Hoosier Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Long range continues to hint at real summer weather setting in with prolonged western troughing and central/southeast US ridging. If this general look verifies then there should be numerous chances for convection with northern/central areas of the subforum being favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 yeah, looking pretty choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Has the sub forum had this good-looking of a pattern in recent years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Has the sub forum had this good-looking of a pattern in recent years? HM has posted some interesting thoughts on the overall pattern in the C/W long range thread. He is bullish on potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 HM has posted some interesting thoughts on the overall pattern in the C/W long range thread. He is bullish on potential. I have been watching this potential for several days I am in complete agreement with him, rarely do you have a 160kt phased jet max crossing the Pacific and it not yield, this time is no exception either. It forces several lee side cyclones starting as soon as 5-6 days from now, and then it is basically non-stop for over a week. I am very certain there will be several severe weather episodes for the Plains into the Great Lakes and MS/OH valleys. This upcoming pattern has had very strong consistency in the models both run to run and across all models suites. It has already been shown for over 5 days now with no real changes except in the minor details, the pattern itself has been consistent. Here are some choice graphics from the 12z Euro/12z Canadian/18z GFS broken into 3 posts. First the 12z Euro Here is 200mb at Day 6 and Day 7 500mb You can see piece number 1 coming in at Day 6 with a strong jet right behind it, noted in the compaction of the height lines Skipping ahead a couple days to day 9 you can see the pattern remains loaded all the way across the Pacific and the Pacific Jet is still screaming across to the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Now the 12z Canadian 250mb Day 5 Day 7 Day 9 Here you really get the idea of the wave train that goes all the way back to Asia by Day 9, we are talking about a hyperactive pattern that we haven't seen at this time of year in quite some time. 500mb Day 5 with system 1 Day 7 System 1 lifts into the Dakotas and System 2 drops into New Mexico, with system 3 and 4 over the Pacific NW Day 9 System 1 lifts into Canada, System 2 pulls out into the Midwest, System 3 is right on its heels in the Northern Rockies with System 4 poised to come ashore at Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Lastly the 18z GFS 4 1/2 Days out from now you can see the strong jet max over the Ocean already starting to dive toward the Southern part of the West Coast. By Day 6 it has come ashore and is yielding a full latitude trough that is already taking a slight negative tilt Day 7 the energy is poised to drop into the backside of the trough By Day 8 the system is lifting into the Dakotas and the Midwest with another piece is dropping in Some of the minor details such as timing would represent the only differences in the models, however looking as the sheer number of troughs forecast to come ashore, needless to say it looks like an active period starting 5 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Good analysis here, yeah I'm beginning to think we have the potential for a substantially active pattern here into June. Like mentioned, you don't see such a strong and longitudinally extensive jet streak this time of year very often at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Lastly the 18z GFS 4 1/2 Days out from now you can see the strong jet max over the Ocean already starting to dive toward the Southern part of the West Coast. By Day 6 it has come ashore and is yielding a full latitude trough that is already taking a slight negative tilt Day 7 the energy is poised to drop into the backside of the trough By Day 8 the system is lifting into the Dakotas and the Midwest with another piece is dropping in Some of the minor details such as timing would represent the only differences in the models, however looking as the sheer number of troughs forecast to come ashore, needless to say it looks like an active period starting 5 days from now. Great post and you do believe this threat will extend eastward into the OV and GL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Great post and you do believe this threat will extend eastward into the OV and GL? . I am very certain there will be several severe weather episodes for the Plains into the Great Lakes and MS/OH valleys. He's back ladies and gentleman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 He's back ladies and gentleman Some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 He's back ladies and gentleman Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I am still very interested in this pattern over the next 4-10 days, what I mentioned above hasn't wavered at all. I do think the focus would be a bit further North this time around however. I do also think this will eventually extend into the GLOV as well. Some really significant jet dynamics are going to take place over the Plains starting around 84 to 96 hours out with a corresponding strong leeside cyclone forming in the KS/NE areas eventually ejecting toward the MN arrowhead after a few days. I wouldn't be shocked to see some 4-8 day risk areas starting to pop up very soon especially for the Plains, maybe as soon as tonight. The 2 periods right now that I am watching are Monday-Tuesday and Thursday-Friday maybe into Saturday if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 This could be our first chance of significant severe here in the IL/IN/MI area this season if things work out as trending for the latter portion of this coming week. Sat. morning GFS continues the signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Early look at September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Early look at September Pretty sure that would be a bearable type of warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Pretty sure that would be a bearable type of warm. First week or two of September is capable of big torches (we had a string of upper 90s in early Sep 2011) but it gets more difficult after that. But I was surprised to find that the average high for LAF on September 1 is 83. That is only 2 degrees below the summer peak of 85. Averages drop off pretty quickly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Hoosier, I won't bother to re post your temp map from the CFS, but I will add the Precp. map. Looks to me like the CFS is predicting a rather active late August through Sept period for the gulf States, with possible tropical storms impacting the area. With the current pattern being so amplified, I think something big will have to happen in order to change it, and I don't think it is going to come from the northern latitudes, its most likely to come from the southern latitudes. In other words a good tropical system could lift the ridge that seems to be stuck to our south up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 Early look at September This didn't take long. Oh yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 This didn't take long. Oh yeah... CFSv2.NaT2m.20130804.201309.gif Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 The CFS is just mimicking the western ridge of current GFS runs. If the pattern changes in the 2nd half of August, so will the CFS. Good point. CFS is really only good for laughs at this range but with the current stale pattern I'll take anything to track/monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 First week or two of September is capable of big torches (we had a string of upper 90s in early Sep 2011) but it gets more difficult after that. But I was surprised to find that the average high for LAF on September 1 is 83. That is only 2 degrees below the summer peak of 85. Averages drop off pretty quickly after that. Last two years we've seen it. Reffed some games and so many kids were pulling up with cramps from the heat, I believe it was in the Upper 90s the last few seasons for highs on those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Pretty sure that would be a bearable type of warm. First week or two of September is capable of big torches (we had a string of upper 90s in early Sep 2011) but it gets more difficult after that. But I was surprised to find that the average high for LAF on September 1 is 83. That is only 2 degrees below the summer peak of 85. Averages drop off pretty quickly after that. Our average high starts dropping around July 25th from the summer peak of 82. The first sign of that is the average low ticks down 1 degree. It is a slow drop until around Sept 15th, I think the biggest drop is the entire month of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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