stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... Why do you keep asking why? It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC. All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close. I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking. An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why do you keep asking why? It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC. All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close. I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking. An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still I just dont see it being that hard of a forecast because I think getting it "correct" is kind of inconsequential.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I just dont see it being that hard of a forecast because I think getting it "correct" is kind of inconsequential.... In the sense that 1" of snow on the grass and not the roads is the same as 6" on the grass and not the roads? If so, that way makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol Baltimore, Lol Eastern Shore yea right. They are under intense persistent banding and in the QPF jackpot. I wouldn't go T-1 there it should be pounding silver dollars for 9 hours straight. Edit: Okay, cut it in half 4-8" jackpot on the Del Marva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why do you keep asking why? It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC. All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close. I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking. An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still remember the day when we had model consensus like this we would be psyched? instead, all we do is doubt them but that's the diff between here and further north....when the models predict snow, they get it and we don't, at least not lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The Euro will tell all if it is on board book it! If not back to square one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... I wouldn't be so blase about it. Though yes, at this time I would certainly play down any chances for heavy accumulation in the metro area which LWX has pretty much done. But as I said, if these indications continue through tomorrow, you can't just ignore that even with climo, time of year, etc. Besides, I was mostly thinking in terms of impact for decision makers (e.g., Fed. govt.). There were a couple of times this year where they had to make a call...one was the closure on the March 6 bust, and I recall another delayed arrival for what turned out to be light drizzle. Both got heavy criticism, though I don't blame the calls given the indications at the time. You don't want to end up with another similar thing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 In the sense that 1" of snow on the grass and not the roads is the same as 6" on the grass and not the roads? If so, that way makes more sense. what is the "worst" case scenario?....32-33 and a period of +SN and road accumulations down to sea level?...who is going to forecast that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... it depends on really the timing. If its snowing heavily between 2am and 7am, there isnt a reason DCA cant pick up 2 or so inches right on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I wouldn't worry much if I was a forecaster. Odds of a high impact "street event" is tiny. Especially the main roads. I only care about my grass and local sledding hill. My fescue is nervous. I saw it shaking in the breeze earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 just draw a contour around the areas that get dark greened and call it t-8 and then the area around it 0 to maybe 8 if the band shifts. disclaimer: could also be a mod rain snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ukie looks nice for just 6 hrs of precip ending 12z Monday http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h36&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 what is the "worst" case scenario?....32-33 and a period of +SN and road accumulations down to sea level?...who is going to forecast that? Well, of course nobody is going to forecast that now. But I'm sure it's in the back of people's minds as not out of the realm of possibility. What do you do if all the models (including the Euro) continue showing just the scenario you describe in tomorrows 12Z, 18Z, etc. cycles? Then you kind of have to seriously think of forecasting just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 just draw a contour around the areas that get dark greened and call it t-8 and then the area around it 0 to maybe 8 if the band shifts. disclaimer: could also be a mod rain snow mix. Untitled-17.gif I think thru 15 z will be safe for snow after 15z, that's when the wheels start to loosen or come off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course I won't be up for it, but I predict the Euro will increase qpf and get to real close to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well, of course nobody is going to forecast that now. But I'm sure it's in the back of people's minds as not out of the realm of possibility. What do you do if all the models (including the Euro) continue showing just the scenario you describe in tomorrows 12Z, 18Z, etc. cycles? Then you kind of have to seriously think of forecasting just that. I ALWAYS have alternate forecasts in the back of my mind when there is a possible "trend" or shift such as this one. Makes it MUCH easier to transition to another solution in your forecasts if you need to. I also think it helps you not to jump on the train too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course Well, if this were Jan. 25 or even Feb. 25, this would easily be a MECS/HECS and there'd probably be watches extending all the way out to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I won't be up for it, but I predict the Euro will increase qpf and get to real close to 1" i always think that the euro will cave like that but it never does. Even with 23 other models showing an inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i dont think the models matter much...they already suck pretty bad....I feel pretty good about ignoring them when show a snowstorm for the coastal plain on March 25th.....why are we taking the NAM/GFS seriously at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I ALWAYS have alternate forecasts in the back of my mind when there is a possible "trend" or shift such as this one. Makes it MUCH easier to transition to another solution in your forecasts if you need to. I also think it helps you not to jump on the train too much. Yup, exactly what I was trying to say more or less, though you worded it a bit more artfully than I did. Actually, what would make it so much easier would be if it were a month or more ago! No "climo" issues, no "sun angle", etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course EXCEPT for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i dont think the models matter much...they already suck pretty bad....I feel pretty good about ignoring them when show a snowstorm for the coastal plain on March 25th.....why are we taking the NAM/GFS seriously at all? Dr. No has arrived two hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The models give us way way more snow than we actually receive...is this pattern suddenly going to end on March 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 if you think about this march...We have had 15-30 inches of snow modeled for us the night before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 After this storm, is there any possibility of a thread or discussion, about the models? I mean, after watching the differences, and listening to the different reasons and yeahs and nays, there is a lot to sort out. Recently there has been some great discussion and some really informative analysis from various sources. Wouldn't it be great to have a permanent resource for information on the models for everyone to utilize? Just a thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 if you think about this march...We have had 15-30 inches of snow modeled for us the night before the event there isnt any compelling reason to care about the GFS/NAM...they are garbage and they aren't skilled enough to get a solution right on march 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i dont think the models matter much...they already suck pretty bad....I feel pretty good about ignoring them when show a snowstorm for the coastal plain on March 25th.....why are we taking the NAM/GFS seriously at all? Maybe a stupid question but if they don't matter why do you look at them?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 After this storm, is there any possibility of a thread or discussion, about the models? I mean, after watching the differences, and listening to the different reasons and yeahs and nays, there is a lot to sort out. Recently there has been some great discussion and some really informative analysis from various sources. Wouldn't it be great to have a permanent resource for information on the models for everyone to utilize? Just a thought... almost nobody knows how to use them properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The models give us way way more snow than we actually receive...is this pattern suddenly going to end on March 25th? there have been a few unusual events in DC in the past 100 years. If its happened before...it can happen again. Maybe a 980 type low off the east coast with a record low AO and NAO can deliver something more than the usual. I got 1.5 inches last Monday from a garbage event without heavy rates and marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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