nj2va Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm just waiting until they start doing boom/bust probabilities on the daily digit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harv_poor Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If you read some of the CWG comments on their blog earlier this morning, their readers (or at least some) are bitching about their negativity towards cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm scared of the "painful cold" predicted for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If you read some of the CWG comments on their blog earlier this morning, their readers (or at least some) are bitching about their negativity towards cold and snow. It's probably the same bellyachers from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 nice! Friday's digit: 5/10 - Quite cold, but less windy. Woohoo! Sunshine a plus. I'll bundle up and remind myself it’s a Friday. Camden, CWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm a bit surprised that a CWG a discussion issued at 2 pm doesn't mention 12 Z GFS and EURO and rests so much on the NAM when the event is 72 hours away. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/28/wintry-mess-remains-likely-sunday-night-monday-how-much-snow-still-a-wildcard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ennepe68 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The daily digit is kinda silly (especially when it's a "10"). And it does favor mildists and warmists. But if CWG is going to keep that feature, then maybe everyone (CWG regulars and contributors) ought to get a shot at it, ESPN-style. Then all ranges of weather preferences can be covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CWG will probably go with 1-15" of snow here. Then give themselves an A- for verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CWG will probably go with 1-15" of snow here. Then give themselves an A- for verifying. Come on now, that's not a fair assessment. They do very well with snowfall forecasts, especially with the insight of usedtobe, and if they have a wide range, it's always for a good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Come on now, that's not a fair assessment. They do very well with snowfall forecasts, especially with the insight of usedtobe, and if they have a wide range, it's always for a good reason. I'm poking fun...I really like the write-ups by CWG as they do a great job explaining the storm set-up to the mass public, without being too overly scientific which would go over most people's heads. I do think their 5-10" call for the KU was lame - its a large window for a forecast IMO and it was easy to come back later and give the forecast a B+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Only Dan can give a day like today a 7 because it is warm for 3 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm scared of the "painful cold" predicted for tonight."Update on the snow that almost nobody wants (first-call map and timeline)By Dan Stillman, Published: SATURDAY, MARCH 15, 2:55 PM ET" Maybe Dan saw this thread and did that just to annoy us, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 "Update on the snow that almost nobody wants (first-call map and timeline) By Dan Stillman, Published: SATURDAY, MARCH 15, 2:55 PM ET" Maybe Dan saw this thread and did that just to annoy us, lol This is what I said on FB The superfluous editorializing in the headline is not befitting of a serious media entity, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 C is very generous...why not just say "we busted"....I issued essentially the same forecast as CWG for DC proper (2-3"), and I measured 7.8" in a swampy heat island...that isn't a medicore or average forecast...It's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It was a pretty terrible forecast IMO. We were consistently lower than everyone else and didn't raise till it was pretty apparent we were going to bust low. Even then we didn't raise enough for perhaps the wrong reasons. I had plenty of input and it all sucked for the most part. I do think we were all generally very close to each other on thoughts though which makes it interesting. Some data analysis error or something maybe. Quite a few people here were in the same camp for whatever reason. I don't believe anyone had much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It was a pretty terrible forecast IMO. We were consistently lower than everyone else and didn't raise till it was pretty apparent we were going to bust low. Even then we didn't raise enough for perhaps the wrong reasons. I had plenty of input and it all sucked for the most part. I do think we were all generally very close to each other on thoughts though which makes it interesting. Some data analysis error or something maybe. Quite a few people here were in the same camp for whatever reason. I don't believe anyone had much confidence. I thought 2-4" yesterday morning and upped it to 3-6" (similar to what CWG did in the map I saw last night) when I saw surface temps cooperated. I didn't expect widespread 8-10" like LWX forecasted. I'd much rather you busted low than busted high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I thought 2-4" yesterday morning and upped it to 3-6" (similar to what CWG did in the map I saw last night) when I saw surface temps cooperated. I didn't expect widespread 8-10" like LWX forecasted. I'd much rather you busted low than busted high. I think we did lean a little too much toward MOS but that's not really the climo argument people are noting. I think people think of climo as the avg high and low of the day etc and that's it. The bounds for March or the winter as a whole matter. This was a big event in any month and almost unheard of in March. But it's also the evolution and the precip patterns on models etc. People might want to conclude some model totally nailed it and we should have just paid closer attention to it but I think that's somewhat dishonest or just misinformed. We should probably save the soundings etc and remember it as a case study going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Although CWG busted badly here the reasons for hedging low made sense....can't get them all right...appreciate the analysis and thought CWG puts into DC weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think we did lean a little too much toward MOS but that's not really the climo argument people are noting. I think people think of climo as the avg high and low of the day etc and that's it. The bounds for March or the winter as a whole matter. This was a big event in any month and almost unheard of in March. But it's also the evolution and the precip patterns on models