March 24th-25th Winter Storm Snowfall Contest

[Powerball]

The winner gets nothing.

 

DEADLINE IS 3/24/13 AT MIDNIGHT

 

DTW:

ORD:

MKE:

MSN:

DVN:

CLE:

CMH:

CVG:

IND:

FWA:

SBN:

GRR:

BTL:

PTK:

MBS:

LAF:

EVV:

STL:

MCI:

SDF:

PITT:

BUF:

TOL:

PIA:

RFD:

SGF:

Mt. Geos:

Mt. Orion:

YYZ:

[dmc76]

Nice spread of locations

 

whens the deadline?

[cyclone77]

DTW:  0.0"

ORD:  0.6"

MKE:  T

MSN:  0.3"

DVN:  1.5"

CLE:  3.5"

CMH:  8.2"

CVG:  3.9"

IND:  8.6"

FWA:  3.8"

SBN:  1.2"

GRR:  0.0"

BTL:  0.0"

PTK:  0.0"

MBS:  0.0"

LAF:  11.5"

EVV:  2.2"

STL:  5.6"

MCI:  4.9"

SDF:  1.6"

PITT: 6.3"

BUF:  2.0"

TOL:  3.4"

PIA:  4.2"

RFD:  0.7"

SGF:  2.1"

Mt. Geos:  0.5"

Mt. Orion: 0.0"

YYZ:  T

[OHweather]

DTW: 0.5

ORD: 0.5"

MKE: Trace

MSN: 0

DVN: 2.5"

CLE: 3.5"

CMH: 7.0"

CVG: 2.5"

IND: 7.2"

FWA: 3.7"

SBN: 0.9"

GRR: 0.1"

BTL: 0.2"

PTK: 0.4"

MBS: 0

LAF: 6.1"

EVV: Trace

STL: 4.9"

MCI: 3.2"

SDF: 8.0"

PITT: 6.0"

BUF: 0

TOL: 1.2"

PIA: 6.9"

RFD: 0.4"

SGF: 0.1"

Mt. Geos: 0.7"

Mt. Orion: 0.1"

YYZ: Trace

[michsnowfreak]

DTW: 0

PTK: 0.7"

Id like to see that happen (PTK is north of DTW)

[dmc76]

Id like to see that happen (PTK is north of DTW)

 

It always happens

 

 

DTW: 1.4"

ORD: 1.5"

MKE: 0.9"

MSN: 1.7"

DVN: 3.7"

CLE: 4.8"

CMH: 5.8"

CVG: 3.6"

IND: 8.4"

FWA: 7.5"

SBN: 3.3"

GRR: 0.3"

BTL: 1.6"

PTK: 1.0"

MBS: 0.0"

LAF: 7.2"

EVV: 2.8"

STL: 3.6"

MCI: 4.5"

SDF: 4.4"

PITT: 6.5"

BUF: 1.0"

TOL: 2.7"

PIA: 6.0"

RFD: 2.2"

SGF: 0.4"

Mt. Geos: 1.8"

Mt. Orion: 1.0"

YYZ: 0.3"

[hm8]

spreadsheet on this is gonna be a b**ch

[cyclone77]

Need a deadline or this won't really be fair lol.

[Roger Smith]

Forget the deadline, I need an atlas and an intern.

[OHweather]

Id like to see that happen (PTK is north of DTW)

Lol I knew they were close but didn't know where PTK is exactly. May need to enter a couple of revised guesses

[Roger Smith]

DTW: ... 0.1

ORD: ... 0.7

MKE: ... 0.1

MSN: ... 0.2

DVN: ... 3.5

CLE: ... 2.0

CMH: ... 5.0

CVG: ... 8.5

IND: ... 9.9

FWA: ... 2.5

SBN: ... 2.5

GRR: ... 0.1

BTL: ... 0.2

PTK: ... 0.0

MBS: ... 0.0

LAF: ... 7.7

EVV: ... 6.5

STL: ... 5.5

MCI: ... 2.5

SDF: ... 7.5

PITT: ... 6.0

BUF: ... 2.5

TOL: ... 0.1

PIA: ... 5.0

RFD: ... 1.0

SGF: ... 2.0 (if contest includes all of 24th)

Mt. Geos: ... 0.1

Mt. Orion: ... 0.0

YYZ: ... 0.1 or 0.3 cm

 

Edit at 2230z Saturday ...

 

... contest deadline needs an edit too, it says midnight 24th, should be midnight 23rd no?

