Indystorm Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS hinting maybe severe around the 4th? April 2-3 and the time around the 8th look good for Midwest and Heartland svr prospects at present. I am just waiting for the block to break down so we can get the pattern shift that will allow a western trough to form to start the normal spring svr season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Looks like March 1984 was slightly colder than March 2013 IMBY.... It was 2 degrees colder, unlikely to catch that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro has been inconsistent with its later period forecast, but the new 12z run shows 70s up to this area by day 9/10. It's the first hint of genuine warmth we've seen in weeks. Even 60s would be awesome and feel like a heat wave after the last two months. It can't get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro has been inconsistent with its later period forecast, but the new 12z run shows 70s up to this area by day 9/10. It's the first hint of genuine warmth we've seen in weeks. Even 60s would be awesome and feel like a heat wave after the last two months. It can't get here soon enough. Cautiously optimistic. Euro jumping would make me feel a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 12z GFS just absolutely unloads the Pacific Jet into the long range, that would be an impressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 12z GFS just absolutely unloads the Pacific Jet into the long range, that would be an impressive pattern. When can we expect a 4/11/65 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 When can we expect a 4/11/65 redux? 4/11/13 +/- a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Time flies eh? Pretty much. WWBB was just a stopping point ( from the old twc forums/neweather etc ) for all and then when the people who owned wwbb could not keep up with the traffic etc a group of east coast people ( and a former midwesterner who passed away a few of years back ) got eastern rolling in early 2004. Way back in the wwbb days there was only a few from west of the apps and thus me, buckeye, Chicagowx, Hoosier, rdale, michsnowfreak, jbcmh, Some dude ( unsure of his name on here or if he even made it? ) from Kansas, and a couple of others. Alek arrived well after eastern started. Had a few from down south and sw part of the country more into the tropics but that was it. During the mid/late spring and summer back then the forums were dead unless a cane was threatening I95. All the action was in winter and thus what most came for. Usually things picked up around August when the winter outlook discussions got rolling. I was actually on there as Pinwheeler. It seems like we had a few of us discussing Michigan and Ohio, maybe a couple in Chicago. Other than that, it was East Coast people. There used to be awesome forecast debates of DT/HM/Meteotrade. The summertime discussions of severe weather were pretty slow compared to these days, like 10 posts every once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 When can we expect a 4/11/65 redux? Joking aside, I do think there is a slight enhanced chance of a decent outbreak for this region this year compared to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don Sutherland's latest thoughts. Just sayin'... Some early morning thoughts... 3. The generally colder than normal pattern is likely to persist into April. There continue to be some hints of an outbreak of unseasonably cold air that could allow for some snow in such cities as Chicago, Cleveland, Albany, Worcester, and Boston, along with the chance that NYC could see its first April freeze since 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don Sutherland's latest thoughts. Just sayin'... Not exactly what I would like to hear! lol It's been a nice back loaded winter, but I'm ready for warmer weather now. CPC outlook look below normal for the region still through the 7th. EC showing below normal temps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Not exactly what I would like to hear! lol It's been a nice back loaded winter, but I'm ready for warmer weather now. CPC outlook look below normal for the region still through the 7th. Yeah...I'm good to go for warmth after this current snowstorm. Euro and GFS ensembles have other ideas for the early part of April though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah...I'm good to go for warmth after this current snowstorm. Euro and GFS ensembles have other ideas for the early part of April though. With how you've been cheering on the cold, it would be perfect payback for it to keep hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 With how you've been cheering on the cold, it would be perfect payback for it to keep hanging around. lol If I only could have saved this cold March for this upcoming June, July, or August. Or all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 lol If I only could have saved this cold March for this upcoming June, July, or August. Or all three. You'd have half the forum coming after you with pitchforks, if that happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 You'd have half the forum coming after you with pitchforks, if that happened lol. Powerball might hire a hitman to take me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don Sutherland's latest thoughts. Just sayin'... Yeah I saw this, though I am not sure where his reasoning comes from unless he expects to block to still remain in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah I