skinsdomination09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 for who? what kind of impact will snow falling at 3pm at 35 degrees have? The same impact it had 17 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RAP with front edge snow to Charlottesville by 3pm tomorrow? SW VA getting smashed. Not sure how reliable RAP is tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? It's weather.. anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 for who? what kind of impact will snow falling at 3pm at 35 degrees have? Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd be surprised if DC sees more than a car-topper from this- and I don't say this just because of 3/6. Temps are roughly 34-35 and this antecedent airmass is not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? we have more dustings than any other year on record might as well keep padding it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? Sad...lost opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 we have more dustings than any other year on record might as well keep padding it At least it feels better happening in mid spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the track and evolution is better for sure. 3/6 might have worked if it came together differently. again odd the euro was among the first to show the enhanced thump right nw of the stack etc. then it pushed it east.. now the american models over and over like that BWI-PHL corridor toward the coast. DC kinda right on the edge.. heartbreak radars and such for us probably. these big 500 lows coming in too far north on a more W to E path seem to favor development too late for me to really cash in but can crush in ne md to phl in winter for sure. if these 'bigger' solutions happen you prob still end up with localized striping with perhaps much lower totals in the surrounding areas that the snow maps think get a general 5-10" of snow. It is still a real longshot to get anything decent around here, but if it does come in at around 10 p.m. tomorrow night that should help with accumulation a lot. The RAP has been good with timing so that should at least bode well for getting snow here earlier than the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sad...lost opportunity Waste of time. Much more productive in March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 but I totally agree...seeing snow fall is fine with me...I will be at work at 75'....why on 3/25 should I care if it sticks well to the medians and trashcans Amen brother. I may walk up to 100' to see the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... That's what I was thinking. Would hate to be on the hot seat for this at this time of year. I agree, I'd probably "undercut" things at this point but man, if this still looks real as tomorrow goes on, you'd have to pull the trigger more. You know there's a lot of caution after the closures on March 6, last thing they'd want is a warning for heavy snows and see the same thing happen. Actually, I would not be surprised if the Feds have delayed arrival with optional telework/unscheduled leave for Monday, almost regardless of what goes down. Lots of schools are on spring break next week (MoCo is, at least), so many of them might not even be affected with having to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This is clearly better than 3/6 as modeled. We don't get the raging easterlies and boundary layer is better at 8am, prime snowfall period. I like it for 2" minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? Wouldn't mind at least seeing some flakes falling on my birthday, that's for sure! Even better if it accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 10 am tomorrow on the HRRR http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2013032323&plot_type=1ref_sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 yeah...I dont think it really matters what happens.... decent precip for a 3 hr period. that could be 1"/hr snow if it was perfect.. which might give us 1-2 accum. euro will prob have .13 over the 6 hr period inclusive of that three hr period tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol Baltimore, Lol Eastern Shore yea right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... Why do you keep asking why? It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC. All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close. I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking. An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I just dont see it being that hard of a forecast because I think getting it "correct" is kind of inconsequential.... In the sense that 1" of snow on the grass and not the roads is the same as 6" on the grass and not the roads? If so, that way makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol Baltimore, Lol Eastern Shore yea right. They are under intense persistent banding and in the QPF jackpot. I wouldn't go T-1 there it should be pounding silver dollars for 9 hours straight. Edit: Okay, cut it in half 4-8" jackpot on the Del Marva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why do you keep asking why? It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC. All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close. I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking. An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still remember the day when we had model consensus like this we would be psyched? instead, all we do is doubt them but that's the diff between here and further north....when the models predict snow, they get it and we don't, at least not lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The Euro will tell all if it is on board book it! If not back to square one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... I wouldn't be so blase about it. Though yes, at this time I would certainly play down any chances for heavy accumulation in the metro area which LWX has pretty much done. But as I said, if these indications continue through tomorrow, you can't just ignore that even with climo, time of year, etc. Besides, I was mostly thinking in terms of impact for decision makers (e.g., Fed. govt.). There were a couple of times this year where they had to make a call...one was the closure on the March 6 bust, and I recall another delayed arrival for what turned out to be light drizzle. Both got heavy criticism, though I don't blame the calls given the indications at the time. You don't want to end up with another similar thing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... it depends on really the timing. If its snowing heavily between 2am and 7am, there isnt a reason DCA cant pick up 2 or so inches right on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I wouldn't worry much if I was a forecaster. Odds of a high impact "street event" is tiny. Especially the main roads. I only care about my grass and local sledding hill. My fescue is nervous. I saw it shaking in the breeze earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 just draw a contour around the areas that get dark greened and call it t-8 and then the area around it 0 to maybe 8 if the band shifts. disclaimer: could also be a mod rain snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Ukie looks nice for just 6 hrs of precip ending 12z Monday http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h36&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 what is the "worst" case scenario?....32-33 and a period of +SN and road accumulations down to sea level?...who is going to forecast that? Well, of course nobody is going to forecast that now. But I'm sure it's in the back of people's minds as not out of the realm of possibility. What do you do if all the models (including the Euro) continue showing just the scenario you describe in tomorrows 12Z, 18Z, etc. cycles? Then you kind of have to seriously think of forecasting just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 funny the models have trended back to what they were showing 5 days ago with the ridiculous clown maps which promoted the HECS potential thread. Except for the euro of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 just draw a contour around the areas that get dark greened and call it t-8 and then the area around it 0 to maybe 8 if the band shifts. disclaimer: could also be a mod rain snow mix. Untitled-17.gif I think thru 15 z will be safe for snow after 15z, that's when the wheels start to loosen or come off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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