daddylonglegs Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Suicide watch on the 12z GFS... we might hit 60F by Memorial day at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Man the EURO and GFS are worlds apart for the weekend system. EURO says we could hit 60..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Suicide watch on the 12z GFS... we might hit 60F by Memorial day at this rate. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Man the EURO and GFS are worlds apart for the weekend system. EURO says we could hit 60..... Unfortunately, the GFS and Euro agree on a chilly next week for the upper midwest/lakes. Both are back down to low 40s for highs by midweek. The 12z GFS even shifts most of the rain south of I-80. The torchy pattern the Euro was teasing a few days ago is long gone. Ugh. At least we get a few mild days late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Unfortunately, the GFS and Euro agree on a chilly next week for the upper midwest/lakes. Both are back down to low 40s for highs by midweek. The 12z GFS even shifts most of the rain south of I-80. The torchy pattern the Euro was teasing a few days ago is long gone. Ugh. At least we get a few mild days late this week. Ya next week looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 If the euro verified we would see a touch of accumulating snow monday. Followed by our 2nd biggest April snowstorm on record wed-thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 If the euro verified we would see a touch of accumulating snow monday. Followed by our 2nd biggest April snowstorm on record wed-thu. We've been chasing a mirage since the beginning of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 If the euro verified we would see a touch of accumulating snow monday. Followed by our 2nd biggest April snowstorm on record wed-thu. I am not seeing the 2nd part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Ya next week looks like crap. Slow and steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 We've been chasing a mirage since the beginning of March. to be honest, nothing ever looked really good in March. We were never really modeled in the bullseye of anything, one or two runs had us get skimmed by something or another, but most things looked suppressed and thats what happened. The March 16th performed about exactly as expected and thats the only real weather event of March that had any interest to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I am not seeing the 2nd part. http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.html Time sensitive (updates twice daily, around 3pm for the 12z and 3am for the 00z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 southeast michigan has a better chance at 70 than "snow". I am not in anyway giving a forecast, I merely uttered the phrase heard THOUSANDS of times per year on this board "if this model verifies...". Chances of any model verifying a week out are next to nothing, its just very interesting when a snowstorm is modeled in mid-April in the longrange (usually April snow threats are not modeled far out). And yes, the 12z euro says lots of SNOW for wed/thu, ending as rain...nothing CLOSE to 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.html Time sensitive (updates twice daily, around 3pm for the 12z and 3am for the 00z) Yeah the maps don't agree with that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I am not in anyway giving a forecast, I merely uttered the phrase heard THOUSANDS of times per year on this board "if this model verifies...". Chances of any model verifying a week out are next to nothing, its just very interesting when a snowstorm is modeled in mid-April in the longrange (usually April snow threats are not modeled far out). And yes, the 12z euro says lots of SNOW for wed/thu, ending as rain...nothing CLOSE to 70F. Even if it does show snow. Most of it won't collect. Especially during daylight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Yeah the maps don't agree with that at all. I have access to no euro maps so thats the link ive been using all winter as my "text output". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The AO seems to want to go from one extreme to another. Don S and QVectorman have been hinting at a rather significant pattern change mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I have access to no euro maps so thats the link ive been using all winter as my "text output". http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/ecmwf.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Even if it does show snow. Most of it won't collect. Especially during daylight hours S+ would collect in july. We see this every year on here...and if the conditions are right snow will collect in the day and certainly at night. I can name dozens of examples. Look at our most recent april snowfall, april 18, 2011. Wasn't ecen moderate and haf no problem collecting during the day. NOT saying that we get a snowstorm next week either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Even if it does show snow. Most of it won't collect. Especially during daylight hours accumulating or not, the anomaly of it would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The "it can't/won't accumulate during daytime" myth needs to die. It's all about snow intensity/rates. If it's falls hard enough, even during the daytime, it's going to accumulate. Late March, early April, whatever...whenever. See the March 24-25 storm in MO, IL, and IN for a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I need 80F and i need it now...this is getting old. Trying to do things outside...looks great out there, blue skies, sunshine (which is very high at this point).....then i hit with cold wind and freezing temps... NAEFS has a cold look again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The "it can't/won't accumulate during daytime" myth needs to die. It's all about snow intensity/rates. If it's falls hard enough, even during the daytime, it's going to accumulate. Late March, early April, whatever...whenever. See the March 24-25 storm in MO, IL, and IN for a good example. Yeah anyone who says snow can't accumulate doesn't know what they are talking about. Hell the ground here is still froze do 20" deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I need 80F and i need it now...this is getting old. Trying to do things outside...looks great out there, blue skies, sunshine (which is very high at this point).....then i hit with cold wind and freezing temps... Even in a warm pattern, 80 degrees in your area in April is rare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Even in a warm pattern, 80 degrees in your area in April is rare... First half somewhat, but second half of the month has legit 80º+ temp possibilities up there. Even 90's. Of course, it has to be a pig ridge type pattern. Really warm/hot patterns have produced 90º temps in LaCrosse as early as April 6, 1991 (91º). And April 10, 1930...with a 91º. So on and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 First half somewhat, but second half of the month has legit 80º+ temp possibilities up there. Even 90's. Of course, it has to be a pig ridge type pattern. Really warm/hot patterns have produced 90º temps in LaCrosse as early as April 6, 1991 (91º). And April 10, 1930...with a 91º. So on and so forth. I think Andy means consistent 80s for the month which would be very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I think Andy means consistent 80s for the month which would be very rare. Yes, this is more along the lines of what I was referring to, if we were to get a March, 2012 setup in April, then there would be a much higher chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 I think Andy means consistent 80s for the month which would be very rare. Yes, this is more along the lines of what I was referring to, if we were to get a March, 2012 setup in April, then there would be a much higher chance. Fair enough. But I also know DDL doesn't expect consistent 80's in April in LaCrosse, despite what he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Yeah anyone who says snow can't accumulate doesn't know what they are talking about. Hell the ground here is still froze do 20" deep. I never said it can't accumulate just most of the QPF will have a tough time collecting. Just lower totals then if it was the middle of winter. I just dug a footing 18" deep today there is little in way of frost believe it or not. I thought it would be an issue its not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Seems this thread is mostly about looking for 80º temps, so I thought I'd start a medium range severe weather thread for the sub-forum. Hopefully the severe wx crew can drop some science. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39895-2013-glov-medium-range-severe-weather-discussion/'>http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39895-2013-glov-medium-range-severe-weather-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 If the euro verified we would see a touch of accumulating snow monday. Followed by our 2nd biggest April snowstorm on record wed-thu. I am not seeing the 2nd part. http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.html Time sensitive (updates twice daily, around 3pm for the 12z and 3am for the 00z) Yeah the maps don't agree with that at all. The 12z ECMWF showed 6-12"+ from ORD to DTW from two systems in the Sun-Thur timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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