yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 H5 at 36 is perfect too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Verbatim, could be isolated 8-12 inch totals in the Blue Ridge on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 My favorite, insane UVV's over Baltimore NE on that image Ian posted above. Would be absolutely ripping snow, and could overcome the column issues like 18z did over the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm curious -- if the NAM is so terrible with winter storms (precip and temp wise), why monitor it with such... uh... enthusiasm? What's its value? Is it good for trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 that 988mb off the coast of OC is exactly what the sref's started showing on the 15z run and held onto it with the 21z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd be tempted to drink the koolaid if these situations ever worked out for DC. If I was in NE MD or that area I might be more willing but then I'd die in vain. Mostly I want to see the GFS still look good like it did in the 6hr panel ending 12z for now. Of course the Euro is still gonna be dry and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm curious -- if the NAM is so terrible with winter storms (precip and temp wise), why monitor it with such... uh... enthusiasm? What's its value? Is it good for trends? entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam or not a 988 low right of the coast with a 528 ull low has potential to cause an overachievement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 PHL: and NJ start to steal this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Climo. If I had to forecast this, I'd take the model average and half it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Even for FWIW on the NAM as we say, this run is legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 still chugging along at 42 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 My favorite, insane UVV's over Baltimore NE on that image Ian posted above. Would be absolutely ripping snow, and could overcome the column issues like 18z did over the Delmarva. I will not buy into this i will not buy into this I will not.....don't tempt me with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Climo. If I had to forecast this, I'd take the model average and half it. Even if you did that ...it's a historic event for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam or not a 988 low right of the coast with a 528 ull low has potential to cause an overachievement Odd thing is the Euro was sorta first (I think) to show something like that yesterday at 12z then it abandoned it or at least shifted it offshore. Maybe it just takes the American models a day to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why can't this damn coastal develop 12 hours sooner. Congrats PHL. I kinda had a feeling seeing that this morning, and things definitely seem to be trending in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nice stacking on this one. H5 catches the surface fast and pretty far west. Too bad the NAM is jumping around and everyone hates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why can't this damn coastal develop 12 hours sooner. Congrats PHL. I kinda had a feeling seeing that this morning, and things definitely seem to be trending in that direction. Capture action here on the NAM, and I don't really think the trending to PHL is warranted, the coastal taking over earlier has actually been a trend we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why can't this damn coastal develop 12 hours sooner. Congrats PHL. I kinda had a feeling seeing that this morning, and things definitely seem to be trending in that direction. well, NAM has been the farthest north of any of the models so I'm not so sure I'd want to be on the northern edge of this one with that Canadian Maritime monster swirling around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Odd thing is the Euro was sorta first (I think) to show something like that yesterday at 12z then it abandoned it or at least shifted it offshore. Maybe it just takes the American models a day to catch up. Well if it takes the Americans a day to catch up... the storm will be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Even if you did that ...it's a historic event for dcI'd save historic for like 6"+. By the date it would be a top before that but is 2" really historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 PHL: and NJ start to steal this onestop it. It's good enough as is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Some forecaster could really make a name for himself by calling 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I will take this run anytime here in 21236 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 freaking nam is essentially a stall oh to have had this happen a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Some forecaster could really make a name for himself by calling 5-8 sounds like a job for jay hatem weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 well, NAM has been the farthest north of any of the models so I'm not so sure I'd want to be on the northern edge of this one with that Canadian Maritime monster swirling around yea but the euro isn't too different... just drier, whereas with the March 6 storm the Euro was S and right, this time its NE and probably right. I'm starting to get a bad feeling for the NE suburbs. Had a peak on the FSU Banding site for 18z, and what awesome frontogenesis. I am so jealous right now if it plays out this way (which we all know it won't... many more adjustments to come). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_ptot.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'd save historic for like 6"+. By the date it would be a top before that but is 2" really historic? DC got 11 inches on nov 11 1987. That's seems harder than march 25 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 DC got 11 inches on nov 11 1987. That's seems harder than march 25 no? In certain respects, but remember we have a sun angle equivalent to September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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