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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs


stormtracker

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

845 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

VAZ503-504-WVZ501-505-506-240845-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0006.130324T1800Z-130325T2200Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0008.130324T1800Z-130325T2200Z/

WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT-WESTERN PENDLETON-

EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...BAYARD...

MOUNT STORM...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN

845 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.

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For the immediate DC area, yeah.  Looks like they aren't keen on anything much even out towards I-81 and into WVA.  

 

yeah maybe a little low in some spots but maybe not.. still no major reason not to lean conservative. i think the upside bust potential is rather low overall. the nam type solution where you get crazy vertical velocities over a pretty small area which might tip the scale is one of the main worries there i guess tho it seems difficult to do right. if say the 18z gfs was right and the majority of the .25"+ came in like 3 hours you could end up with some busts in spots... all would be rate and banding related and high side of <1" is probably like 1.5-2" that doesn't really stick on roads, at least beltway and surrounds. 

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Minute changes on the NAM with regards to the slightest bit more digging and a wee bit weather confluence could nudge the heaviest QPF axis into BWI and company this run later on. Still too early to make any definite calls. 

I was just going to say the same thing

but I say it every storm  :weenie:

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