[Geos]

DTW: T

ORD: 3.2"

MKE: T

MSN: T

DVN: 4.6"

CLE: 4.8"

CMH: 6.6"

CVG: 4.3"

IND: 7.2"

FWA: 5.5"

SBN: 5.0"

GRR: 0.0"

BTL: 1.0"

PTK: T

MBS: 0.0"

LAF: 8.7"

EVV: 3.9"

STL: 8.2"

MCI: 7.8"

SDF: 4.0"

PITT: 4.6"

BUF: 2.2"

TOL: 2.0"

PIA: 6.0"

RFD: 0.7"

SGF: 1.8"

Mt. Geos: 0.8"

Mt. Orion: 0.0"

YYZ: 1.2"

[dmc76]

DTW: ... 2.5

ORD: ... 2.3

MKE: ... 1.0

MSN: ... 1.0

DVN: ... 3.5

CLE: ... 4.0

CMH: ... 5.0

CVG: ... 7.5

IND: ... 8.2

FWA: ... 3.5

SBN: ... 3.5

GRR: ... 1.7

BTL: ... 1.7

PTK: ... 0.9

MBS: ... 0.2

LAF: ... 7.0

EVV: ... 4.0

STL: ... 3.0

MCI: ... 1.5

SDF: ... 6.5

PITT: ... 10.0

BUF: ... 2.5

TOL: ... 2.0

PIA: ... 6.0

RFD: ... 3.0

SGF: ... 1.3

Mt. Geos: ... 1.5

Mt. Orion: ... 1.5

YYZ: ... 2.0 or 5 cm

Where is Mt Orion? I may want to change that one.

Lake Orion, Mi about 40-45 miles directly north of DTW and its about 500-600 feet higher.

[Stebo]

First I'd like to note there is way too many cities on this list that either have no posters at or will not get any snow anyways

 

DTW: 0.2"

ORD: 0.7"

MKE: 0.0"

MSN: 0.0"

DVN: 3.2"

CLE: 4.3"

CMH: 5.7"

CVG: 2.2"

IND: 6.7"

FWA: 5.2"

SBN: 4.4"

GRR: 0.0"

BTL: 0.2"

PTK: 0.0

MBS: 0.0"

LAF: 6.7"

EVV: 0.2"

STL: 6.7"

MCI: 6.8"

SDF: 1.3"

PITT: 3.8"

BUF: 1.5"

TOL: 4.5"

PIA: 7.2"

RFD: 0.3"

SGF: 1.2"

Mt. Geos: 0.2"

Mt. Orion: 0.0"

YYZ: 0.0"

 

Next time lets have like 5-10 cities or not have Powerball do this...

[Powerball]

First I'd like to note there is way too many cities on this list that either have no posters at or will not get any snow anyways...Next time lets have like 5-10 cities or not have Powerball do this...

 

No one forced you to post in or read this thread.

[Stebo]

No one forced you to post in or read this thread.

No one chose you to create this thread when we have others who have done it before and done it well before.

[Hoosier]

No one chose you to create this thread when we have others who have done it before and done it well before.

He's kinda right though. Nobody forced you to participate in the contest. It's all in fun.

[Stebo]

He's kinda right though. Nobody forced you to participate in the contest. It's all in fun.

 

 

Of course it is in fun, but man lets trim it down a touch, does anyone think places like MBS are going to get a flake? Or any of these other places to the far South, like hm8 said it is going to be a nightmare collecting all of this up when it didn't have to be.

[Chargers09]

   

[Chicago Storm]

lol stebo.

[Roger Smith]

This contest has a problem with the deadline, I think ... should it not say midnight Sat 23rd? otherwise is the storm not half over by the deadline? BTW, I edited my earlier forecasts for a more southerly track. Max snowfall about 10-12 in across south central IL and IN with gradual reduction to 6-8 in southern OH and ne KY, 4-6 in WV, s PA, w MD.

[cyclone77]

No edit from me.  I'm gonna ride with what I got.  Thinking my KC and STL totals are too low though.  Especially STL.

[Roger Smith]

I had a quick look through the CF6 reports for 24th and 25th and found these totals, some others I did not find as noted:

 

DTW: 0.4

ORD: 0.1

MKE: Tr

MSN: 3.4

DVN: 2.1

CLE: 3.6

CMH: 4.1

CVG:3.0

IND: 9.1

FWA: 5.6

SBN: Tr

GRR: not much

BTL: either Tr or not much (only liquid equivalent given)

PTK: looks like zero

MBS: looks like zero

LAF: probably reported somewhere in another thread, has to be 8-11 inches from reports, not in CF6

EVV: looks like either trace or 0.1

STL: 12.8

MCI: 3.9 (think 5.3 storm total started before contest deadline)

SDF: 0.4

PITT: Assuming this is PIT, 4.9

BUF: appears to be wide right (zero)

TOL: 1.3

PIA: 7.6

RFD: 2.0

SGF: 1.4 on 24th

Mt. Geos: never heard, has to be well into the 0.2-0.3 range

Mt. Orion: no clue

YYZ: nothing on 24th, 25th not entered yet (looked sunny on TV news)

 

Somehow with all those stations we missed the opportunity to underforecast SPI by 8-10 inches.

 

I hope this helps the organizer, that's most of the data anyway.

