ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 disagree...if precip is more temps will be lower A little lower for sure but not enough to convince the naysayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 10% chance of nothing 10% chance of drizzle 10% chance of less than one inch 10% chance of 1.0 - 1.5 inches 10% chance of 1.5 - 2.0 inches 10% chance of 2.0 - 2.5 inches 10% chance of 2.5 - 3.0 inches 10% chance of 3.0 - 3.5 inches 10% chance of more than 3.5 inches but less than 5 inches 10% chance of more than 5 inches but less than 36 inches This is a very useful forecast for people trying to figure out what kind of weather conditions to expect. im not totally sold as a fan. i think there are other ways to express uncertainty. even giving 4 solutions with three that have almost equal weight is a little questionable sometimes. this time of year particularly if you miss an initial condition you can see an entire forecast fail, so maybe in reality those three scenarios are close to equal but im not sure it adds a whole lot on what people could expect. might as well just say it could be rain or snow or snow or something. <-- short sentence better than 4 para saying same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 45 minutes till .11 .13 .18 .09 1 1.8 2.1 1.7 I'm not gonna make it...crashing hard. Hope I wake up to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm not gonna make it...crashing hard. Hope I wake up to I'm Ryan Maue and I'm pleased to say I have early Euro access, There you go Stormtracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 10% chance of nothing 10% chance of drizzle 10% chance of less than one inch 10% chance of 1.0 - 1.5 inches 10% chance of 1.5 - 2.0 inches 10% chance of 2.0 - 2.5 inches 10% chance of 2.5 - 3.0 inches 10% chance of 3.0 - 3.5 inches 10% chance of more than 3.5 inches but less than 5 inches 10% chance of more than 5 inches but less than 36 inches This is a very useful forecast for people trying to figure out what kind of weather conditions to expect. Looks good, although I would remove the 10% chance of nothing and move it to the 1.0-1.5 inch zone. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 45 minutes till .11 .13 .18 .09 1 1.8 2.1 1.7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 From a meteorological standpoint, not even related to this storm, good or bad, I cannot wait for the 0z Euro to come out. Want to analyze it thoroughly and see how well its doing early on with regards to our sfc features, temperatures, etc. RTMA could come in handy even to check up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 pretty much the same.. even nam mos thinks its going to be mid-30s in dc for a high. we'll see i guess. 3 weeks of climo mostly cancels out any better air mass. i could maybe see temps like 1-3 colder this go just with better wind flow? Yeah, I would definitely go on the lower end of the MOS envelope ... especially south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd love to see the NAM happen but it probably over did everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Agreed, I am up until the 6Z NAM. This is our last hoorah, I can sleep for 8 20+ months after this. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 this night is sad in a way that's its our last late night model all nighter of the season. Withdrawal coming soon. Nobody who is still awake would be awake if deep in the back of our minds, we didnt think this has the potential of being a special storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 this night is sad in a way that's its our last late night model all nighter of the season. Withdrawal coming soon. Nobody who is still awake would be awake if deep in the back of our minds, we didnt think this has the potential of being a special storm Or they are a masochist...or sadistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd love to see the NAM happen but it probably over did everything. I am rooting for the NAM due to all the NAM haters on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 fixed You know this is a big Euro run when Mitch who is turning 112 tomorrow (Happy B-day) is up this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 this night is sad in a way that's its our last late night model all nighter of the season. Withdrawal coming soon. Nobody who is still awake would be awake if deep in the back of our minds, we didnt think this has the potential of being a special storm As reluctant as I am to say that I am in the same boat as you are, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Personally I am stoked for this storm... I was not a fan of the 3/6 storm as a storm coming straight out of the Midwest never works out in March. However, a storm redeveloping on the coast have much more potential... and if we can get a base coat before sunrise we are in business. The only thing I fear is the redevelopment too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 There seems to be a much more potent severe side to this storm compared to 3/6. Would have to think that's a good sign. Have a feeling this storm may surprise. Talked to a lot of people tonight who had no idea it's supposed to snow. I'm thinking about heading down to snowshoe tomorrow. Should be a great storm down there. Looks like a good northwest flow for the appalachians as the storm departs too. How much you think they can get out of this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You know this is a big Euro run when Mitch who is turning 112 tomorrow (Happy B-day) is up this late. soon enough you'll wish you were in as good a shape at 54 young fella' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 at least there's always next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 soon enough you'll wish you were in as good a shape at 54 young fella' You are probably right, you know I love you and I am just teasing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You are probably right, you know I love you and I am just teasing you. believe me when I say I don't take anyone on the board seriously ...ok, maybe the Jay Hatem forecast guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 at least there's always next year Ninas..following neutrals...following ninas..following ninas rock! MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 believe me when I say I don't take anyone on the board seriously ...ok, maybe the Jay Hatem forecast guy He is on his FB page right now upping his totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 He is on his FB page right now upping his totals. what's Facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think Mitch touched on this... but UKIE through 12z MON is 14mm and actually gets DCA down to 30 degrees for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sooo purrty... SPC WRF. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refl_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 what's Facebook? It's something from the late 1800's a few years before your time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 at least there's always next year geez not again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sooo purrty... SPC WRF. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refl_loop.html Just about to post that but I was afraid I would get laughed off the board, it is all snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sooo purrty... SPC WRF. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refl_loop.html timing seems optimal to mitigate any sun angle issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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