MJO812 Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 There is no snow anywhere near the coast. Just some waves along the frontal bounday and the a coastal storm at day 10. With 850s below 0, that looks like slop near the coast with snow in New England.Euro is way different than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 There is no snow anywhere near the coast. Just some waves along the frontal bounday and the a coastal storm at day 10. It shows snow in interior SE NY and NW NJ around 204-210 hours. NYC and surrounding suburbs would probably be a nasty cold rain with temps in the mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The backdoor front might be a killer for us on LI. I can see us being trapped in cool and damp stuff. The GFS has the backdoor front sitting over us for about two days before it finally advances north. Once the front lifts, another problem we face is even more onshore flow with surface winds out of the SSW. 850's aproach +17°C before the main front comes through. Meteograms show LI under presistent cloud cover as well. However, in the late run, the GFS has us really warming back up with 2mT's, even on LI, going above 80°F, even having dew points going into the upper 60's, low 70's. I don't think many areas on LI and into CT will be warm for quite some time. We need a west or WSW wind to capitalize on the warmth that develops over NJ or interior NY state, and that looks to be lacking for the next 8 days or more. And obviously, whatever backdoor front we get ensures raw, cloudy conditions and a marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 With 850s below 0, that looks like slop near the coast with snow in New England.Euro is way different than the other models. The Accuweather Pro maps do indeed have some snow for the Suburbs of New York City. Quite a bit of snow into NW NJ from the waves of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 I don't think many areas on LI and into CT will be warm for quite some time. We need a west or WSW wind to capitalize on the warmth that develops over NJ or interior NY state, and that looks to be lacking for the next 8 days or more. And obviously, whatever backdoor front we get ensures raw, cloudy conditions and a marine layer. Our best hope here would be a daytime cold front passage with the winds blowing offshore while the 850's are still warm and enough sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 There is no snow anywhere near the coast. Just some waves along the frontal bounday and the a coastal storm at day 10. Its close at hour 180 for some slop for the coast. 850 temps are -3 and the surface temps on Accu are 35-36 degrees with moderate precip. 925 0c line is also in south Jersey. Definitely snow for the northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 the euro has handled the frontal waves differently each run so i wouldn't put much stock on a single solution yet. over the past few warm seasons i noticed it has a tendency to bomb out systems over SE canada past day 5 and cool us off too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The one thing you can take from the 12z Euro is that it has taken a major scale back on the warmup. Other than getting into the 60's briefly next Tuesday it's mostly 40's and 50's with a major cool off for the end of the week along with the interior snow threat on day 10. FWIW the 12z GGEM is super amped up and has a flooding rain storm from hours 210 that is still ongoing at hr 240. SW flow event from a cutter followed by a coatal wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is warmer and stronger with the ridge for later next week, than the op Euro. The Euro is likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 The one thing you can take from the 12z Euro is that it has taken a major scale back on the warmup. Other than getting into the 60's briefly next Tuesday it's mostly 40's and 50's It's got upper 50's on Sunday, 60's on Monday and Tuesday. It's also an outlier amongst its ensembles with the handling of the frontal wave mid-week. The thing I am more concerned about is that we will have a good warmup to start Sun-Mon and Tue but then will punt the potentially event warmer days Wed-Thu as the high slips offshore. You can see the backdoor front signal on the 12z GFS with the marine flow and cooler temperatures even up to 850mb http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 With the system now progged to miss our area to the south and east on Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see overperforming high temperatures on northwest winds and 850 temperatures around 1-2 C during peak heating. You can see the NAM starting to pick up on this potential with temperatures near 60 in NE NJ. They get to 60+ the next frame over much of Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The individual nuances and shortwaves along the warm front will determine how long it takes to blow through...but the DGEX insists that it does so by early to mid next week with big results afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Canadian has 22 C high temperatures (72 F) west of NYC from Monday through Thursday of next week. Visual: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The GFS is beautiful for those whom want warm weather. Pumps up two very strong ridges into the east. Easily into the 70s into our region if the winds are favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The GFS is beautiful for those whom want warm weather. Pumps up two very strong ridges into the east. Easily into the 70s into our region if the winds are favorable. Looks like an awesome pattern for warm weather-notice the lack of troughiness over Quebec/Newfoundland as well as deep southerly flow in the ridge. It's not great for the immediate coast since it would probably be a S or SSW kind of wind but it would be an impovement, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The GFS is sliding the ULL into the trough, which pumps up the heights. The Euro keeps the ULL much stronger, further