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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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Best case scenario for DC and immediate burbs is the stuff falling between 3z and 12z.   The fantasy backlash, coastal stuff isn't going to work.  2" is probably the very best we can do, and that's probably pushing it.     CT-1"

 

6hr precip ending 12z:

 

12z NAM: close to 0.4"

06z GFS: a little over 0.3"

00z Euro: 0.24"

 

Shave a little off the euro, melt a little, and maybe 1-1.5"?

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I am a lttle encouraged... the biggest difference in my opinion between this storm and the last debacle is the air mass... it is 41 degrees imby with the sun shining in late March.. that seems to be an anomoly.. with most of the modeled snow coming in during the day time the sun angle will be hard to overcome.. but a slushy inch or two on the grass is not out of the question. 

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Best case scenario for DC and immediate burbs is the stuff falling between 3z and 12z. The fantasy backlash, coastal stuff isn't going to work. 2" is probably the very best we can do, and that's probably pushing it. CT-1"

Yeah, but if you can get a solid coating before sunrise, moderate snow from 7-10 would accumulate easily even with temps a degree or two above.

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6hr precip ending 12z:

 

12z NAM: close to 0.4"

06z GFS: a little over 0.3"

00z Euro: 0.24"

 

Shave a little off the euro, melt a little, and maybe 1-1.5"?

 

That's a solid call IMO

Yeah, but if you can get a solid coating before sunrise, moderate snow from 7-10 would accumulate easily even with temps a degree or two above.

Ya know, I was thinking about that.   Say we get a nice foundation laid first....that should help, one would think.   Thats why I was saying 2" might be possible...down here I mean.  For you, 2 to 4?

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By the way,

 

for IAD, the total mean snow on the 09z SREF plume increased from 6.14" (03z) to 6.89".

 

for DCA the plumes pretty much stayed the same.

 

It's surprising, though. There's noticeable clustering in the plumes, relative to the previous run. Maybe the models will come into better agreement with each other soon?

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By the way,

 

for IAD, the total mean snow on the 09z SREF plume increased from 6.14" (03z) to 6.89".

 

for DCA the plumes pretty much stayed the same.

 

It's surprising, though. There's noticeable clustering in the plumes, relative to the previous run. Maybe the models will come into better agreement with each other soon?

Plumes were terrible with the 3/6 storm.  Awful.

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I am a lttle encouraged... the biggest difference in my opinion between this storm and the last debacle is the air mass... it is 41 degrees imby with the sun shining in late March.. that seems to be an anomoly.. with most of the modeled snow coming in during the day time the sun angle will be hard to overcome.. but a slushy inch or two on the grass is not out of the question. 

 

the air mass has been blown up a little much.. it's still pretty sucky overall since it's late march. im betting the end result in temps will be quite similar to mar 6.

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Numbers aside, I am just glad to finally see a clown map with a different orientation. I am sure no one cares, but it has gotten really old seeing that map flipped all winter with western areas getting pounded and BWI NE getting barely any precip.

Well, they (somewhat) get there's in the map before that one:

 

12znamsnow_NE048.gif

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the air mass has been blown up a little much.. it's still pretty sucky overall since it's late march. im betting the end result in temps will be quite similar to mar 6.

It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago.  In late March.

 

Airmass is vastly different than before.   Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass.     Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6

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It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago.  In late March.

 

Airmass is vastly different than before.   Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass.     Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6

 

yeah we'll see.. im talking sfc temps, and 1-2 degrees isn't a massive difference.

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It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago. In late March.

Airmass is vastly different than before. Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass. Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6

That's a valid point. It was a terrible airmass on March 6, just awful. True, it is 3 weeks later, so sun angle is a bigger factor, but just a week ago we had an airmass capable of holding our temps below freezing all day with zero precip between 8 am and 2 pm.

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the air mass has been blown up a little much.. it's still pretty sucky overall since it's late march. im betting the end result in temps will be quite similar to mar 6.

 

It was 28 degrees at DCA 2 nights ago.  In late March.

 

Airmass is vastly different than before.   Results will probably be the same, but doubtful it's the airmass.     Air mass is better, but late sun angle is the mitigating factor vs 3/6

 

If a lot of qpf falls after dark Sunday and its 32 degrees, you guys should be good. 32 degrees at night is the same no matter if it's late March or late January. I'm interested in this at DCA due to the interest in seeing something fairly historic happen. Good luck. 

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