midatlanticweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm curious -- if the NAM is so terrible with winter storms (precip and temp wise), why monitor it with such... uh... enthusiasm? What's its value? Is it good for trends? Because it is fun to watch! It helps with convection which on this run is looking NICE! But precip amounts - forget about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 sounds like a job for jay hatem weather I'm not putting out an accumulation forecast. Just that it would be DC metro area best event of the year. If DCA gets 2 I win lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 1.25 QPF at DCA... looks nice... even half is .6 which is good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 sounds like a job for jay hatem weather i couldn't think of a worse last name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 DC got 11 inches on nov 11 1987. That's seems harder than march 25 no? probably. late season in theory should be better than early season but our season is just usually only 1 week long so it's hard to know. dc itself still only gets maybe 3 hours of really great lift overhead even on these runs. too much emphasis on qpf totals since only parts of it would probably be accum snow under most scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd save historic for like 6"+. By the date it would be a top before that but is 2" really historic? Its by itself re QPF.. but .8 by 12z MON and .7 or so should be all wet snow... that's 3-4 inches by 7/8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Need a total NAM clown! Queue Ian and Weatherbell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 In certain respects, but remember we have a sun angle equivalent to September. it is pretty freaking late at this point.. i almost forget how late by how intensely we've been tracking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Its by itself re QPF.. but .8 by 12z MON and .7 or so should be all wet snow... that's 3-4 inches by 7/8 am Should be 10:1 ratio at night dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 DC got 11 inches on nov 11 1987. That's seems harder than march 25 no? Not to me it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Should be 10:1 ratio at night dude Doubtful... wet snow is never 10:1... prob 6 or 7:1 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Still refuse to believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Its by itself re QPF.. but .8 by 12z MON and .7 or so should be all wet snow... that's 3-4 inches by 7/8 am I doubt it's a 5:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I doubt it's a 5:1 ratio. I doubt all of them, it is still the NAM which the 3-4 makes sense by cutting precip some and accounting for 8:1 ratios. 2-3 is a safe number verbatim, with higher numbers. I don't think I buy .8 by 12z, maybe .5 however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I doubt it's a 5:1 ratio. too bad the nam snow map thinks everything that falls is accumulating snow at 10:1 just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam is 30-32,for me for entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam is 30-32,for me for entire storm after this storm i'll probably stop defending the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 after this storm i'll probably stop defending the nam Matt will pick up the slack for you, don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Interesting that 2 biggest march DC snows ever where march 26-29 time period http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-snow-in-washington-dc-benchmarks-for-snowquester-potentially-similar-seasons/2013/03/04/e72f52b6-848b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 it is pretty freaking late at this point.. i almost forget how late by how intensely we've been tracking this I picked weeds today after going to the natural history museum. Is it supposed to rain tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hi Res NAM map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just for giggles#gohomenamyouredrunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Interesting that 2 biggest march DC snows ever where march 26-29 time period http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-snow-in-washington-dc-benchmarks-for-snowquester-potentially-similar-seasons/2013/03/04/e72f52b6-848b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html I dunno what the 41-42 pattern was but it would be a copy snow wise if we got hecsed somehow. 2.1 going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Cwg has to be nervous about their forecast . They are calling for a trace in dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Cwg has to be nervous about their forecast . They are calling for a trace in dc best would be if everything goes really snowy tomorrow and everyone bites then it busts. i'd probably move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 you do gotta wonder what the forecasts would be if mar 6 didnt happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Cwg has to be nervous about their forecast . They are calling for a trace in dc Even I think thats a little low... best would be if everything goes really snowy tomorrow and everyone bites then it busts. i'd probably move. That's harsh stuff man, really harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 you do gotta wonder what the forecasts would be if mar 6 didnt happen. Probably identical to the ones we had on March 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Forecasting for clients and the public alike, its always better to bust too low on snow than too high. As they always say, easier to raise numbers than drop them; I however say its easiest to get it right the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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