Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah I think people misunderstand my point, I am not calling for immediate above normal temperatures as soon as we hit April, however I do think moderation much closer to normal is in order as we begin April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah I think people misunderstand my point, I am not calling for immediate above normal temperatures as soon as we hit April, however I do think moderation much closer to normal is in order as we begin April. to me it looks like a slow moderation and quite an active period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah...I'm good to go for warmth after this current snowstorm. Euro and GFS ensembles have other ideas for the early part of April though. wonder who is using your account! Because Tim would never say anything about wishing for warmer weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I saw you guys mention RDale earlier. He's still around, in Mason MI. I think of Brick Tamland when I see this pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Last night's GFS keeps the subforum below normal tempwise through the first week of April, after the brief warmup this weekend. Maybe not snowmaking temps, but cool. I'm ready for several days of at least normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 WWBB guy here.... It was a ghost town during the summer. People probably less cooped up in the house, but still....I made the jump from Webb also (centralohio) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Worst weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Worst weather Yeo those glimmers of airing that were showing up have gone by the wayside again. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 NAEFS looks the same every day.... Might be mid April before we feel warmth at this rate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Only positive I see this morning is the GEFS shows a positive NAO in the long range for the first time in about forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I looked at all Marches in Indianapolis that had an average temp below 40º (since the airport became the official site in 1943)...and rolled it forward through August for each year. There have been 26 of them, not including 2013. Below are the total results. Just a statistical look at things, don't take it to the bank. Around average means within 0.5º either way of normal for each month. April Above normal: 10 Below Normal: 16 May Above normal: 15 Below normal: 11 June Above normal: 11 Below normal: 10 Around normal: 5 July Above normal: 7 Below normal: 12 Around normal: 7 August Above normal: 9 Below normal: 10 Around normal: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I was looking at the 00z Ecmwf just to get a general sense of what weather will hit Toledo and Detroit. Looking specifically at the 540dm 1000-500 thickness line, i.e. the wintertime "rain-snow line." 24h: below 48h: below 72h: below 96h: below120h: 540dm is near Toledo 144h: 540dm is near Toledo 168h: much below 192h: 540dm is near Toledo 216h: above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Euro keeps the NAO is the tank throughout. GFS and GEFS showing positives trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Suppression city on the models for the Midwest unless something can happen around April 8 in model fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Suppression city on the models for the Midwest unless something can happen around April 8 in model fantasyland. Agreed the AO coming out of the tank at least on the US models will have me coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 ughhhh... 12z NAEFS looks horrible for that time period...my God... wtf! we are going to have to work really hard to get some 50Fs in here before mid April at this rate. This may be a year that ice fishing will be possible late in the month... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013032612_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 ughhhh... 12z NAEFS looks horrible for that time period...my God... wtf! we are going to have to work really hard to get some 50Fs in here before mid April at this rate. This may be a year that ice fishing will be possible late in the month... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013032612_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Yay more suppression and cold NW flow, something to really get excited about there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Will likely be heading down to St Louis most of next week, so I'm sure we will see a GLC hit the W Great Lakes with several inches of snow during that period. I would not write off the potential for a decent storm, as some of the GFS Ensembles indicating the potential from about 216-264 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Suppression city on the models for the Midwest unless something can happen around April 8 in model fantasyland. 12Z Euro also keeps 850's @ -5C or below from 120 on through the rest of the run up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Will likely be heading down to St Louis most of next week, so I'm sure we will see a GLC hit the W Great Lakes with several inches of snow during that period. I would not write off the potential for a decent storm, as some of the GFS Ensembles indicating the potential from about 216-264 hours. Yeah I agree, we are done with the snow threats yet. Looks like the AO remains negative for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 Still not gonna sweat my warmer second half of April ideas YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 12Z Euro also keeps 850's @ -5C or below from 120 on through the rest of the run up here.. See I don't see what is so enjoyable about that at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Cromartie/Tropical/whateverthehellhisnameisnow must be hating this ongoing cold pattern. In a way it's too bad he was banned for the 5th or 10th time, since we can't shove all these cold outlooks in his face like he did to many of you guys with the warm outlooks the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Cromartie/Tropical/whateverthehellhisnameisnow must be hating this ongoing cold pattern. In a way it's too bad he was banned for the 5th or 10th time, since we can't shove all these cold outlooks in his face like he did to many of you guys with the warm outlooks the last several years. I think he works at the CPC. Look at the next year of outlooks... They default to above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I think he works at the CPC. Look at the next year of outlooks... They default to above normal. My dad told me he saw on the news the weather outlook for spring was above normal temps even though it started out cold. (I realized it was the CPC maps they were showing). I tried to briefly explain the warm bias cpc injects into their outlooks but decided to just leave it at this. I said you know the map you saw? Last month at this time its depiction for March was blazing red across the country. How did that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Baseball season going to get off to a cold start. 0z Euro ensemble mean 6-10 day 850 temperature departures below. 0z and 6z GEFS keep the cooler anomalies right through the 11-15 day range, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 punt till July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Not even worth looking at the models anymore, since they show the same thing every day....only "good" part is our avg's are rising so fast, that normal in mid April is right around 60F .... Leaf out is going to be so late this year... Turkey hunting is going to be a mess this year (because of all the snow north of here)... Youth hunt in Wisconsin starts April 6th-7th and 1st season (there are 6) starts April 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Looks like a good start to winter 13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 punt till July lol ji of the Midwest spring cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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