PhineasC Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow. 2" liquid equivalent for the Delmarva coast on the 18z NAM. Just sick. That is pretty standard for the NAM. We'll verify around .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That is pretty standard for the NAM. We'll verify around .25". The last two extreme snow events in Connecticut verified very close to the NAM, despite the fact that it was much higher than other guidance. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hmmmm looks about right.. 40% of course would still be not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 looks about right.. 40% of course would still be not likely Yes, but that is a big move east from this morning... 10% line was just west of DCA on the morning map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If you forget the date... and the fact that its the NAM... it is borderline pornographic for hours 45 and 48 from DCA to PHL. it's really only the tight little uvv ball that would probably see anything truly exciting in that scenario.. it sorta starts to develop DC/Balt east but quick hit.. it's that small coastal region east of the bay up to s nj that gets the clobbering required per the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LOLtastic for 460 from Blacksburg to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hi res Nam gets DC in on the LOLparty too... 12+ over DC proper. A little north of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro ensemble mean, around .69 for DCA, wetter than the operational. 2 of the individual members may be skewing the mean slightly, with QPF totals of 1.5 and 2+ respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro ensemble mean, around .69 for DCA, wetter than the operational. 2 of the individual members may be skewing the mean slightly, with QPF totals of 1.5 and 2+ respectively. Surface still same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So much space wasted on a model that is not going to verify. Take the 1-3 slushfest and enjoy the "snowday". BTW, hit 52 here. Right on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Another government shutdown?? Edit: LMFAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Surface still same? Surface could actually be a bit cooler this run. Looking into it a bit more, it is a bit chillier. Would match up better with what you would get taking the 1C off soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I know that. That wasn't my point. My point was that in the realm of what will probably happen with this storm, the human generated input even from 3am looks just fine for those probabilities. Anybody super close to DC who is expecting or even considering 4+ inches is off their rocker IMO. Elevation much better shot...and that map shows that. It was an example And I agree 100% with you. Those computer maps are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Surface could actually be a bit cooler this run. Looking into it a bit more, it is a bit chillier. Cooler than 1C along I-95 corridor? Appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Cooler than 1C along I-95 corridor? Appreciate it Looks like it actually at hr 60 (which is 12z MON) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LWX says no snow for most of us. At least that is how I would describe it. Elevation dependent ya da ya da ya da. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The gfs is about to start cranking at hour 30. (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LWX says no snow for most of us. At least that is how I would describe it. Elevation dependent ya da ya da ya da. Probably the best route to go unfortunately Plus they are probably playing it super cautious from last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 If I'm being honest, this actually isn't that bad a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The gfs is about to start cranking at hour 30. (I think). Nvmd. The weenie in me was acting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hmm, GFS now has 2 contoured, stronger H5 low vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nvmd. The weenie in me was acting up. Let the run play out it's alright. h5 energy is nice in that it's amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 looks mostly like the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 .8 for DCA through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 looks mostly like the last run yup..almost exact match sfc wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If I'm being honest, this actually is that bad a call except around here at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's wet To clarify, does this mean wet as in 1" QPF or wet as in rainy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 snow map: 8-12 area mostly west but a bonus strip up 95 for DC and Balt goooo us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If I'm being honest, this actually is that bad a call Is or isn't? I think if you subtract 1" from each zone, it's actually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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