[michsnowfreak]

I had a quick look through the CF6 reports for 24th and 25th and found these totals, some others I did not find as noted:

 

DTW: 0.4

ORD: 0.1

MKE: T

MSN: 3.4

DVN: 2.1

CLE: 3.6

CMH: 4.1

CVG:3.0

IND: 9.1

FWA: 5.6

SBN: T

GRR: T

BTL: T

PTK: 0

MBS: 0

LAF: 11.0

EVV: T

STL: 12.8

MCI: 5.4

SDF: 0.4

PITT: 4.9

BUF: 0

TOL: 1.3

PIA: 7.6

RFD: 2.0

SGF: 1.4 

Mt. Geos: T

Mt. Orion: 0

YYZ: 0

 

Somehow with all those stations we missed the opportunity to underforecast SPI by 8-10 inches.

 

I hope this helps the organizer, that's most of the data anyway.

[Geos]

I had a quick look through the CF6 reports for 24th and 25th and found these totals, some others I did not find as noted:

 

DTW: 0.4

ORD: 0.1

MKE: Tr

MSN: 3.4

DVN: 2.1

CLE: 3.6

CMH: 4.1

CVG:3.0

IND: 9.1

FWA: 5.6

SBN: Tr

GRR: not much

BTL: either Tr or not much (only liquid equivalent given)

PTK: looks like zero

MBS: looks like zero

LAF: probably reported somewhere in another thread, has to be 8-11 inches from reports, not in CF6

EVV: looks like either trace or 0.1

STL: 12.8

MCI: 3.9 (think 5.3 storm total started before contest deadline)

SDF: 0.4

PITT: Assuming this is PIT, 4.9

BUF: appears to be wide right (zero)

TOL: 1.3

PIA: 7.6

RFD: 2.0

SGF: 1.4 on 24th

Mt. Geos: never heard, has to be well into the 0.2-0.3 range Trace

Mt. Orion: no clue

YYZ: nothing on 24th, 25th not entered yet (looked sunny on TV news)

 

Somehow with all those stations we missed the opportunity to underforecast SPI by 8-10 inches.

 

I hope this helps the organizer, that's most of the data anyway.

 

Fixed

[Roger Smith]

I am going with my total for MCI (24th, 3.9") since the contest stated 24th-25th. Otherwise, using the supplied information and my original list of validations, just for fun here are the winners for each station. I won't bother to validate the total errors or sum of squares with so few entrants (six).

 

Actuals followed by closest forecast

 

DTW: 0.4 (OH wx 0.5)

ORD: 0.1 (OH wx 0.5)

MKE: Tr (cyclone77, Geos Tr)

MSN: 3.4 (dmc76, 1.9)

DVN: 2.1 (OH wx 2.5)

CLE: 3.6 (cyc77 and OHwx 3.5)

CMH: 4.1 (RS 5.0)

CVG:3.0 (OHwx 2.5)

IND: 9.1 (OHwx 8.6)

FWA: 5.6 (Geos 5.5)

SBN: Tr (OHwx 0.9)

GRR: Tr (cyc77, Geos, Stebo 0.0)

BTL: Tr (cyc77 0.0)

PTK: 0 (cyc77, RS, Stebo 0.0)

MBS: 0 (all six said 0.0)

LAF: 11.0 (cyc77 11.5)

EVV: Tr  (OHwx Tr)

STL: 12.8 (Geos 8.2)

MCI: 3.9 (dmc76 at 4.5 closest to this) (5.4 storm total incl 23rd -- cyc77 at 4.9 closest to this)

SDF: 0.4 (Stebo 1.3)

PITT: 4.9 (Geos 4.6)

BUF: 0 (OHwx 0.0)

TOL: 1.3 (OHwx 1.2)

PIA: 7.6 (OHwx 6.9)

RFD: 2.0 (dmc76 2.2)

SGF: 1.4 (Stebo 1.2)

Mt. Geos: Tr (RS 0.1)

Mt. Orion: 0 (cyc 77, RS, Geos, Stebo 0.0)

YYZ: 0 (Stebo 0.0)

 

Giving one point for each best forecast, and ignoring MBS, the points would be:

 

OHwx ... 11

cyc77 .... 7

Geos ..... 6

Stebo .... 6

dmc76 ... 3

RS ........  3

 

This would change to 8 for cyc77 and 2 for dmc76 using storm total for SGF.

 

Dividing points where ties exist, it would be:

 

OHwx ... 10.5

Geos ... 4.08

cyc 77 ... 3.92 (4.92)

Stebo ... 3.92

dmc ... 3.0 (2.0)

RS ... 1.59

 

(total in brackets if pre-deadline MCI snow counted)

 

Any way we look at this, OHwx is the clear winner and it's fairly close among Geos, cyclone77 and Stebo for second.

 

As a group, I think we did fairly well across the zone except that EVV-SDF and SBN were overpredicted, STL and MSN were underpredicted. Otherwise, at least one person came pretty close to nailing a forecast for the many locations.

 

I wonder what we might have said for SPI. I think I might have gone 10 or 11 inches since I thought that was going to be the heavy axis, but 18? I don't think so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

Nice final analysis RS!

[OHweather]

Thanks for breaking that down Roger! No complaints on this end

[WestMichigan]

Good job OHweather

[Roger Smith]

No probs, I always like to see how badly I did.