ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 there's 450 in this thread Speaking of.. Wes has made two posts in this thread. One said rain or non sticking snow and the other said doesn't look decent to me. Close it down. Wes is wrong once every 20 years, let's hope this is a once in a lifetime thing and he is wrong twice in 3 weeks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Read more, post less. Maybe the problem is that you aren't skilled enough to interpret them properly. There is a lot more that goes into forecasting than just looking at models. It is a learned art. A huge factor that makes a good forecaster is experience ... not how well they regurgitate a model. I'm pretty sure Matt can smash you in producing forecasts for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm pretty sure Matt can smash you in producing forecasts for the DC area. After Wes, I think he knows this area better than anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Let's lighten up the mood in here, the new GGEM looks great. Yeah, really. Surely a month ago, there'd be no yapping about these issues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well technically they do from an energy sense (increased incoming sw), we just have poor land surface physics, ESP in the case of snow so we know the american models are typically too cold and too wet with DC winter events....we know they have given us way more snow than we have received the last 2 winters...we know they dont perform well outside a nino....we know a miller B has huge bust potential and that this is a complex setup...we know it was 55 today....we know it will be upper 40s tomorrow...we know the sun angle is similar to early fall,....we know our average high is almost 60...we know our low max is above freezing and we have never had a 32 or lower high after 3/25 ever...we know it hasnt snowed in DC more than 2" this late since 1964....we know we have no sfc high...we know the models were too cold and wet on March 6th.....we know none of the models even with their biases has the sfc below freezing.....so why would anyone with this knowledge forecast a snowstorm for the coastal plain?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Even with climo, what more can we expect from the models at this point? <24 hours until the first flakes and it's practically a best case scenario for this time a year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Let's lighten up the mood in here, the new GGEM looks great. i heard the GGEM is the new Euro.. la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Read more, post less. Maybe the problem is that you aren't skilled enough to interpret them properly. There is a lot more that goes into forecasting than just looking at models. It is a learned art. A huge factor that makes a good forecaster is experience ... not how well they regurgitate a model. lol...i can outforecast you in my sleep.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i heard the GGEM is the new Euro.. la la lock it up The guys up in Boston swear it has been the best model in their area since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The guys up in Boston swear it has been the best model in their area since the upgrade. those guys are full of crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 we're all pretty frustrated at this point whatever happens, happens, but it would be nice to shove a few inches of snow up the people I have heard out and about complaining how cold it's been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 lol...i can outforecast you in my sleep.... I don't even think he was taking a shot at you, I think he meant people need to read more and post less... did you read it and start to sense that tone in his post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Let's lighten up the mood in here, the new GGEM looks great. you are so right about lighten up and this and a lot being posted should be in banter.LIKE I said before the Euro will be key. Hope it is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 those guys are full of crap before and/or after the upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The guys up in Boston swear it has been the best model in their area since the upgrade. from what i have seen its been pretty good since the upgrade. Actually it kept calling for Rain on the march 6 event and everyone ignored it because it was the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I don't even think he was taking a shot at you, I think he meant people need to read more and post less... did you read it and start to sense that tone in his post? Lol, you should run the UN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 those guys are full of crap http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 you are so right about lighten up and this and a lot being posted should be in banter.LIKE I said before the Euro will be key. Hope it is good. Model runs are not "key". What is actually going to develop and happen is "key". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Is that Ellinwood?...that is a really good map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Wrong! This will be a once in a lifetime storm as long as we get 2 inches of coating before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 so we know the american models are typically too cold and too wet with DC winter events....we know they have given us way more snow than we have received the last 2 winters...we know they dont perform well outside a nino....we know a miller B has huge bust potential and that this is a complex setup...we know it was 55 today....we know it will be upper 40s tomorrow...we know the sun angle is similar to early fall,....we know our average high is almost 60...we know our low max is above freezing and we have never had a 32 or lower high after 3/25 ever...we know it hasnt snowed in DC more than 2" this late since 1964....we know we have no sfc high...we know the models were too cold and wet on March 6th.....we know none of the models even with their biases has the sfc below freezing.....so why would anyone with this knowledge forecast a snowstorm for the coastal plain?.... You don't need to spend your time convincing me...already on the climo side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Is that Ellinwood?...that is a really good map is that a 0 for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Model runs are not "key". What is actually going to develop and happen is "key". yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Is that Ellinwood?...that is a really good map Yup it sure is, he is actually an excellent forecaster when you take away his attitude. Sorta like you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You can just FEEL the hostility in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 from what i have seen its been pretty good since the upgrade. Actually it kept calling for Rain on the march 6 event and everyone ignored it because it was the GGEM and it is snow http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c40_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c42_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 before and/or after the upgrade? a bear farts in the forest and a snowstorm hits boston.. ct blizz is one of their star forecasters which gives you a sense of how hard it is to forecast wintry weather up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You can just FEEL the hostility in this thread Can slice through it like a hot knife through butter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 is that a 0 for DC? Who cares about DC, Leesburg is getting 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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