stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS nearly identical to NAM QPF that digging at 3 was key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? 8 to 12, with lolli's of 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... Wes is probably so happy he is retired right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... for who? what kind of impact will snow falling at 3pm at 35 degrees have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? I'm counting on model error to solve my problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I know this is kinda unscientific in a lot of ways, but it's hard to not see this doing what March 5-6 did (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...?). Where we get a coating overnight, then white rain most of the day Monday. However, it appears from what I've looked at that the air mass should be better with this despite it now being almost 3 weeks later. And the set-up is quite different dynamically, I think. So, I go into this with cautious optimism, like probably everyone else. Actually, if this goes as the models are indicating now (even accounting for the NAM's ridiculously QPF and probably too cold surface), this should easily give DC 1-3", maybe more, I'd have to think. More to the west of course. So in that regard, better than the "No-quester" event. Won't be surprised if at least advisories go up later tomorrow. That would be reasonable. Not sure if any watches would be extended to the I-95 corridor, but probably close. Someone else suggested they can see why LWX is being a bit conservative right now with little or nothing in the DC metro area, and I can sort of understand that too at this point. Though I'd think they should go at least an inch right now, that seems a pretty good bet. An unusual late March event, nobody is going all-out at this point with pushing heavy snow. Plus I'm sure there's a certain amount of having been "snake bitten" on March 5-6 when they put out high snow forecast amounts, and clung to the warnings way too long on the 6th even when it was apparent it was a loss. Now, if the good trends and indications continue tomorrow, I think they'd have to be more aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Your friend JB2 has been talking all day about how this storm will be much different because it will be a north wind not easterly like 3/6. the track and evolution is better for sure. 3/6 might have worked if it came together differently. again odd the euro was among the first to show the enhanced thump right nw of the stack etc. then it pushed it east.. now the american models over and over like that BWI-PHL corridor toward the coast. DC kinda right on the edge.. heartbreak radars and such for us probably. these big 500 lows coming in too far north on a more W to E path seem to favor development too late for me to really cash in but can crush in ne md to phl in winter for sure. if these 'bigger' solutions happen you prob still end up with localized striping with perhaps much lower totals in the surrounding areas that the snow maps think get a general 5-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsdomination09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 for who? what kind of impact will snow falling at 3pm at 35 degrees have? The same impact it had 17 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RAP with front edge snow to Charlottesville by 3pm tomorrow? SW VA getting smashed. Not sure how reliable RAP is tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? It's weather.. anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 for who? what kind of impact will snow falling at 3pm at 35 degrees have? Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's weather.. anything is possible except 12/5/03 going north of 40 according to dt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd be surprised if DC sees more than a car-topper from this- and I don't say this just because of 3/6. Temps are roughly 34-35 and this antecedent airmass is not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? we have more dustings than any other year on record might as well keep padding it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? context..i was answering a post but I totally agree...seeing snow fall is fine with me...I will be at work at 75'....why on 3/25 should I care if it sticks well to the medians and trashcans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? Sad...lost opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 we have more dustings than any other year on record might as well keep padding it At least it feels better happening in mid spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the track and evolution is better for sure. 3/6 might have worked if it came together differently. again odd the euro was among the first to show the enhanced thump right nw of the stack etc. then it pushed it east.. now the american models over and over like that BWI-PHL corridor toward the coast. DC kinda right on the edge.. heartbreak radars and such for us probably. these big 500 lows coming in too far north on a more W to E path seem to favor development too late for me to really cash in but can crush in ne md to phl in winter for sure. if these 'bigger' solutions happen you prob still end up with localized striping with perhaps much lower totals in the surrounding areas that the snow maps think get a general 5-10" of snow. It is still a real longshot to get anything decent around here, but if it does come in at around 10 p.m. tomorrow night that should help with accumulation a lot. The RAP has been good with timing so that should at least bode well for getting snow here earlier than the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 we have more dustings than any other year on record might as well keep padding it yeah...I dont think it really matters what happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sad...lost opportunity Waste of time. Much more productive in March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 but I totally agree...seeing snow fall is fine with me...I will be at work at 75'....why on 3/25 should I care if it sticks well to the medians and trashcans Amen brother. I may walk up to 100' to see the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sad...lost opportunity meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... That's what I was thinking. Would hate to be on the hot seat for this at this time of year. I agree, I'd probably "undercut" things at this point but man, if this still looks real as tomorrow goes on, you'd have to pull the trigger more. You know there's a lot of caution after the closures on March 6, last thing they'd want is a warning for heavy snows and see the same thing happen. Actually, I would not be surprised if the Feds have delayed arrival with optional telework/unscheduled leave for Monday, almost regardless of what goes down. Lots of schools are on spring break next week (MoCo is, at least), so many of them might not even be affected with having to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This is clearly better than 3/6 as modeled. We don't get the raging easterlies and boundary layer is better at 8am, prime snowfall period. I like it for 2" minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year? Wouldn't mind at least seeing some flakes falling on my birthday, that's for sure! Even better if it accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 10 am tomorrow on the HRRR http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2013032323&plot_type=1ref_sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 That's what I was thinking. Would hate to be on the hot seat for this at this time of year. I agree, I'd probably "undercut" things at this point but man, if this still looks real as tomorrow goes on, you'd have to pull the trigger more. You know there's a lot of caution after the closures on March 6, last thing they'd want is a warning for heavy snows and see the same thing happen. Actually, I would not be surprised if the Feds have delayed arrival with optional telework/unscheduled leave for Monday, almost regardless of what goes down. Lots of schools are on spring break next week (MoCo is, at least), so many of them might not even be affected with having to make a decision. why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 yeah...I dont think it really matters what happens.... decent precip for a 3 hr period. that could be 1"/hr snow if it was perfect.. which might give us 1-2 accum. euro will prob have .13 over the 6 hr period inclusive of that three hr period tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Lol Baltimore, Lol Eastern Shore yea right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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