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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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All of this talk about the sun angle... I bet someone at sea level on the Delmarva gets 7 inches from this easily. What will be the explanation?

 

agreed.  the sun angle wasn't why it was a a rain/snow mix last storm "at night".  that's why we had accumulation issues imo, not so much because of surface temps.  i think we just missed out on the rates we needed.

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Everything looks way better than 3/6.  The soundings are way improved over 3/6 at this range just overhead.  I have a feeling we could see DCA break the 2" barrier.  This is about as perfect a track as you could ask for to break the 2" mark.  We keep northerly wind component throughout the storm, which is key this time of year.

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3/6 stacked and stalled to our south and blasted us with east winds.. something doing so further offshore is going to give better air.

You say blasting easterlies. But it looks more northeast, and it looks more like a measly 5MPh. This thing has way lesser wind magnitude than 3/6.

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still, the airmass is pretty similar leading in. today was warmer than the day prior to 3/5 and tomorrow might be a few degrees cooler than 3/5.  everyone excited about the dewpoints now must have forgotten how low they were 3/5 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/3/5/DailyHistory.html

Your friend JB2 has been talking all day about how this storm will be much different because it will be a north wind not easterly like 3/6.

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I know this is kinda unscientific in a lot of ways, but it's hard to not see this doing what March 5-6 did (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...?).  Where we get a coating overnight, then white rain most of the day Monday.  However, it appears from what I've looked at that the air mass should be better with this despite it now being almost 3 weeks later.  And the set-up is quite different dynamically, I think. 

 

So, I go into this with cautious optimism, like probably everyone else.  Actually, if this goes as the models are indicating now (even accounting for the NAM's ridiculously QPF and probably too cold surface), this should easily give DC 1-3", maybe more, I'd have to think.  More to the west of course.  So in that regard, better than the "No-quester" event.

 

Won't be surprised if at least advisories go up later tomorrow.  That would be reasonable.  Not sure if any watches would be extended to the I-95 corridor, but probably close.  Someone else suggested they can see why LWX is being a bit conservative right now with little or nothing in the DC metro area, and I can sort of understand that too at this point.  Though I'd think they should go at least an inch right now, that seems a pretty good bet.  An unusual late March event, nobody is going all-out at this point with pushing heavy snow.  Plus I'm sure there's a certain amount of having been "snake bitten" on March 5-6 when they put out high snow forecast amounts, and clung to the warnings way too long on the 6th even when it was apparent it was a loss.  Now, if the good trends and indications continue tomorrow, I think they'd have to be more aggressive.

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Your friend JB2 has been talking all day about how this storm will be much different because it will be a north wind not easterly like 3/6.

 

the track and evolution is better for sure. 3/6 might have worked if it came together differently. 

 

again odd the euro was among the first to show the enhanced thump right nw of the stack etc. then it pushed it east.. now the american models over and over like that BWI-PHL corridor toward the coast.  DC kinda right on the edge.. heartbreak radars and such for us probably. 

 

these big 500 lows coming in too far north on a more W to E path seem to favor development too late for me to really cash in but can crush in ne md to phl in winter for sure.

 

if these 'bigger' solutions happen you prob still end up with localized striping with perhaps much lower totals in the surrounding areas that the snow maps think get a general 5-10" of snow.

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