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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 5

Harry

By Harry,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Casino and a night in Detroit with friends tomorrow, and then mom/brother's birthday Saturday. Totally planning on taking advantage of warm weather. 

 

Yeah I think we have about 5 days of decently warm weather until probably Wed/Thursday next week then things look to get iffy.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
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Truth hurts don't it, the fact that this forum caters to you like that sub does to that idiot in SNE, this isnt your personal chat room. This is a weather forum.

 

 

lol what truth?

 

you sure filled the last page up with wx talk..  practice what you preach, MCM.

 

Yup just checked..  still looks rather boring in the extended.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
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Nah. She's got health issues so that's probably not gonna work out too well. An afternoon at home. Cook out. Stuff like that. 

 

 

So sorry to hear that and I hope she gets w/e she needs to make a full recovery.  I love having summer or anytime cookouts with the parents.. Life is too short, enjoy every moment you can with loved ones.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

First of all  I had questions in my mind if I should post this the central  plains forum or the GL/OV forum, I decided to put here because it would affect Daddy Long Legs  before it would effect any one else.  This is what I posted at the Minnesota Forecaster site...

 

 

First off all, welcome to late spring, the warm up that was advertised 10 days ago by the models will happen, enjoy the warm temps. My attention than turns to Tues evening and beyond. As we get into Tuesday late afternoon a strong upper level jet streak will set up to our north west over far North Central ND and intensify by 7pm to 140 knots, it will be orientated sw to ne. That will place SE MN including the metro in the right rear quadrant of said jet streak, an area that is favorable for precip.

Looking at the 500mb charts, that will usher in a strong trough to our northwest with a nice area of diffluence (sp) over SE MN, just ahead of the strong cold front. While severe weather may be a possibility over the metro in the form of strong winds as the cold front approaches, the best chance of severe weather will be in ARX's area of responsibility in SE MN as crossover winds (south se at 925 mb to west sw at 500mb set up.) They did mention in their 04/25 pm discussion a possibility of supercell Thunderstorms, and I agree, so Tuesday looks interesting at this point.

Once that upper level trough drops through our area it will become separated from both the northern jet and southern jet causing a upper low to develop by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

That upper level low could meander for a few days anywhere west of the Rocky mountains, therefor take any forecast beyond Tuesday with the biggest pile of salt you can find. We may not have any confidence until Mondays models come in.

By the way, the confidence of severe weather is only 50/50 at this time, as I wonder about the quality of low level moisture ie: dew points that may make it this far north.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
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Dude anyone who has been around long enough ( you have ) that knows bowme should know better. And bringing up drinking issues is totally lame. Tim was spot on.

 

Yep, easy Wisconsin stereotype to pin.  Having talked to Bowme both here and over Skype, I can tell you I wouldn't be making any assumptions one way or the other wrt whether he has drunk ramblings or not.  He has a sense of humor, but at the same time generally has a good sense of when to use it and a good mix of both humor and perspective.

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Harry

Harry

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First week of May looks like :axe: time.  More heavy rain is just what the doctor ordered.  More wet flakes is not out of the question either.

 

Decent thunderstorm potential on the 30th though if the 12z GFS is correct.  After that it's down hill.

 

Last few runs of the GFS would actually be accumulating snow. Amazing stuff for sure if it all pans out considering it will be May. Has been accumulating May snow before around here before but i have never seen it so it would be a first for me. Have seen some flakes in May but that is it. Considering the oddity of it i say bring it on if it is gonna accumulate.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Posted

Last few runs of the GFS would actually be accumulating snow. Amazing stuff for sure if it all pans out considering it will be May. Has been accumulating May snow before around here before but i have never seen it so it would be a first for me. Have seen some flakes in May but that is it. Considering the oddity of it i say bring it on if it is gonna accumulate.

 

Have to pull for the ever so very rare accumulating May snow. 12z 18z GFS even had some down here. Lock...it...up. :D

 

LOLz :weenie:

 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Snow/cold weenies just have to wish for a boring suppressed spring/summer with no thunderstorms. I don't care for another death ridge but I also don't want to be on the back side of a cutoff all May and June. It's not like the severe snobs go around rooting for mild and rain in the middle of winter.

I think most of us who wish for a cool summer do so because we want a cool summer, not to go against the "severe snobs".
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frostfern

frostfern

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I think most of us who wish for a cool summer do so because we want a cool summer, not to go against the "severe snobs".

 

At least rooting for a rare May snowfall is rooting for "weather".  If it's going to happen I'll take it.  But by June or later "cool" can't be anything but boring.  I know some people hate the feeling of humidity but that's just called "summer", just like feeling uncomfortably cold at times is called "winter".  Might as well listen to some snob who hates shoveling snow root for a mild snowless winter as soon as October comes around. 

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted

Looks like the GFS is finally finding its senses. Shows the low cutting off further west more in line with EURO.

 

Yea, the GFS likes trolling those who take it seriously.  Giving false hope to those who'd like to see a rare May snowfall and false dread to those who really don't want to see any more cold before next October.

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