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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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Who cares? Snow will likely be falling on March 25th.. what more do you want this time of the year?

 

we have more dustings than any other year on record might as well keep padding it

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the track and evolution is better for sure. 3/6 might have worked if it came together differently. 

 

again odd the euro was among the first to show the enhanced thump right nw of the stack etc. then it pushed it east.. now the american models over and over like that BWI-PHL corridor toward the coast.  DC kinda right on the edge.. heartbreak radars and such for us probably. 

 

these big 500 lows coming in too far north on a more W to E path seem to favor development too late for me to really cash in but can crush in ne md to phl in winter for sure.

 

if these 'bigger' solutions happen you prob still end up with localized striping with perhaps much lower totals in the surrounding areas that the snow maps think get a general 5-10" of snow.

It is still a real longshot to get anything decent around here, but if it does come in at around 10 p.m. tomorrow night that should help with accumulation a lot. The RAP has been good with timing so that should at least bode well for getting snow here earlier than the GFS shows.

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Um, GFS looks pretty good actually.   I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest.  I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man...

That's what I was thinking.  Would hate to be on the hot seat for this at this time of year.  I agree, I'd probably "undercut" things at this point but man, if this still looks real as tomorrow goes on, you'd have to pull the trigger more.  You know there's a lot of caution after the closures on March 6, last thing they'd want is a warning for heavy snows and see the same thing happen.  Actually, I would not be surprised if the Feds have delayed arrival with optional telework/unscheduled leave for Monday, almost regardless of what goes down.  Lots of schools are on spring break next week (MoCo is, at least), so many of them might not even be affected with having to make a decision.

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yeah...I dont think it really matters what happens....

 

decent precip for a 3 hr period. that could be 1"/hr snow if it was perfect.. which might give us 1-2 accum. euro will prob have .13 over the 6 hr period inclusive of that three hr period tho.

 

post-1615-0-78771300-1364097558_thumb.gi

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why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks...

 

Why do you keep asking why?   It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC.   All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close.  I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking.   An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still

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Lol Baltimore, Lol Eastern Shore yea right.

 

487872_528590813859349_1565813419_n.jpg

 

 

They are under intense persistent banding and in the QPF jackpot.   I wouldn't go T-1 there it should be pounding silver dollars for 9 hours straight.

Edit: Okay, cut it in half 4-8" jackpot on the Del Marva.

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Why do you keep asking why?   It is a tough forecast....it's not black and white...nobody is saying you have to follow models verbatim and forecast a foot of snow for DC.   All I'm saying is, its tough to simply ignore the fact that all the models are saying there will be significant accumulating snowfall very close.  I'm just remarking that it must be a little nerve wrecking.   An inch or less is far more likely to be right in the end, but still

remember the day when we had model consensus like this we would be psyched?

instead, all we do is doubt them

but that's the diff between here and further north....when the models predict snow, they get it and we don't, at least not lately

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why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks...

I wouldn't be so blase about it.  Though yes, at this time I would certainly play down any chances for heavy accumulation in the metro area which LWX has pretty much done.  But as I said, if these indications continue through tomorrow, you can't just ignore that even with climo, time of year, etc.  Besides, I was mostly thinking in terms of impact for decision makers (e.g., Fed. govt.).  There were a couple of times this year where they had to make a call...one was the closure on the March 6 bust, and I recall another delayed arrival for what turned out to be light drizzle.  Both got heavy criticism, though I don't blame the calls given the indications at the time.  You don't want to end up with another similar thing, though.

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why?...this isnt a hard forecast....play it down and say some people in the more favored areas may see a few inches on their grass and decks...

it depends on really the timing. If its snowing heavily between 2am and 7am, there isnt a reason DCA cant pick up 2 or so inches right on the grass

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just draw a contour around the areas that get dark greened and call it t-8 and then the area around it 0 to maybe 8 if the band shifts.

 

disclaimer: could also be a mod rain snow mix.

 

post-1615-0-17722900-1364098584_thumb.gi

 

 

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what is the "worst" case scenario?....32-33 and a period of +SN and road accumulations down to sea level?...who is going to forecast that?

Well, of course nobody is going to forecast that now.  But I'm sure it's in the back of people's minds as not out of the realm of possibility.  What do you do if all the models (including the Euro) continue showing just the scenario you describe in tomorrows 12Z, 18Z, etc. cycles?  Then you kind of have to seriously think of forecasting just that.

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