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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 5


Harry

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Yeah I think people misunderstand my point, I am not calling for immediate above normal temperatures as soon as we hit April, however I do think moderation much closer to normal is in order as we begin April.

to me it looks like a slow moderation and quite an active period

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I looked at all Marches in Indianapolis that had an average temp below 40º (since the airport became the official site in 1943)...and rolled it forward through August for each year. There have been 26 of them, not including 2013. Below are the total results. Just a statistical look at things, don't take it to the bank. 

 

Around average means within 0.5º either way of normal for each month.

 

April

Above normal: 10

Below Normal: 16

 

May

Above normal: 15

Below normal: 11

 

June

Above normal: 11

Below normal: 10

Around normal: 5

 

July

Above normal: 7

Below normal: 12

Around normal: 7

 

August

Above normal: 9

Below normal: 10

Around normal: 7

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I was looking at the 00z Ecmwf just to get a general sense of what weather will hit Toledo and Detroit. Looking specifically at the 540dm 1000-500 thickness line, i.e. the wintertime "rain-snow line."

 

24h: below

48h: below

72h: below

96h: below
120h: 540dm is near Toledo

144h: 540dm is near Toledo

168h: much below

192h: 540dm is near Toledo

216h: above

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ughhhh...  12z NAEFS looks horrible for that time period...my God...  wtf!  we are going to have to work really hard to get some 50Fs in here before mid April at this rate.  This may be a year that ice fishing will be possible late in the month...

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013032612_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

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ughhhh...  12z NAEFS looks horrible for that time period...my God...  wtf!  we are going to have to work really hard to get some 50Fs in here before mid April at this rate.  This may be a year that ice fishing will be possible late in the month...

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013032612_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

 

Yay more suppression and cold NW flow, something to really get excited about there... :axe:

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Will likely be heading down to St Louis most of next week, so I'm sure we will see a GLC hit the W Great Lakes with several inches of snow during that period.  I would not write off the potential for a decent storm, as some of the GFS Ensembles indicating the potential from about 216-264 hours.

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Will likely be heading down to St Louis most of next week, so I'm sure we will see a GLC hit the W Great Lakes with several inches of snow during that period.  I would not write off the potential for a decent storm, as some of the GFS Ensembles indicating the potential from about 216-264 hours.

 

Yeah I agree, we are done with the snow threats yet. 

 

Looks like the AO remains negative for awhile.  :yikes:

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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Cromartie/Tropical/whateverthehellhisnameisnow must be hating this ongoing cold pattern.  In a way it's too bad he was banned for the 5th or 10th time, since we can't shove all these cold outlooks in his face like he did to many of you guys with the warm outlooks the last several years. 

I think he works at the CPC. Look at the next year of outlooks... They default to above normal.

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I think he works at the CPC. Look at the next year of outlooks... They default to above normal.

My dad told me he saw on the news the weather outlook for spring was above normal temps even though it started out cold. (I realized it was the CPC maps they were showing). I tried to briefly explain the warm bias cpc injects into their outlooks but decided to just leave it at this. I said you know the map you saw? Last month at this time its depiction for March was blazing red across the country. How did that work out?

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Not even worth looking at the models anymore, since they show the same thing every day....only "good" part is our avg's are rising so fast, that normal in mid April is right around 60F ....

 

Leaf out is going to be so late this year...  Turkey hunting is going to be a mess this year (because of all the snow north of here)...  Youth hunt in Wisconsin starts April 6th-7th and 1st season (there are 6) starts April 10th... 

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