Stebo Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The 12z ECMWF showed 6-12"+ from ORD to DTW from two systems in the Sun-Thur timeframe. That is quite surprising considering the thermodynamic profiles are extremely marginal based upon the maps, If anything I would think this is more of an ice setup with the high to the NE funneling down cold air from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I just want a warm day..this is getting silly...stuck inside because its too cold to go out in April sucks...furnace still running all the time... not cheap either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Figures, today I pulled the salter and steamed the underside of the truck today to remove all of the oil spray... Sorry everyone for if it does snow its all my fault. In all honesty how long has it been since we have experienced such a persistant cold in late to early spring??? Dam even the few awoken frogs went back to bed this week. Now let it dump snow and bring in spring !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I just want a warm day..this is getting silly...stuck inside because its too cold to go out in April sucks...furnace still running all the time... not cheap either. +1 This pattern is pointless now. Ready for 60s and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 +1 This pattern is pointless now. Ready for 60s and thunderstorms. Yep, tried to go out and hit a bucket of balls the other day. Nice enough with no wind, but add the wind and it was miserable... Coupled with the fact I was slicing everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Since it has been brought up...regarding April snow sticking...heres an analysis of the 4 most notable April snowfalls since I have been keeping track imby in the mid-1990s. I could go over every April snowfall in the history books and guess what the situation was, but in the end the moral of the story is snowfall doesnt stick as easily as in winter, but its not as hard as you think, especially with the right conditions. Snowstorms like May 9, 1923 when 6-12" fell in SE MI during the DAYLIGHT hours, or May 21-22, 1883 when 5" fell during the night...that is the TRUE definition of unprecedented. April is more like "the conditions need to be right". April 7, 2003: 5.0" of snow on 0.53" liquid. High/Low 33/26. It was a full-fledged winterlike snowstorm. Heavy snow fell during the morning, from about 8am to noon, and accumulated 5". Freezing drizzle then fell literally all day and night, so the some of that 0.53" qpf was the zr. The ground was completely snowcovered for 3 days. Pic taken around noon April 7, 2003. The area near the rock/pole is grass, the rest is cement. April 22-25, 2005: Rain began falling at 4pm April 22nd and precipitation simply did not stop until the last flake of snow fell around 2am April 25th. So rare to have such a LONG storm, but thats what this was. Total 58-hour precip was 1.46". It was rain til the early morning of April 23rd, then a mix of rain and snow most of the day until turning to snow the evening of April 23rd. It snowed all night but by sunrise April 24th only about an inch was on the ground. Snowfall then turned very heavy and the majority of the storms accumulation (probably 4+ inches of it) came from about 10am - 2pm the 24th. Just incredible. The peak depth I got was 4.5" on the grass and 5.5" on elevated objects, and a storm total snowfall of 6.7". The high/low on the 24th was 36/31, but only during the heavy snow did temps hover around freezing. The rest of the event was largely 33-35F. Certainly a sloppy snow that didnt last long....but simply incredible that most accumulation occurred during the DAYLIGHT hours a week before May. Did I mention there was a record high of 83F on April 19th? Pic taken around 10am April 24, 2005 as the snow was starting to pick up Pic taken around 7pm April 24, 2005...yes...I missed the brunt of the storm at work UGH April 5-6, 2009: Briefly began as rain late on the 5th, but after a negligible amount quickly turned to snow. Heavy at times overnight. Storm total precip was 1.02" but just 4.6" snow, so even after accounting for the rain it was like a 5-1 ratio snow. The high/low on the 6th was 37/32. Pic taken late morning April 6, 2009 April 18, 2011: Light snow fell during the morning, accumulating on all but paved surfaces. Total precip 0.17", snow 1.3" High/low 41/32. Pick taken mid-morning April 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Its going to be interesting to see what the models do with this pattern change. Going to be some wild shifts I think. Compare the 0z to 6z GFS and that is evident. Meanwhile the EURO looks brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 the Euro looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 6z GFS has 80F on April 16th... lock it in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 the Euro looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 EURO bumps the NAO at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 DTX says maxes on any given day midweek could be 40F or 70F. What a hell of a week to forecast...it could be 15-20F below normal or 10-15F above normal . Right now for the forecast they are just going a muddled middle of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Since it has been brought up...regarding April snow sticking...heres an analysis of the 4 most notable April snowfalls since I have been keeping track imby in the mid-1990s. I could go over every April snowfall in the history books and guess what the situation was, but in the end the moral of the story is snowfall doesnt stick as easily as in winter, but its not as hard as you think, especially with the right conditions. Snowstorms like May 9, 1923 when 6-12" fell in SE MI during the DAYLIGHT hours, or May 21-22, 1883 when 5" fell during the night...that is the TRUE definition of unprecedented. April is more like "the conditions need to be right". Can you imagine if something like that occured today? People would be freaking out and coming up with all kinds of strange theories as to why it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 What is up with the models. Still all over the place regarding warmup possibilities. 