saw this, though I am not sure where his reasoning comes from unless he expects to block to still remain in place. +PNA, -NAO, and an AO that is not going to shoot straight to "super" positive values. Remember when that was modeled to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 +PNA, -NAO, and an AO that is not going to shoot straight to "super" positive values. Remember when that was modeled to happen? Yes they are going to be like that but, the NAO is rising the AO is also rising and the PNA is heading toward neutral and with some models negative. The trend is there to go closer to normal, or at least not a cold outbreak like he is mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yes they are going to be like that but, the NAO is rising the AO is also rising and the PNA is heading toward neutral and with some models negative. The trend is there to go closer to normal, or at least not a cold outbreak like he is mentioning. It'll get warm for good eventually Stebo. But, Mr. Sutherland is pretty good at what he does. People scoffed at his March ideas too, and look where that got them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It'll get warm for good eventually Stebo. But, Mr. Sutherland is pretty good at what he does. People scoffed at his March ideas too, and look where that got them. I am not discounting his track record, I just don't agree with it entirely. We are entitled to disagree with others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I am not discounting his track record, I just don't agree with it entirely. We are entitled to disagree with others... Don't get all defensive. I understand we all can agree to disagree about the weather. That's why we're all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Thing we have to keep in mind is that averages are getting up there, so decently below average may not be that cold. It's natural to expect the battle zone to shift north as blocking lets up from extreme levels and as we get ever later in the season. Assuming temps are below average in the long range, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the risk for late season snow may be a bit heightened compared to climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Thing we have to keep in mind is that averages are getting up there, so decently below average may not be that cold. It's natural to expect the battle zone to shift north as blocking lets up from extreme levels and as we get ever later in the season. Assuming temps are below average in the long range, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the risk for late season snow may be a bit heightened compared to climo... When I think of unseasonably cold outbreak, I see a stretch of highs in the 30s >3 days. Maybe we are arguing over semantics but those words to me signify something significant and I just don't see that in the cards. Below to near normal possible/probable but something -10 to -15 below the averages which i would consider an unseasonably cold outbreak doesn't seem likely right now. Can it change, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 60º is the normal high at LAF on April 7. So yeah, I mean...50º on that day would be considered "cold", technically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 60º is the normal high at LAF on April 7. So yeah, I mean...50º on that day would be considered "cold", technically. Yeah however he is focused further North and East where the average highs around that time are closer to 50-55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yeah however he is focused further North and East where the average highs around that time are closer to 50-55. Whether he ends up being right or wrong, he clearly names cities such as Chicago and Cleveland on his post, which are obviously not "further north and east". Same old stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Whether he ends up being right or wrong, he clearly names cities such as Chicago and Cleveland on his post, which are obviously not "further north and east". Same old stebo. Oh I didn't know those cities were south of LAF. He also said Woucester, Boston and Albany, but lets ignore that. Same old troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It depends on how much the trough developing out of the PV over Hudson's Bay amplifies, there is variability to how far the cold air mass and more importantly for how long, if a Euro solution were to verify, then it would likely be colder for a longer period of time. The GFS and a chunk of the ensembles suggest it may be transient and that parts of this region may warm up prior to the system that looks to come out of the west towards next weekend. How far south the ULL/trough lingers in the Northeast will also likely dictate whether the trough coming out of the west gets sheared apart upon interaction with the northern stream ala the Euro or is able to develop more substantially ala the GFS. The GFS solution would likely mean more active weather of some variety for this region (be it snow or potentially severe wx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Don S and his reasoning fall slightly in-line with QVector. Next part of that story which wasn't mentioned ,is the idea by both for a well above normal stretch and significant mild up as we progress into mid April. Wether it happens or not is yet to be seen but those two guys have been blow'n peoples doors off with the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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