How close is next week's system to being a monster?

[Typhoon Tip]

To give you an idea of just how close this event for next week is to being a monster, we compare to history ... good educational opportunity.

 

Firstly, thanks to Vortexx95's short but powerful thread, "March AO Anomalies", which tuned me onto this.   His thread covers other dramatic AO anomalous Marches of the past, one of which was 1984. 

 

I was looking over the charts over at the NCEP Library for the days leading up to the juggernaut Nor'easter that march, and found a remarkable similarity to how many operational models are handling the lead, now.

 

Here is the 12z Oper Euro for 48 hours from now: 

 

 

 

Here is the 12z initialization from March 28th, 1984:

 

 

 

 

There are eerily similar governing aspects between the two.  Namely, both feature a strong SPV gyre situated over the lower Maritimes, parked under an impressive west-based -NAO.    

 

I have noticed that as the models are struggling to bring this system next week farther on up the coast, in tandem, ...the SPV is every so slightly weaker whenever a more northerly solution comes out.   Now, look what happened on the 29th of March, 1984!!

 

 

Notice how the SPV has weakened and moved NE of it's position during the preceding day?   Now look at the Euro run for 72 hours out (off 12z this morning):

 

 

The difference there is clear.   The version from yesteryear showed a weakening and movement of the vortex, where currently the models are refusing to move and/or weaken that feature.  This creates a problem in wave spacing for the system approaching the MA, such that it begins to damp and be forced S (deconstructive wave interference), as opposed to 1984, where it encountered more of a constructive wave interference and therefore, strengthened.  

 

The key is handling the vortex over the lower Maritimes.   It may be telling that the Euro Ensemble means have tended to be N of the operational, signifying that it is a "dampy" outlier.  These SPV are notoriously, poorly handled by modeling.  It is still not impossible for this system next week to evolve into something more, particularly should/if the models prove too conserved with its domination on the flow. 

 

As is ... 72 hour panel above, that is a trend again ...ever slightly N, slightly more intense with the mid level centers.  All we really need for this to become a very important event (and it probably already is for a narrow stripe of the MA), is for that vortex to show a little more willingness to give up proxy on the overall circulation, because if that were to happen this would become an interesting analog.   

 

By the way ...also during a whopper negative AO March that year.   

[joey2002]

Very interesting... nice write-up Tip. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

March 29, 1984:

 

A savage "nor'Easter" battered New England. The central pressure of the low dropped to 963 millibars over the Atlantic east of New Jersey. Winds gusted to 108 mph at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Massachusetts and to 97 mph at Martha's Vineyard. 8 to 16 inches of heavy wet snow fell in interior southern New England. Numerous thunderstorms also accompanied this spring blizzard. One thunderstorm produced a microburst at Southborough, Massachusetts which flattened about 5 acres of red pines -- a most unusual occurrence for a nor'easter.

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7074&st=300

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I remember that vividly.  Wasn't forecast well.  Changed over to snow and dumped all the way down Rte 24. 

 

What we need is an extension back into New England like we had a few weeks back.  You can see in the 84 maps how there was a weakness extending back which made some room.  There's hints of that again this time.  Remember with the last blizzard it was the GFS that broke off a spoke first, and then lost it entirely.  But it was one of the first big pieces to breaking down the dominant flow inside of 96 hours last time.

 

Let's see.  Goes to show it's not far off.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Today's models runs have at least made me interested in some weekend model watching. I'm on board for a storm. Very wintery feel to the air right now. I saw JB throwing around April 1982 comparisons today.

I like Tips 1984 pattern analog.

[TheBudMan]

Will be at Blue Hill winter camping with Cub Scouts tomorrow (anyone else ?)  Would be great to finish the day off reading about a big north trend !!! 

 

1984 was a GREAT storm.  Remember walking down the street in Belmont during thundersnow and had a strike drop a massive limb and wires into the road 200 yards in front of me ! 

[free_man]

1984 was a GREAT storm.  Remember walking down the street in Belmont during thundersnow and had a strike drop a massive limb and wires into the road 200 yards in front of me ! 

That's nuts, lol.

[Hailstoned]

I was in a gas station in Reading that afternoon, and the wind was so strong, as I exited, it wrenched the heavy door out of my hands, bending it on its hinges. The real heavy snow came late afternoon wet, hard and windblown as I traveled south on 128. It was one of those evenings that as I headed home on the tree lined roads, it was a must to keep a close eye on the violently gyrating limbs above, with the constant fear that one might come down and hit you. Close to 12" of snow-- it in some ways  reminded of the blizzard of 78.

As I recall, a predominantly easterly gale and fortuitous tide cycles with the height of the storm resulted in minimal storm surge. But white pines took one of their worst beatings ever, especially SW of Boston, where the combination of storm force winds and the heavy wet snow dolled out a conifer catastrophe.

[It's Always Sunny]

Will be at Blue Hill winter camping with Cub Scouts tomorrow (anyone else ?)  Would be great to finish the day off reading about a big north trend !!! 

 

1984 was a GREAT storm.  Remember walking down the street in Belmont during thundersnow and had a strike drop a massive limb and wires into the road 200 yards in front of me ! 

Go visit the weather observatory there with the troops!