etc. People might want to conclude some model totally nailed it and we should have just paid closer attention to it but I think that's somewhat dishonest or just misinformed. We should probably save the soundings etc and remember it as a case study going forward. Yeah, I think MOS, especially in anomalous air masses (my favorite word of the day apparently), has been too high this winter. I honestly never paid much attention to MOS until this season when I learned from you how overdone raw model temps have been, so I've been paying much better attention to it; I can't comment how it did last winter. For me, I think the learning point I've taken away from this is to look at the players on the field as a whole (in this case, overnight precip, a relatively strong H in a good spot, and a good burst of QPF); I think I was overall too bearish because of busts in the past and climo. Regarding your comment on the models, I do think that we tend to put too much stock in the Euro and seem to live and die by every run...its a great model but sometimes its the end all be all around here. We'll probably look to the NAM to nail the next storm since it did well on this one...I think that's what many people (and me included) seem to do...we find a hot model that nailed a recent storm and look for it to do well on the next one...even if the pattern is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I do think with the melting going on that by the end of the day CWGs original forecast will be closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I do think with the melting going on that by the end of the day CWGs original forecast will be closer We were quite right that roads would improve markedly once the sun came up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I had no qualms with a 2-4"/3-6" forecast for this event given how much could have gone wrong, i.e. dry slot, smaller flake size, less stickage earlier on with the warm ground, etc., etc. I was surprised our blended ensemble output at WPC had consistently given us some robust higher-end numbers. This was a case when it ended up being a very good starting point in terms of accumulations, though for the reasons I mentioned above, no doubt forecasters (myself included) would have been tempted to lower those amounts. Had this event happened 12 hours earlier or later this time of year, you'd have to figure accumulations would have been cut in half. We shouldn't be kicking ourselves about the forecast...it was well worth it! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I had no qualms with a 2-4"/3-6" forecast for this event given how much could have gone wrong, i.e. dry slot, smaller flake size, less stickage earlier on with the warm ground, etc., etc. I was surprised our blended ensemble output at WPC had consistently given us some robust higher-end numbers. This was a case when it ended up being a very good starting point in terms of accumulations, though for the reasons I mentioned above, no doubt forecasters (myself included) would have been tempted to lower those amounts. Had this event happened 12 hours earlier or later this time of year, you'd have to figure accumulations would have been cut in half. We shouldn't be kicking ourselves about the forecast...it was well worth it! :-) WPC was bullish on this from a long lead-time. I was surprised how bullish. And you nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 WPC was bullish on this from a long lead-time. I was surprised how bullish. And you nailed it. The winter weather forecasters were consistent for the most part, which is always nice to see. In an ideal world, you'd like to see the forecast trend in the right direction from 3 days out to 12-24 hours out. I know that's what NHC strives to do with their track forecast; if they went off an individual model run or ensemble of just a few models, the track forecast would bounce around all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 An infuriating long range forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I had no qualms with a 2-4"/3-6" forecast for this event given how much could have gone wrong, i.e. dry slot, smaller flake size, less stickage earlier on with the warm ground, etc., etc. I was surprised our blended ensemble output at WPC had consistently given us some robust higher-end numbers. This was a case when it ended up being a very good starting point in terms of accumulations, though for the reasons I mentioned above, no doubt forecasters (myself included) would have been tempted to lower those amounts. Had this event happened 12 hours earlier or later this time of year, you'd have to figure accumulations would have been cut in half. We shouldn't be kicking ourselves about the forecast...it was well worth it! :-) It was as perfect of a setup for Late March that one could possibly expect especially for DC. If it were a nor'easter we would have had more Ptype issues with the ra/sn line especially like last year with the Miller B on March 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 An infuriating long range forecast There was some questioning of that title in the comments section, and I'm sure from members of this board. I would love the anomalous cold snaps and snowstorms to continue well in April. In the general public and even a chunk of weather-hobbyists, though, something about today's storm sent them over the edge. There was something very different between the reactions among my coworkers and friend circle between the March 3rd storm and this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We've had probably 90% OMG make this **** stop or ****ing die winter comments on social media over the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We've had probably 90% OMG make this **** stop or ****ing die winter comments on social media over the past week or so. As far as I was concerned as a high school student, 95/96 was sad from mid-March through April. There were more chances that the DC area missed out on. That we had a Winter Storm Warning for April 9th just indicated how spoiled snow weenies were during the season. I expected the day off on 4/9-- NWS had 4-8" as the forecast under the Winter Storm Warning while Bob Ryan had trimmed it down to 2-5" citing warm temps before the thump. Of course, the low didn't bomb out until further northeast to slam Atlantic City with 8". A teenage snow weenie would want the season to last forever...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We've had probably 90% OMG make this **** stop or ****ing die winter comments on social media over the past week or so. warm lovers are lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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