Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yep we got named Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM'ED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Surface temps are still an issue, though. They don't really get below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ha, NAM said "whap, take that". Think I'll wait for the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Surface temps are still an issue, though. They don't really get below 0C. Take those temps and hug them because they are unrealistically low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The storm for the DC metro is what happens between 5am and 8am. The rest is irrelevant. Out west with the early stuff and east with the coastal can do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 1" QPF for all... 1.25 -1.50 QPF NE VA/DCA/C MD and BWI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Does it give a realistic best case scenario, or is it on shrooms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Does it give a realistic best case scenario, or is it on shrooms? The NAM? It's constantly on drugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Best case scenario for DC and immediate burbs is the stuff falling between 3z and 12z. The fantasy backlash, coastal stuff isn't going to work. 2" is probably the very best we can do, and that's probably pushing it. CT-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Best case scenario for DC and immediate burbs is the stuff falling between 3z and 12z. The fantasy backlash, coastal stuff isn't going to work. 2" is probably the very best we can do, and that's probably pushing it. CT-1" Bastardi has about 4" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks pretty realistic. 7 to 12 for the DC/Bal corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Best case scenario for DC and immediate burbs is the stuff falling between 3z and 12z. The fantasy backlash, coastal stuff isn't going to work. 2" is probably the very best we can do, and that's probably pushing it. CT-1" 6hr precip ending 12z: 12z NAM: close to 0.4" 06z GFS: a little over 0.3" 00z Euro: 0.24" Shave a little off the euro, melt a little, and maybe 1-1.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I am a lttle encouraged... the biggest difference in my opinion between this storm and the last debacle is the air mass... it is 41 degrees imby with the sun shining in late March.. that seems to be an anomoly.. with most of the modeled snow coming in during the day time the sun angle will be hard to overcome.. but a slushy inch or two on the grass is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Best case scenario for DC and immediate burbs is the stuff falling between 3z and 12z. The fantasy backlash, coastal stuff isn't going to work. 2" is probably the very best we can do, and that's probably pushing it. CT-1" Yeah, but if you can get a solid coating before sunrise, moderate snow from 7-10 would accumulate easily even with temps a degree or two above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 6hr precip ending 12z: 12z NAM: close to 0.4" 06z GFS: a little over 0.3" 00z Euro: 0.24" Shave a little off the euro, melt a little, and maybe 1-1.5"? That's a solid call IMO Yeah, but if you can get a solid coating before sunrise, moderate snow from 7-10 would accumulate easily even with temps a degree or two above. Ya know, I was thinking about that. Say we get a nice foundation laid first....that should help, one would think. Thats why I was saying 2" might be possible...down here I mean. For you, 2 to 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 By the way, for IAD, the total mean snow on the 09z SREF plume increased from 6.14" (03z) to 6.89". for DCA the plumes pretty much stayed the same. It's surprising, though. There's noticeable clustering in the plumes, relative to the previous run. Maybe the models will come into better agreement with each other soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks pretty realistic. 7 to 12 for the DC/Bal corridor. Numbers aside, I am just glad to finally see a clown map with a different orientation. I am sure no one cares, but it has gotten really old seeing that map flipped all winter with western areas getting pounded and BWI NE getting barely any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 By the way, for IAD, the total mean snow on the 09z SREF plume increased from 6.14" (03z) to 6.89". for DCA the plumes pretty much stayed the same. It's surprising, though. There's noticeable clustering in the plumes, relative to the previous run. Maybe the models will come into better agreement with each other soon? Plumes were terrible with the 3/6 storm. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I am a lttle encouraged... the biggest difference in my opinion between this storm and the last debacle is the air mass... it is 41 degrees imby with the sun shining in late March.. that seems to be an anomoly.. with most of the modeled snow coming in during the day time the sun angle will be hard to overcome.. but a slushy inch or two on the grass is not out of the question. the air mass has been blown up a little much.. it's still pretty sucky overall since it's late march. im betting the end result in temps will be quite similar to mar 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Numbers aside, I am just glad to finally see a clown map with a different orientation. I am sure no one cares, but it has gotten really old seeing that map flipped all winter with western areas getting pounded and BWI NE getting barely any precip. Well, they (somewhat) get there's in the map before that one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Plumes were terrible with the 3/6 storm. Awful. Everything was terrible with the 3/6 storm (except the Euro, maybe). But, yeah, I know. I just have nothing better to do than to look at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 the air mass has been blown up a little much.. it's still pretty sucky overall since it's late march. im betting the end result in temps will be quite similar to mar 6. It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago. In late March. Airmass is vastly different than before. Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass. Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks pretty realistic. 7 to 12 for the DC/Bal corridor. I buy it. It happened in 1942 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago. In late March. Airmass is vastly different than before. Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass. Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6 yeah we'll see.. im talking sfc temps, and 1-2 degrees isn't a massive difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago. In late March. Airmass is vastly different than before. Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass. Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6 That's a valid point. It was a terrible airmass on March 6, just awful. True, it is 3 weeks later, so sun angle is a bigger factor, but just a week ago we had an airmass capable of holding our temps below freezing all day with zero precip between 8 am and 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 RGEM looks pretty good! http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 RGEM looks pretty good! http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_50.gif The page non trouveé. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The page non trouveé. Yea I changed the link. Just click on the 12z, 36 and 48 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 the air mass has been blown up a little much.. it's still pretty sucky overall since it's late march. im betting the end result in temps will be quite similar to mar 6. It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago. In late March. Airmass is vastly different than before. Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass. Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6 If a lot of qpf falls after dark Sunday and its 32 degrees, you guys should be good. 32 degrees at night is the same no matter if it's late March or late January. I'm interested in this at DCA due to the interest in seeing something fairly historic happen. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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