First 80 Degree Readings Of Spring This Week

[Stormlover74]

Thanks. I thought it was much further back. They all count. Last June was .1 below normal in CPK but above normal at our other 3 official stations

most of 2009 was below normal...before that however I don't know the last 3 month stretch

[SnoSki14]

I think April 10 through most of the month will be above normal with an occasional cooler day or two or three, then I actually believe we might see cooler than normal by May.

Think another -ao comes at end of April to early May.

It will be interesting to see what the Friday storm does as a phase could potentially offset or at least diminish the warmth post April 10 with a gradient pattern and backdoor fronts.

[TWCCraig]

Bad, bad meteorology sir. This is taught during the first several lectures in dynamics (PSU Meteo 421). As long as a temperature gradient exists between sea and land....just sayin.

 

I've been studying the sea breeze here for years. On Saturday there was a huge difference between the land and sea. Places near the land were near 60 and the sea was in the lows 40's. Was there a sea breeze? No. Why? NW winds. If you read my post, if we get the high pressure to setup in the right place, a decent NW wind will counter-act the sea breeze we'll be fine. The stronger the NW wind, the less likely you'll have a sea breeze. I've seen it plenty times before, usually after a frontal pass.

[jm1220]

I've been studying the sea breeze here for years. On Saturday there was a huge difference between the land and sea. Places near the land were near 60 and the sea was in the lows 40's. Was there a sea breeze? No. Why? NW winds. If you read my post, if we get the high pressure to setup in the right place, a decent NW wind will counter-act the sea breeze we'll be fine. The stronger the NW wind, the less likely you'll have a sea breeze. I've seen it plenty times before, usually after a frontal pass.

It takes a strong and well mixed westerly flow though to counteract the pressure gradient that develops between the cold ocean and warm land. The cold ocean essentially acts as a high pressure, since the cold air is denser than the warm air over land. That's why sea breezes very frequently develop here, even if later in the day from a pre-existing westerly flow.

[TWCCraig]

It takes a strong and well mixed westerly flow though to counteract the pressure gradient that develops between the cold ocean and warm land. The cold ocean essentially acts as a high pressure, since the cold air is denser than the warm air over land. That's why sea breezes very frequently develop here, even if later in the day from a pre-existing westerly flow.

 

I already know this, thank you.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I already know this, thank you.

 

You are also several miles inland which in marginal seas breeze events can be all the difference in the world. Sea breezes can be as localized as a couple hundred feet. (I often watch the flags on the boardwalk at Jones Beach blow from the NW while on the shore itself the wind is South)  This spring will have some nasty cold seas breeze action for the immediate coast. With water temps still in the high 30's low 40's in April as soon as we get into a milder flow the seas breeze will start to rock. Moving forward as the sun inclination increases the land will heat quicker and quicker and we will see some extreme temperature differences between say EWR and JFK much more so then the last few springs.

[bluewave]

You are also several miles inland which in marginal seas breeze events can be all the difference in the world. Sea breezes can be as localized as a couple hundred feet. (I often watch the flags on the boardwalk at Jones Beach blow from the NW while on the shore itself the wind is South)  This spring will have some nasty cold seas breeze action for the immediate coast. With water temps still in the high 30's low 40's in April as soon as we get into a milder flow the seas breeze will start to rock. Moving forward as the sun inclination increases the land will heat quicker and quicker and we will see some extreme temperature differences between say EWR and JFK much more so then the last few springs.

 

The Gilgo Wunderground site does a great job showing those rapid temperature changes with the sea breeze.

I have also seen those localized sea breezes in Long Beach with an onshore flow near the lifeguard flags

and a boardwalk offshore flow. 

 

Gilgo Beach 4-27-07

 

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYGILGO1&year=2007&month=4&day=21

 

[Allsnow]

Record low tied at lga last night 34

[earthlight]

Early next week looks pretty warm now on the 18z GFS.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f168.gif

[nzucker]

High was 46.2F after a low of 29.3F, so about -10F departure on the day. Should get into the mid 20s night with the colder 850s over the region and slackening winds. 

 

Definitely felt quite wintry this afternoon with the trees still entirely bare and most of the grass still brown. With temperatures already down to 38F, it seems more like early March than early April. Spring will eventually win out, but we deal with more chilly weather Friday and potentially Monday/Tuesday depending on what that backdoor front does. 

[snywx]

High was 46.2F after a low of 29.3F, so about -10F departure on the day. Should get into the mid 20s night with the colder 850s over the region and slackening winds. 

 

Definitely felt quite wintry this afternoon with the trees still entirely bare and most of the grass still brown. With temperatures already down to 38F, it seems more like early March than early April. Spring will eventually win out, but we deal with more chilly weather Friday and potentially Monday/Tuesday depending on what that backdoor front does. 