0z GFS made me happy but Euro still shows suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so. EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt Looks like SW for April 24 +-1 day with next major cold snap and best chance at a svr wx set up. I would say maybe even snow again in the northern tier of the US. Another SW arriving in eastern US for apr 27-30 window with brief cool down behind it. Then a sw for May 1-3 time frame with slight cool down for May 2-4 time frame behind sw depending on it's arrival. After that a decent torch will develop for May 4-7 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Warm up=fail? All models show nothing but below normal temps. I wonder if we will leaf out this month... Anyone who lives in North Dakota needs their heads examined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Warm up=fail? All models show nothing but below normal temps. I wonder if we will leaf out this month... Anyone who lives in North Dakota needs their heads examined. Man u have got to stop taking every single model run verbatim. There is no such fail rather its a chilly start to spring which are fairly normal. In 2 -3 months you will be complaining about the heat so enjoy your chilly temps and soft spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Man u have got to stop taking every single model run verbatim. There is no such fail rather its a chilly start to spring which are fairly normal. In 2 -3 months you will be complaining about the heat so enjoy your chilly temps and soft spring weather. If there's absolutely nothing interesting to look forward to what is there to enjoy about a chilly spring? Perpetual grey skies and cold rains. All good thunder potential suppressed hundreds of miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Don't see much spring chill. Amazing how people think 96hr+ GFS is worth repeating everyday. I'm going to be in the 40's the entire week next week. That's most definitely "spring chill" It's not just the GFS, Euro shows the "Chill" too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Warm up=fail? All models show nothing but below normal temps. I wonder if we will leaf out this month... Anyone who lives in North Dakota needs their heads examined. If you're making a reference to my forecast why don't you look at a weather map???? There is a warm front over IL and IN with temps in the 60's and 70's across northern Illinois and Indiana this afternoon after being in the 50's and 60's yesterday. And 15-20 degrees warmer than they were back on Wed. when they were in the upper 40's-low 50's range. And even if the GFS has backed off it is still forecasting mid 60s-70's for much of the Midwest which is again actually about 20-25 degrees warmer than it was back on the the 3rd and still above normal temps by 5-10 degrees for most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 I'm going to be in the 40's the entire week next week. That's most definitely "spring chill" It's not just the GFS, Euro shows the "Chill" too.. Yea, the Euro is worse. For anyone north of I-80 the warmup looks like a legitimate fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Warm up=fail? All models show nothing but below normal temps. I wonder if we will leaf out this month... Anyone who lives in North Dakota needs their heads examined. There is no need for this sensationalism with every run of the models, seriously this is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I just noticed that the Euro maps on wunderground have finally been fixed so they go out to 180 hours again. It has been limited to 144 hours for the last couple months. The Euro continues to flop around quite a bit in the 7-10 day period. A couple runs are cold, then a couple runs of much milder, then cold again, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 6z GFS is a turd...coooooold ...average temps are mid/upper 50Fs now. This has been a broken record for a good 5 days or more...showing the same thing. Still haven't hit 60F here... going to be at least next week before we do.... Leaf out should occur sometime in early June at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 6z GFS is a turd...coooooold ...average temps are mid/upper 50Fs now. This has been a broken record for a good 5 days or more...showing the same thing. Still haven't hit 60F here... going to be at least next week before we do.... Leaf out should occur sometime in early June at this rate. That's good, slowly making up for last year's warmest ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 6z GFS is a turd...coooooold ...average temps are mid/upper 50Fs now. This has been a broken record for a good 5 days or more...showing the same thing. --- Still haven't hit 60F here... going to be at least next week before we do.... Leaf out should occur sometime in early June at this rate. Ugly. Probably be May before I hit 70°. Leaf out could be a couple weeks late if the departures continue like that map shows. Maybe the small shrubs and bushes can manage to leaf out on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 lol now people are ignoring the ECMWF now that it is moving warmer farther north than the GFS. Euro has been on the money with the current system, eventually people will stop using the GFS beyond 5 days as it has been horrible at that range for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Euro has been on the money with the current system, eventually people will stop using the GFS beyond 5 days as it has been horrible at that range for a while now. Glad you pointed this out. There has been some substantial flip flop taking place in the GFS for the last week or so. We often hear that during a pattern shift or breakdown sometime the models struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 eventually it will stop siggy snowing in MN/WI/MI. Opening weekend of the fishing season up north on May 4th has a chance to greet the fisherman with iced in lakes yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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