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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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At 18 hours, the surface freezing line looks about 10-20 miles closer to DC on the NAM.

Coastal appears do develop further off the coast, but precip still looks decent to the west around hr 21 *compared to 0Z.

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sleet is underway. 

 

Every model gives me at least 7 and some up to 12.

 

I'm not budging from my 1-3. call. 

1-3 is good. I think we'll make it to 2" at least. No sleet over here yet, expect it to start soon.

 

edit: Sleeting over here now as well. Will be interested to see what happens in the next six hours.

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1-3 is good. I think we'll make it to 2" at least. No sleet over here yet, expect it to start soon.

 

edit: Sleeting over here now as well. Will be interested to see what happens in the next six hours.

 

yeah, I'd agree on the 2 is likely. HRR is a total crush-- i

 

No model at a 10-1 is giving us LESS than 7, If we move that to a 6-1 ratio, we are at 4.2 minimum, with maybe 7 max-- Still seems excessive. 

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yeah, I'd agree on the 2 is likely. HRR is a total crush-- i

 

No model at a 10-1 is giving us LESS than 7, If we move that to a 6-1 ratio, we are at 4.2 minimum, with maybe 7 max-- Still seems excessive. 

Seems like it'll really depend on how we do during the day today. If we can get a couple on the ground this afternoon then I could see tacking on a couple more for around 4". But I agree that 4-7 seems to be a bit of a stretch down this way. 

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Filtered sunshine and 40 -- heading towards 50 if we get a period of sun like on March 5?  In Germantown I don't expect anything more than a period of non-sticking snow early tomorrow morning at best.

 

What a kick to the gut after such a bad winter we have a pattern that would have given us good snow a month earlier.  Not one but two storms.  IMO this winter is worse than ones like 2012 or 1998 where we never had a chance and it was just warm.

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Pretty amazing to me that I should end up over 30" for this season after tomorrow. The winter seemed much more crappy than that.

 

That is pretty amazing given that most of the DC/Balt areas will be in the single digits.

 

I see the latest LWX generated snow map has MontCo in the <1" area.  0" is a good call.

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