mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 rgem 984 crushing sne. Nam has 981 low of deleware coast. this is a potent system no it doesn;t crush sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 All of this talk about the sun angle... I bet someone at sea level on the Delmarva gets 7 inches from this easily. What will be the explanation? agreed. the sun angle wasn't why it was a a rain/snow mix last storm "at night". that's why we had accumulation issues imo, not so much because of surface temps. i think we just missed out on the rates we needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS digging at 3 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 18z on Monday at DCA looks a lot better than 18z on 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 rgem is sticking with snow for us http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c32_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c34_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS digging at 3 hrs yes, it has been a long winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 850's are already noticeably colder than 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS looks a bit better thus far, gonna take a better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Temps, supply of low dews to the north, wind trajectories, deepening rates, and H5 track all look better than 3/6 . Only thing worse is the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 rgem hits 977 off mid Atlantic storm. this is not our usual clipper type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM/RGEM shows snow all night tomorrow... GFS is waiting till Monday morning to get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 3/6 stacked and stalled to our south and blasted us with east winds.. something doing so further offshore is going to give better air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Everything looks way better than 3/6. The soundings are way improved over 3/6 at this range just overhead. I have a feeling we could see DCA break the 2" barrier. This is about as perfect a track as you could ask for to break the 2" mark. We keep northerly wind component throughout the storm, which is key this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You guys are all right when it comes to the north winds, we need those badly; if we get them, game at least sort of on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 BWI gets raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 3/6 stacked and stalled to our south and blasted us with east winds.. something doing so further offshore is going to give better air. You say blasting easterlies. But it looks more northeast, and it looks more like a measly 5MPh. This thing has way lesser wind magnitude than 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS is getting there. cue Phineas clouds post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 gfs very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 still, the airmass is pretty similar leading in. today was warmer than the day prior to 3/5 and tomorrow might be a few degrees cooler than 3/5. everyone excited about the dewpoints now must have forgotten how low they were 3/5 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/3/5/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 h5 and h85 in perfect condition for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 lolgfs..maybe this will shut Mitchnick and Phineas up you don't really think that will ever happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS nearly identical to NAM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 still, the airmass is pretty similar leading in. today was warmer than the day prior to 3/5 and tomorrow might be a few degrees cooler than 3/5. everyone excited about the dewpoints now must have forgotten how low they were 3/5 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/3/5/DailyHistory.html Your friend JB2 has been talking all day about how this storm will be much different because it will be a north wind not easterly like 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS nearly identical to NAM QPF that digging at 3 was key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? 8 to 12, with lolli's of 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Um, GFS looks pretty good actually. I'd hate to be a met right now to be honest. I'd still argue climo and take the way under, but man... Wes is probably so happy he is retired right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 How do you guys feel about the fact that it is March 25th during the day and it will be above freezing? I'm counting on model error to solve my problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I know this is kinda unscientific in a lot of ways, but it's hard to not see this doing what March 5-6 did (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...?). Where we get a coating overnight, then white rain most of the day Monday. However, it appears from what I've looked at that the air mass should be better with this despite it now being almost 3 weeks later. And the set-up is quite different dynamically, I think. So, I go into this with cautious optimism, like probably everyone else. Actually, if this goes as the models are indicating now (even accounting for the NAM's ridiculously QPF and probably too cold surface), this should easily give DC 1-3", maybe more, I'd have to think. More to the west of course. So in that regard, better than the "No-quester" event. Won't be surprised if at least advisories go up later tomorrow. That would be reasonable. Not sure if any watches would be extended to the I-95 corridor, but probably close. Someone else suggested they can see why LWX is being a bit conservative right now with little or nothing in the DC metro area, and I can sort of understand that too at this point. Though I'd think they should go at least an inch right now, that seems a pretty good bet. An unusual late March event, nobody is going all-out at this point with pushing heavy snow. Plus I'm sure there's a certain amount of having been "snake bitten" on March 5-6 when they put out high snow forecast amounts, and clung to the warnings way too long on the 6th even when it was apparent it was a loss. Now, if the good trends and indications continue tomorrow, I think they'd have to be more aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Your friend JB2 has been talking all day about how this storm will be much different because it will be a north wind not easterly like 3/6. the track and evolution is better for sure. 3/6 might have worked if it came together differently. again odd the euro was among the first to show the enhanced thump right nw of the stack etc. then it pushed it east.. now the american models over and over like that BWI-PHL corridor toward the coast. DC kinda right on the edge.. heartbreak radars and such for us probably. these big 500 lows coming in too far north on a more W to E path seem to favor development too late for me to really cash in but can crush in ne md to phl in winter for sure. if these 'bigger' solutions happen you prob still end up with localized striping with perhaps much lower totals in the surrounding areas that the snow maps think get a general 5-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.