east, and away from the trough, which flattens the height rises and keeps things colder. Until the Euro switches camps, I'm skeptical of the sustained warmth on Wednesday and on. Monday and Tuesday look like good days regardless, though; although Monday might be one of those early high days prior to onshore flow arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 We always trust the Euro with storm systems so I'm siding with it over the gfs. Don't get too excited if you're right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 We always trust the Euro with storm systems so I'm siding with it over the gfs. Don't get too excited if you're right near the coast. I wouldn't get too excited for warmth on the coast regardless. It's April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 This is the 12z GFS MOS for Central Park next week: KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/04/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11|FRI CLIMO N/X 39 59| 36 54| 42 63| 50 68| 52 69| 51 67| 54 71| 53 41 58 TMP 43 52| 38 47| 46 56| 53 60| 54 61| 53 60| 56 62| 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The Euro is pretty insistent on not splitting and elongating that ULL in Canada. The GFS, IMO, is being silly and elongating it and splitting it, despite the still pretty potent western Canadian block. Thus, it has energy sliding underneath the block, so the block isn't exerting as much influence on the storm diving southward. This prevents the storm from cutting off, allowing it to remain and open trough. Additionally, since there is energy underneath the block, its closer proximity to the storm, along with the storm being an open trough, make it easier for the energy to slide into the trough, which pumps up the heights for Wednesday and beyond, setting us up for a torch. The Euro keeps the ULL in Canada much stronger and as one dominant feature. It does not split it nor elongate it, so there is no energy cutting underneath the block. Thus, there is nothing between the block and the storm diving down south, which helps it to nearly cut off. Additionally, that means no energy slides into the trough, and instead the more potent ULL squashes the heights and halts warm front progression for Wednesday and on.I wrote an article explaining the model differences, how they start quite early (which would favor the Euro), and why I'm leaning towards the Euro. That being said, Monday looks like a decent day, especially away from the coast (coastal areas may be iffy), and Tuesday looks great. It's Wednesday and on that's troublesome. April 15 and on looks very warm, however. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/04/04/spring-or-not-to-spring/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 We always trust the Euro with storm systems so I'm siding with it over the gfs. Don't get too excited if you're right near the coast. Even if the Euro is right, Tuesday still looks like a great day, with temperatures near 60 for the immediate coast and perhaps even 70 or so inland. Monday might be about 5 degrees colder than Tuesday for all locations, but then the onshore flow could kick in for the afternoon, making the evening chilly relative to the warmer afternoon highs. Should still be a good day, though. Wednesday and on will be either very warm (GFS) or quite chilly again (Euro). As I've said before, I'm leaning towards the Euro. However, 4/15 and on almost definitely looks very warm, even for the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Euro and GFS continue to look world's apart with the evolution of the block, ULL in Canada, and resulting storm system. The Euro will continue to be quite chilly from Wednesday and on. Considering how early the difference start, I would be very wary of the GFS solution. As I have said before, though, regardless of the eventual outcome, Monday looks decent and Tuesday looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Now the Euro actually has Monday as the warmer day as opposed to Tuesday. This wouldn't be good for coastal regions, since Tuesday would have been the better day to capitalize on, since onshore flow should be a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Today's run of the Euro has the core of the PV in the same spot, but its orientation shifts eastward much more quickly, which makes its start of the cold be on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 From Typhoon Tip in the NE forums regarding the Euro : Anyway, look at the chart for D6, and tell me that doesn't look absurd? Seriously, Will, this run contains about a -6SD geopotentially anomaly inside region not much bigger than Alaska up N of here. I have no problem making it cold around here and undercutting the warm signal there, but THAT way..? Something doesn't look right there in terms of basic conservation of mass argument - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Monday is really warm on the Euro now...70 degrees in Western NJ (and 65 west of NYC) ... but we punt Tuesday-Thursday with the retreating/redeveloping warm front to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The GEFS also have a very strong signal for a pattern breakdown in the higher latitudes and a huge east coast ridge post Day 10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Monday is really warm on the Euro now...70 degrees in Western NJ (and 65 west of NYC) ... but we punt Tuesday-Thursday with the retreating/redeveloping warm front to our south. Monday looks exactly like Tuesday did in last night's run. Its difference in orientation of the "PV" makes things one day quicker on today's run. Friday through the weekend also looks awful on today's Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The GEFS also have a very strong signal for a pattern breakdown in the higher latitudes and a huge east coast ridge post Day 10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f300.gif Quick winter to summer transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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