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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 5


Harry

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OMFG...  what the *&(*&

 

lol

 

In any case, the Euro has been fairly consistent in dropping a pretty powerful upper trough into the West at the beginning of next week, shifting eastward towards the Plains by mid-week. A system like this would probably have a chance of generating some severe weather in this sub-forum's jurisdiction, especially with the amount of instability building up on the Wundermap's representation (now out to 180 again). There appears to be a decent consensus among the ensembles as well.

 

The GFS appears to have caught on to this general idea with latest runs too.

 

Potent baroclinic zone setting up at 168 on the 00z Euro ensembles.

 

vRG8b8X.gif

 

Latest D4-8 mentions it.

 

MORE PROMINENT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED TOWARDS   THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE   DEVELOPMENT OF A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.   THIS WOULD SETUP RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE CNTRL   CONUS...S OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MIDWEST TO   THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON D1-2 IS NOT EXPECTED   TO BE AS DETRIMENTAL TO DRYING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AS THE MOST   RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD...WHICH POTENTIALLY WILL YIELD A MORE   STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN   THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WITH IMMENSE SPREAD IN BOTH   AMPLITUDE AND TIMING...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY EFFECT DOWNSTREAM   CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERING ANY   HIGHLIGHT FOR A SPECIFIC AREA/DAY WITH 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE   PROBABILITIES IS PREMATURE ATTM.
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So cold and wet is the name of the game...

 

So the theory i have is at some point...we'll maybe get a week of "spring""...and then it will be summer..

 

What is spring?  Given the nature of these strong spring storms,  the typical "spring" weather is often 40s and rain, with some 70s/80s and sun, as well as 80s and stormy mixed in.  This is not nearly as anomalous as last March for instance.

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180 hour ECMWF has a monster baroclinic zone forming over the plains yet again.  Except the torch is even torchier than this latest.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_180hr.gif

So another shot at 58F and clouds?  Yeah! 

 

Spring?  Spring is sun/rain and 50Fs and 60Fs in my book...  Not 34F and endless days of clouds and cold rain/snow/sleet...

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So another shot at 58F and clouds?  Yeah! 

 

Spring?  Spring is sun/rain and 50Fs and 60Fs in my book...  Not 34F and endless days of clouds and cold rain/snow/sleet...

 

You do seem to be caught in the no man's land between winter and spring up there.

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I thought this place was full of cold mongers and snow lovers? What's with all the complaining?

Sent from my SCH-I535 2

 

I think that ends for most as we begin April. Or maybe mid March. Completely understandable.

 

I'm one of the last holdouts I believe. But I cherish the cool now because I know what arrives May through September in the LAF. ;):(

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Its fine in Dec/Jan/Feb...but its planting season...its blooming season..its time for birds and bees and all that #$#$... :) I want to get on my bike and not have a numb face/hands...

Exactly.....

B-rent, it's called enjoying the 4 seasons.

I know, I got chastised at the beginning of March wishing for spring. Just throwing a little of it back.

I also got my first sunburn of the year over the last two days. Damn jeep.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

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I know, I got chastised at the beginning of March wishing for spring. Just throwing a little of it back.I also got my first sunburn of the year over the last two days. Damn jeep.

Sent from my SCH-I535  2

twist the knife! :D

I had to edit that in. :)

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

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spring and fall are to long anyways. paying back for last March with some high interest this spring.

Fall can drag but Spring is never too long for me.  I love 60's and low 70's, fresh air and a breeze. That never seems to last long enough.  N Mich Spring is kinda "brutal" as Alek  has so eloquently stated.

 

Not only high interest but a big fat balloon payment to boot!

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