Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 when i lived in nw ct i only knew what the blue 850 line was and just made sure i was north of it. it worked almost every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'll be glad when the GGEM busts hard on this storm so people can stop whoring it as the new Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You don't need to spend your time convincing me...already on the climo side i'm not really trying to gauge expectations...I think it is pretty cool that it will snow on March 25th and may accumulate in some places....i got accumulating snow on 4/7/07, 3/27/11...it isnt that rare.....I just dont think it matters much who gets what in a huge gradient event that is going to be mostly grass anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'll be glad when the GGEM busts hard on this storm so people can stop whoring it as the new Euro. And what happens when it is right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol, you should run the UN. I just don't get it. First of all, his post I don't think was directed at Zwyts, because what he talked about showed he knew the things Thunderman was talking about. Regardless, I don't think the shots need to be taken, personal forecasting skill in the past only builds a resume, its all about now. Let's see how we all do with this snowstorm, whoever is right is getting the last laugh for the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 a bear farts in the forest and a snowstorm hits boston.. ct blizz is one of their star forecasters which gives you a sense of how hard it is to forecast wintry weather up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 if we had new england's climate your weather page would have like 50,000 followers by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i'm not really trying to gauge expectations...I think it is pretty cool that it will snow on March 25th and may accumulate in some places....i got accumulating snow on 4/7/07, 3/27/11...it isnt that rare.....I just dont think it matters much who gets what in a huge gradient event that is going to be mostly grass anyway.. Yeah I'm just pretty happy about seeing some flakes in late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I just don't get it. First of all, his post I don't think was directed at Zwyts, because what he talked about showed he knew the things Thunderman was talking about. Regardless, I don't think the shots need to be taken, personal forecasting skill in the past only builds a resume, its all about now. Let's see how we all do with this snowstorm, whoever is right is getting the last laugh for the next few months. You have to learn the different personalities in this forum before you understand, but I am with you all the way. You seem like a cool level headed guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 when i lived in nw ct i only knew what the blue 850 line was and just made sure i was north of it. it worked almost every time. it would be really fun to have a facebook page forecasting for ORH metro instead of DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You have to learn the different personalities in this forum before you understand, but I am with you all the way. You seem like a cool level headed guy. Just here to enjoy some weather and spread some wealth. Appreciate it, tomorrow evening into Monday should be a fun adventure regardless of outcome, though we are all rooting for the so-called miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 if we had new england's climate your weather page would have like 50,000 followers by now busts happen all the time in boston. Forecasters calling for 4 inches busted when boston got 20 instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 it would be really fun to have a facebook page forecasting for ORH metro instead of DC Metro. You could probably out forecast Will, you should try to set one up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You have to learn the different personalities in this forum before you understand, but I am with you all the way. You seem like a cool level headed guy. the problem is I could get 0.2" on a cartop, Ian could get 1" and Bob Chill could get 4".....or Ian 3" and me T......or whatever....I dont think it makes sense to make a deterministic forecast for this event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Like I said, some random dude in Delaware or on the Eastern Shore of Maryland at sea level will get a legit snowstorm out of this, so it is possible. Just not around these cursed lands. Check the Philly thread during the storm and you'll see it for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just here to enjoy some weather and spread some wealth. Appreciate it, tomorrow evening into Monday should be a fun adventure regardless of outcome, though we are all rooting for the so-called miracle. I really appreciate your analysis, you seem to really know your stuff. Where do you live?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I really appreciate your analysis, you seem to really know your stuff. Where do you live?. Out in the ole hills. Not far from Hag regional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah I'm just pretty happy about seeing some flakes in late march I couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the problem is I could get 0.2" on a cartop, Ian could get 1" and Bob Chill could get 4".....or Ian 3" and me T......or whatever....I dont think it makes sense to make a deterministic forecast for this event.... I totally agree with you on that, but what's the point of having all these models and all these mets if you cannot make a forecast with all this info. I will give Mark his props, he forecast's once usually and sticks to his guns and is usually right. If he does bust he comes back right away and explains what he did wrong. It is a shame he does not have Wes's personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the problem is I could get 0.2" on a cartop, Ian could get 1" and Bob Chill could get 4".....or Ian 3" and me T......or whatever....I dont think it makes sense to make a deterministic forecast for this event.... i guess, tho in some ways everyone using probabilities for everything seems like a cop out. at some point forecasts will have 12 categories or potential including every possible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 45 minutes till .11 .13 .18 .09 1 1.8 2.1 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just more of curiosity as something I have noticed over this way ... but how is MOS for tomorrow comparing to how it looked for 3/5 around DC? It is almost identical over this way. Again, not that means much with precip moving in a little earlier this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Out in the ole hills. Not far from Hag regional. Ah, so your in a great spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 45 minutes till .11 .13 .18 .09 1 1.8 2.1 1.7 This is a really funny post, and its probably an accurate prediction. Euro might moisten up a bit if I had to put my money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 45 minutes till .11 .13 .18 .09 1 1.8 2.1 1.7 I agree with Mitch, I think you are wrong. I say more precip but similar temps to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ah, so your in a great spot for this one. Stay up for the euro tonight, I expect some entertainment regardless of outcome. Its a weekend, so we should have some folks in here, plus its the night before our supposed storm, so let's enjoy tracking one last winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I agree with Mitch, I think you are wrong. I say more precip but similar temps to 12Z. disagree...if precip is more temps will be lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just more of curiosity as something I have noticed over this way ... but how is MOS for tomorrow comparing to how it looked for 3/5 around DC? It is almost identical over this way. Again, not that means much with precip moving in a little earlier this time. pretty much the same.. even nam mos thinks its going to be mid-30s in dc for a high. we'll see i guess. 3 weeks of climo mostly cancels out any better air mass. i could maybe see temps like 1-3 colder this go just with better wind flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i guess, tho in some ways everyone using probabilities for everything seems like a cop out. at some point forecasts will have 12 categories or potential including every possible solution. 10% chance of nothing 10% chance of drizzle 10% chance of less than one inch 10% chance of 1.0 - 1.5 inches 10% chance of 1.5 - 2.0 inches 10% chance of 2.0 - 2.5 inches 10% chance of 2.5 - 3.0 inches 10% chance of 3.0 - 3.5 inches 10% chance of more than 3.5 inches but less than 5 inches 10% chance of more than 5 inches but less than 36 inches This is a very useful forecast for people trying to figure out what kind of weather conditions to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Stay up for the euro tonight, I expect some entertainment regardless of outcome. Its a weekend, so we should have some folks in here, plus its the night before our supposed storm, so let's enjoy tracking one last winter event. Agreed, I am up until the 6Z NAM. This is our last hoorah, I can sleep for 8 months after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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