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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 5


Harry

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NAEFS sure looks like it is showing a pattern change by mid month or earlier..  i wouldn't doubt we go above normal sometime around there...hope we can grab a solid week of 60F or low 70Fs...

 

Yep, NAEFS hinting towards a warm up for the first time in weeks. Finally a lack of deep blue over the subforum!

 

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This is pretty strongly suggestive of one or more severe episodes during this period (in addition to welcomed rain), as is this...

 

test8c.gif

 

Oddly enough, the GFS ensembles have the AO dropping into a black hole again (but this time with a near neutral NAO as opposed to strongly negative like we saw earlier in March).

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This is pretty strongly suggestive of one or more severe episodes during this period (in addition to welcomed rain), as is this...

 

 

 

Oddly enough, the GFS ensembles have the AO dropping into a black hole again (but this time with a near neutral NAO as opposed to strongly negative like we saw earlier in March).

 

Looks like all the cold air is funneled into eastern Canada and it doesn't get shoved south. Europe looks to stay chilly though.

 

Pattern doesn't look bad at all! 

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Time to pull my goalie, or the salter for the finial time this season. Last time I removed it, 3 days later it snowed. Spring is ready to pounce, planted some grass seed, trees are about to crack open the buds and frogs are comming to life at last. Even the ground is warming up to the point of no frost even in the shady areas.

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GFS suddenly backing off the warmup for next weekend into next week.  12z run is squashing the warmth back to the south, leaving the northern half of the forum in a chilly east flow with plenty of rain.  A couple runs ago the Euro had a steady rise to the 70s by early next week, but the GFS now has only mid 50s later this week dropping back down to the low to mid 40s for a few days.  That'd be a real downer after the promising last few days of runs.

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GFS suddenly backing off the warmup for next weekend into next week.  12z run is squashing the warmth back to the south, leaving the northern half of the forum in a chilly east flow with plenty of rain.  A couple runs ago the Euro had a steady rise to the 70s by early next week, but the GFS now has only mid 50s later this week dropping back down to the low to mid 40s for a few days.  That'd be a real downer after the promising last few days of runs.

At the same time the 12 z gfs jacks the nao

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12z Euro has jumped back north with the late week baroclinic zone so it's much warmer than the GFS, but the Euro has joined the GFS with a much chillier extended period.  Yesterday's 12z Euro had 70s across Iowa Mon/Tue, but today's 12z drops us all the way to the 40s.  The new run has some warmer air wedging into the arctic that effectively shifts the pattern across the US farther south.  With a strong spring baroclinic zone little shifts can bring big temp swings, so it's hard to tell what it'll be like next week.  A widespread soaking rain north of the front would be nice, but it'd be pretty raw as well.

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