 

38.4 for a high here after a low of 25..  

 

Currently 32... Gonna be another chilly night up here..

[bluewave]

The DGEX is similar to the Euro in bringing the first push of warmer spring temperatures next week.

 

[earthlight]

The DGEX is similar to the Euro in bringing the first push of warmer spring temperatures next week.

 

The potential is there for us to get really warm...possibly warmer than the DGEX shows with 12+ H85 temperatures. But notice how that 70+ degree day comes way ahead of the actual system and strongest SW flow. This is pretty cool because it's very typical for the backdoor front to get hung up as the system approaches. So if you go to the next day on the DGEX you can see the retreating warm front makes it all the way to NYC. Southern New England is socked in with onshore flow and low clouds despite a monster ridge aloft.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f180.gif

[Weathergun]

Day 6 (Next Tues) on the 6z GEFS has a  significant warm surge as well:

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Just a question but should we use models like the nam, dgex, and etc that has been so bad over the winter?

[Weathergun]

Big ridge on top of us between 144-168hrs, on both GEFS and Euro ensembles. Not fantasy range anymore. This supports a WSW flow over us:

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Just a question but should we use models like the nam, dgex, and etc that has been so bad over the winter?

 

The trick to using the DGEX is only when it is similar the the Euro like it was this morning. It's temperature fields

are only realistic when it matches the Euro H500 and surface pattern.

[earthlight]

Just a question but should we use models like the nam, dgex, and etc that has been so bad over the winter?

I use the DGEX to visualize what the temperatures/etc could look like if the h5 depiction were to verify..and when the Euro is in general agreement.

[Weathergun]

The MJO in just entering phase 3 supports a strong ridge near the East coast, in a about week:

 

 

[bluewave]

The potential is there for us to get really warm...possibly warmer than the DGEX shows with 12+ H85 temperatures. But notice how that 70+ degree day comes way ahead of the actual system and strongest SW flow. This is pretty cool because it's very typical for the backdoor front to get hung up as the system approaches. So if you go to the next day on the DGEX you can see the retreating warm front makes it all the way to NYC. Southern New England is socked in with onshore flow and low clouds despite a monster ridge aloft.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f180.gif

 

Yeah, the big reversal of the AO is  allowing the SE Ridge to build in conjunction with the ridge north of Hawaii.

 

[uncle W]

no doubt we will see at least one warm day next week but does the warmth last?...the ao is near -3 again and still dropping...I found eight years with an ao -3.000 or lower from 4/1 to 5/1...

1966....-4.334

1996....-4.106

1987....-3.974

1979....-3.575

1989....-3.533

1958....-3.096

1995....-3.081

1960....-3.035

a mixed bag of analogs for the long range...some early heat came with some...1995 and 1966 were down right brutal...1966 had a cold May but hot summer...1996 had a hot May and cool summer...

[Weathergun]

I think we may be dealing with slow-moving warm front, early next week, if there are waves running along it. But once the ridge builds, it's going to be harder for that front retreat as a strong backdoor cold front. Much of the cold air aloft, gets washed away. I think it's a bigger issue for New England and perhaps LI.

[Weathergun]

The 12z Ukmet and Ggem have a strong ridge by 144hr. No bdcf signal either.

[TWCCraig]

The backdoor front might be a killer for us on LI. I can see us being trapped in cool and damp stuff. The GFS has the backdoor front sitting over us for about two days before it finally advances north. Once the front lifts, another problem we face is even more onshore flow with surface winds out of the SSW. 850's aproach +17°C before the main front comes through. Meteograms show LI under presistent cloud cover as well. However, in the late run, the GFS has us really warming back up with 2mT's, even on LI, going above 80°F, even having dew points going into the upper 60's, low 70's.

[ag3]

The 12z Ukmet and Ggem have a strong ridge by 144hr. No bdcf signal either.

 

 

And the 12z euro says no way.

[MJO812]

Euro says what spring? Terrible for people who want warmer weather. It even shows sone snow down to the coast.

[JSantanaNYC]

For those hoping for warmer weather.. dont look at the 12z euro. It looks like it thinks we are still in february.

[bluewave]

The Euro is front loaded with the warmth with possible 70's Monday into Tuesday.

Looks like 70 gets to around I-78 on Monday and then parts of New England 

Tuesday ahead of the front. Last night the Euro got the 70's up to Albany.

[KEITH L.I]

For those hoping for warmer weather.. dont look at the 12z euro. It looks like it thinks we are still in february.

Euro shows temps in the 50's..February?

[Weathergun]

Euro says what spring? Terrible for people who want warmer weather. It even shows sone snow down to the coast.

 

There is no snow anywhere near the coast. Just some waves along the frontal bounday and the a coastal storm at day 10.