mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course I won't be up for it, but I predict the Euro will increase qpf and get to real close to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well, of course nobody is going to forecast that now. But I'm sure it's in the back of people's minds as not out of the realm of possibility. What do you do if all the models (including the Euro) continue showing just the scenario you describe in tomorrows 12Z, 18Z, etc. cycles? Then you kind of have to seriously think of forecasting just that. I ALWAYS have alternate forecasts in the back of my mind when there is a possible "trend" or shift such as this one. Makes it MUCH easier to transition to another solution in your forecasts if you need to. I also think it helps you not to jump on the train too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course Well, if this were Jan. 25 or even Feb. 25, this would easily be a MECS/HECS and there'd probably be watches extending all the way out to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I won't be up for it, but I predict the Euro will increase qpf and get to real close to 1" i always think that the euro will cave like that but it never does. Even with 23 other models showing an inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I ALWAYS have alternate forecasts in the back of my mind when there is a possible "trend" or shift such as this one. Makes it MUCH easier to transition to another solution in your forecasts if you need to. I also think it helps you not to jump on the train too much. Yup, exactly what I was trying to say more or less, though you worded it a bit more artfully than I did. Actually, what would make it so much easier would be if it were a month or more ago! No "climo" issues, no "sun angle", etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course EXCEPT for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i dont think the models matter much...they already suck pretty bad....I feel pretty good about ignoring them when show a snowstorm for the coastal plain on March 25th.....why are we taking the NAM/GFS seriously at all? Dr. No has arrived two hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 if you think about this march...We have had 15-30 inches of snow modeled for us the night before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 After this storm, is there any possibility of a thread or discussion, about the models? I mean, after watching the differences, and listening to the different reasons and yeahs and nays, there is a lot to sort out. Recently there has been some great discussion and some really informative analysis from various sources. Wouldn't it be great to have a permanent resource for information on the models for everyone to utilize? Just a thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i dont think the models matter much...they already suck pretty bad....I feel pretty good about ignoring them when show a snowstorm for the coastal plain on March 25th.....why are we taking the NAM/GFS seriously at all? Maybe a stupid question but if they don't matter why do you look at them?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The models give us way way more snow than we actually receive...is this pattern suddenly going to end on March 25th? there have been a few unusual events in DC in the past 100 years. If its happened before...it can happen again. Maybe a 980 type low off the east coast with a record low AO and NAO can deliver something more than the usual. I got 1.5 inches last Monday from a garbage event without heavy rates and marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 there have been a few unusual events in DC in the past 100 years. If its happened before...it can happen again. Maybe a 980 type low off the east coast with a record low AO and NAO can deliver something more than the usual. I got 1.5 inches last Monday from a garbage event without heavy rates and marginal temps you've had a pretty solid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 almost nobody knows how to use them properly They're guidance, not God. They should be used to lead you in a direction, and your forecasting angle is led by a certain model in certain instances. In the same way you say they are horrible, to someone somewhere they are serving an efficient purpose. I don't know if you make your own forecasts typically, but its clear in this instance where you stand. The model performance has been poor, and for that reason your argument has some credence. However, it just seems you're sending the wrong message to some readers. I see your corner, maybe others don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 because I know their biases and what they are useful for... What if the Euro shows 1" QPF what will you say then?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 almost nobody knows how to use them properly who knows exactly how it plays, but Ian did post the map from the Euro putting us in the 4-8" band that along with all the other models showing warning criteria+ snows and I think there's a decent chance at 2"+ in DCA and much more in the favored hills that means all the models, including the Euro, would have to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 What if the Euro shows 1" QPF what will you say then?. It still doesn't change the fact you have an inch falling at 34 at the end of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 there isnt any compelling reason to care about the GFS/NAM...they are garbage and they aren't skilled enough to get a solution right on march 25th garbage in what way? Being able to predict the final outcome the night before? the GFS has had this storm for 8-9 days more...thats not a garbage model with regards to windows at least. The GFS shouldnt be criticized for missing a storm a day out....thats why we have high resolution models. We shouldnt really even be using it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 because I know their biases and what they are useful for... If you have experience in the field, then you should know how to utilize your tools as they have been presented to you. Weather agencies provide a plethora of guidance to us to serve multiple purposes from different corners of the meteorological and forecasting field(s). Whether or not we displace their usefulness is a whole other category. The NAM believe it or not is not the worst model around the clock, i.e. with convection as Ian has stated. Additionally, the GFS and its struggles with phasing, the Euro over amplifying storms. The Euro performed well with Sandy, but it was not pure bred tropical according to some. Post Mortem I say it was, but I'm getting way off topic in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 how were the models for those events? and how many times did the models show something late in the season and it didnt materialize I dont remember any model showing an event like this so late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 you use snow maps? sure, like you and every met have done over the years don't give yourself too much credit the day will come when just poo-pooing the models will fail as a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It still doesn't change the fact you have an inch falling at 34 at the end of march. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 models dont know it is march 25th... Well technically they do from an energy sense (increased incoming sw), we just have poor land surface physics, ESP in the case of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 models dont know it is march 25th... Definitely seems to be a problem. I actually kinda doubt the euro is too warm, why would it be? It's already pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 sure, like you and every met have done over the years don't give yourself too much credit the day will come when just poo-pooing the models will fail as a forecast That day could be 24 hours away. Is it likely? Probably not. I'll give my final forecast later tonight or in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 there isnt any compelling reason to care about the GFS/NAM...they are garbage and they aren't skilled enough to get a solution right on march 25th Read more, post less. Maybe the problem is that you aren't skilled enough to interpret them properly. There is a lot more that goes into forecasting than just looking at models. It is a learned art. A huge factor that makes a good forecaster is experience ... not how well they regurgitate a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 this is silly...I have 3 f-ucking inches this winter...Make a forecast for your backyard and I will do the same....I just need your approximate location and elevation Stevenson, MD 500' , let's hear my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 i've never used a snow map once in my life...never..I dont even look at them if you read this board, you've looked at them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If you have experience in the field, then you should know how to utilize your tools as they have been presented to you. Weather agencies provide a plethora of guidance to us to serve multiple purposes from different corners of the meteorological and forecasting field(s). Whether or not we displace their usefulness is a whole other category. The NAM believe it or not is not the worst model around the clock, i.e. with convection as Ian has stated. Additionally, the GFS and its struggles with phasing, the Euro over amplifying storms. The Euro performed well with Sandy, but it was not pure bred tropical according to some. Post Mortem I say it was, but I'm getting way off topic in that respect. Pretty good assessment here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 almost nobody knows how to use them properly More the reason to open some sort of dialogue on this subject. Knowledge is power and the more knowledge the members of this forum possess the more focused and accurate the dialogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 if you read this board, you've looked at them there's 450 in this thread Speaking of.. Wes has made two posts in this thread. One said rain or non sticking snow and the other said doesn't look decent to me. Close it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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