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First 80 Degree Readings Of Spring This Week


bluewave

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...IL-NJ...   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND   N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THROUGH PERIOD.  ACTIVITY N OF FRONT WILL   POSE RISK OF OCNL HAIL...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS NEAR FRONT...AND A   TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL   WINDS IN ADJACENT WARM SECTOR KEEPS HODOGRAPH SIZE LIMITED...EXCEPT   IN VERY NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR...THOUGH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR   MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUPPORT OF TSTM ORGANIZATION.  60S SFC   DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING   AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF MOST PERSISTENT INSOLATION.      ..EDWARDS.. 04/09/2013
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Just a torch. It's amazing how we struggle to generate -10 or lower departures but can easily string up double that or more for days in a row like nothing.

Global Warming FTL, looks like more 80s or higher next week as well on the gfs.

If its a global warming day here then what is it in the Midwest today? Global cooling?

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Is it really that easy to set record highs? It's a miracle to pull of record lows but record highs get made at the drop of a hat. Is this setup really that impressive?

 

The Pacific ridge NE Of Hawaii and the strong SE ridge is a typical one for warmth here. We just don't 

normally see this pattern in April with a 300 meter+ west based block to the north. Notice how the last 

12 years with the first April 80 don't have the block to the north.

 

 

Last 12 composite

 

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If its a global warming day here then what is it in the Midwest today? Global cooling?

Negative anomalies are either not as strong as or are outnumbered by positive anomalies throughout the globe. THAT is global warming; not just above average here and below average there like we currently have in the US.

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Negative anomalies are either not as strong as or are outnumbered by positive anomalies throughout the globe. THAT is global warming; not just above average here and below average there like we currently have in the US.

Interestingly, Rapid City's daily snowfall records seem to increase through the month of April.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/climate/krap/extremes/apr.pdf

 

e.g. their snowstorm right now isn't THAT abnormal.

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Negative anomalies are either not as strong as or are outnumbered by positive anomalies throughout the globe. THAT is global warming; not just above average here and below average there like we currently have in the US.

Exactly, also we consistently over perform in even weaker ridges, this ridge is not record breaking (pretty typical really) even Mt. Holly pointed out its about a +1 deviation and that temps were much warmer than they should have been.

If the ridge was a bit stronger, we'd be in the 90s.

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Really?

How about the record Europe cold where they saw their coldest start to spring in 100+ years?

There will always be some cold somewhere, in fact one of the effects of Global Warming is extremes, we went from a record breaking negative AO and a colder March to record heat shortly after.

Even when everyone was saying there's a mid April warmup coming, I certainly didn't think we would see multiple days in the 80s.

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I'm very, very, skeptical of this new theory. Before the cold winters came along, many climate scientists forecasted for warmer winters. Now that observations show exactly the opposite, they have to figure out another hypothesis.

 

 

“Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.” ~ Stefan Rahmstorf

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There will always be some cold somewhere, in fact one of the effects of Global Warming is extremes, we went from a record breaking negative AO and a colder March to record heat shortly after.

Even when everyone was saying there's a mid April warmup coming, I certainly didn't think we would see multiple days in the 80s.

 

I agree that the averages should generally increase with a warmer world. Blaming a particular warm-up on Global Warming is pseudoscience though. Global Warming should actually result in less extremes, with the temperature differential between the poles and the tropics decreasing.

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I agree that the averages should generally increase with a warmer world. Blaming a particular warm-up on Global Warming is pseudoscience though. Global Warming should actually result in less extremes, with the temperature differential between the poles and the tropics decreasing.

I agree about blaming a particular warm up, I was more or less referring to the grand scheme of things.

As far as extremes go, there are numerous factors than tropics and pole temperature differences. Perhaps eventually if things warm up substantially that we will see less extremes but right now it's causing an imbalance.

The oceans are key and putting more heat and energy into the ocean just spells trouble, warming the arctic regions is what is likely responsible for the record breaking blocking episodes of the past few years.

The topic of global warming obviously has a vast area of topics and hypothesis/theories so I don't want to get into all of that, but I don't think things would have been as warm as today 50 years ago with a similar setup.

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The topic of global warming obviously has a vast area of topics and hypothesis/theories so I don't want to get into all of that, but I don't think things would have been as warm as today 50 years ago with a similar setup.

 

I can agree with this.

 

There's a reason why Accumulated Cyclonic Energy on a Global Basis is at record low levels right now. There are other factors to consider when looking at storminess other than the Sea Surface Temperature. Instability and Wind Shear are two large factors equally as important as Sea Surface Temperature.

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