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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 5


Harry

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Baseball season going to get off to a cold start.

 

0z Euro ensemble mean 6-10 day 850 temperature departures below. 0z and 6z GEFS keep the cooler anomalies right through the 11-15 day range, FWIW.

 

Yeah, opening day in the MKE is going to be a blast..... NE winds and 35F . Going to take a lot of beer and whiskey to overcome that.

 

 

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Naefs continues the cold show...most below normal in the lakes area..not so bad for areas west and north...

 

Still looks like we go through another week like this next week before there is any chance at my 60F... 

 

I'll be honest, with the sun and calm winds these 40F temps don't feel that bad.

Even with wind the 40F temps don't feel that bad.

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Naefs continues the cold show...most below normal in the lakes area..not so bad for areas west and north...

 

Still looks like we go through another week like this next week before there is any chance at my 60F... 

 

I'll be honest, with the sun and calm winds these 40F temps don't feel that bad.

My dad HATES...I mean HATES snow. But he loves northern MI. So he just HAD to tag along with my mom and me when we went on our U.P. snowtrip Mar 8-10. On the 10th we drove home through a chilly northern MI rainstorm and that was the day that DTW skyrocketed to 65F in the warm sector of the rainstorm with raging WAA. It was still mild when we got back, but it was dark out. That was by far our only taste of spring this year so far...and he missed it. I told him it was his punishment :lol:

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DLL - there's still an East based block on those maps. I wouldn't expect any sustained warmth just yet. Ridging nosing towards the North Pole doesn't help our cause either.

There were some positive trends last night, as the Euro especially has been trying to hang onto a more west based block at times in the mid-range. A large Alaskan ridge isn't a lock to get cold very far south into the US, but it certainly can if there's any Atlantic side help. We'll see...I think we see more near normal temperatures by mid-April (even if it's variable with warm shots and cold shots evening eachother out), although that will need to be watched if the Atlantic blocking can hang on longer than anticipated.

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Euro ensembles definitely suggesting something developing in the west as it undercuts the AK ridge along with a nice, low amplitude ridge out ahead of it for WAA towards the second week of the month, probably worth keeping an eye on. A lot of the models are suggesting a rather favorable teleconnection regime (with an increasingly negative PNA and a decreasingly negative NAO) comes into the picture as this timeframe rolls through, and also QVector mentioned an RWT around the 10th-12th.

 

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starting to string together some better consistency on the mid month warmup.

 

euro weeklies have headed that direction. They actually have the warm up starting around the 8th and or week 2. Week 1 is cold but that is it after that. Week 2 warm/above normal and then week 3/4 near normal.

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