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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course

I won't be up for it, but I predict the Euro will increase qpf and get to real close to 1"

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Well, of course nobody is going to forecast that now.  But I'm sure it's in the back of people's minds as not out of the realm of possibility.  What do you do if all the models (including the Euro) continue showing just the scenario you describe in tomorrows 12Z, 18Z, etc. cycles?  Then you kind of have to seriously think of forecasting just that.

I ALWAYS have alternate forecasts in the back of my mind when there is a possible "trend" or shift such as this one.  Makes it MUCH easier to transition to another solution in your forecasts if you need to.  I also think it helps you not to jump on the train too much.

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funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course

Well, if this were Jan. 25 or even Feb. 25, this would easily be a MECS/HECS and there'd probably be watches extending all the way out to the coast.

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I ALWAYS have alternate forecasts in the back of my mind when there is a possible "trend" or shift such as this one.  Makes it MUCH easier to transition to another solution in your forecasts if you need to.  I also think it helps you not to jump on the train too much.

Yup, exactly what I was trying to say more or less, though you worded it a bit more artfully than I did.  Actually, what would make it so much easier would be if it were a month or more ago!  No "climo" issues, no "sun angle", etc.

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After this storm, is there any possibility of a thread or discussion, about the models? I mean, after watching the differences, and listening to the different reasons and yeahs and nays, there is a lot to sort out. Recently there has been some great discussion and some really informative analysis from various sources. Wouldn't it be great to have a permanent resource for information on the models for everyone to utilize? Just a thought...

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i dont think the models matter much...they already suck pretty bad....I feel pretty good about ignoring them when show a snowstorm for the coastal plain on March 25th.....why are we taking the NAM/GFS seriously at all?

Maybe a stupid question but if they don't matter why do you look at them?.

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The models give us way way more snow than we actually receive...is this pattern suddenly going to end on March 25th?

there have been a few unusual events in DC in the past 100  years. If its happened before...it can happen again. Maybe a 980 type low off the east coast with a record low AO and NAO can deliver something more than the usual. I got 1.5 inches last Monday from a garbage event without heavy rates and marginal temps

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there have been a few unusual events in DC in the past 100  years. If its happened before...it can happen again. Maybe a 980 type low off the east coast with a record low AO and NAO can deliver something more than the usual. I got 1.5 inches last Monday from a garbage event without heavy rates and marginal temps

 

you've had a pretty solid winter

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almost nobody knows how to use them properly

They're guidance, not God. They should be used to lead you in a direction, and your forecasting angle is led by a certain model in certain instances. In the same way you say they are horrible, to someone somewhere they are serving an efficient purpose. 

 

I don't know if you make your own forecasts typically, but its clear in this instance where you stand. The model performance has been poor, and for that reason your argument has some credence. However, it just seems you're sending the wrong message to some readers. I see your corner, maybe others don't. 

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almost nobody knows how to use them properly

who knows exactly how it plays, but Ian did post the map from the Euro putting us in the 4-8" band

that along with all the other models showing warning criteria+ snows and I think there's a decent chance at 2"+ in DCA and much more in the favored hills

that means all the models, including the Euro, would have to be wrong

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there isnt any compelling reason to care about the GFS/NAM...they are garbage and they aren't skilled enough to get a solution right on march 25th

 

garbage in what way? Being able to predict the final outcome the night before? the GFS has had this storm for 8-9 days more...thats not a garbage model with regards to windows at least. The GFS shouldnt be criticized for missing a storm a day out....thats why we have high resolution models. We shouldnt really even be using it right now

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because I know their biases and what they are useful for...

If you have experience in the field, then you should know how to utilize your tools as they have been presented to you. Weather agencies provide a plethora of guidance to us to serve multiple purposes from different corners of the meteorological and forecasting field(s). Whether or not we displace their usefulness is a whole other category. The NAM believe it or not is not the worst model around the clock, i.e. with convection as Ian has stated. Additionally, the GFS and its struggles with phasing, the Euro over amplifying storms. The Euro performed well with Sandy, but it was not pure bred tropical according to some. Post Mortem I say it was, but I'm getting way off topic in that respect. 

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there isnt any compelling reason to care about the GFS/NAM...they are garbage and they aren't skilled enough to get a solution right on march 25th

Read more, post less.  Maybe the problem is that you aren't skilled enough to interpret them properly.  There is a lot more that goes into forecasting than just looking at models.  It is a learned art.  A huge factor that makes a good forecaster is experience ... not how well they regurgitate a model.

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If you have experience in the field, then you should know how to utilize your tools as they have been presented to you. Weather agencies provide a plethora of guidance to us to serve multiple purposes from different corners of the meteorological and forecasting field(s). Whether or not we displace their usefulness is a whole other category. The NAM believe it or not is not the worst model around the clock, i.e. with convection as Ian has stated. Additionally, the GFS and its struggles with phasing, the Euro over amplifying storms. The Euro performed well with Sandy, but it was not pure bred tropical according to some. Post Mortem I say it was, but I'm getting way off topic in that respect. 

Pretty good assessment here.

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if you read this board, you've looked at them

 

there's 450 in this thread

 

Speaking of.. Wes has made two posts in this thread. One said rain or non sticking snow and the other said doesn't look decent to me. Close it down.

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