Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It may not be as cold as one would think but considering a year ago was +8 or higher, the difference looks and feels very dramatic. The difference in the growing season is drastically different compared to last year when the grass was completely green with widespread blossoming ongoing. This year feels quite barren and Saturday will likely be the better and possibly warmer day of the weekend. Monday could actually be in the low 60s but could rapidly drop through the 30s overnight. I have a feeling Sunday might get stuck in the 40s if clouds and moisture moves in earlier in the day. And yes a 10 degree turnaround from last March to this year is quite dramatic but I don't think we'll have as noticeable a difference with regards to grass, trees, and flowers etc. Last year and in 2010 everything bloomed a full 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal. This year might be slightly later than normal but probably not much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I have a feeling Sunday might get stuck in the 40s if clouds and moisture moves in earlier in the day. And yes a 10 degree turnaround from last March to this year is quite dramatic but I don't think we'll have as noticeable a difference with regards to grass, trees, and flowers etc. Last year and in 2010 everything bloomed a full 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal. This year might be slightly later than normal but probably not much more than that. Well as for the growing season, I was comparing it to last year rather than a normal season. I think at most we could be a week delayed depending on how chilly things get next week and pending any major warm ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 Well as for the growing season, I was comparing it to last year rather than a normal season. I think at most we could be a week delayed depending on how chilly things get next week and pending any major warm ups. Agree. Compared to the last 3 March's, it's two different worlds, but compared to normal, we're maybe a week behind or so. Generally first cut is 2nd week of April with the green-up occurring by the beginning of April. Right now grass is mainly brown but starting to green in patches. First cut will be way later than last year's March 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2013 Author Share Posted March 29, 2013 The models finally build the ridge eastward for the second week of April with warmer spring temperatures after a cold start to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 6z GEFS building a East Ridge for the second week of April as week, as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 CFSv2 doesn't ridge us but it does ridge the west. By week 4 we have a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 By week 4 many think the heat will arrive with almost summerlike temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 As we often see with a turn to colder regimes, be aware that modelling might be rushing the idea of sustained spring warmth. I'd be cautious to forecast anything more than 1-2 days of above normal temps through the first couple weeks of April w/ the AO dipping back to around -2 SD and continued NAO blocking for a little while longer. Right now I think 4/10-15 is a good time frame for the beginning of the "transition" period when we'll see more shots of warmth followed by FROPA's, but sustained spring may not arrive until 4/15-20 or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 the period between 4/8 and 4/12 should be the first sustained period above normal of the spring. First 70 perhaps even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Thanks for those stats. We really got used to 70 degree days in March during recent years. People had better get used to colder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 I made a list of the first spring 70 degree days in NYC going back to 1980. 2007....3-14 January 6, 2007 doesn't count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 I just planted the start of my garden: arugula, lettuce, spinach and radishes. Those crops can handle the cold snap that is coming Tuesday and Wednesday. A certain sign of spring for me is clearing out the beds and planting the first seeds. Very excited for lots of fresh, organic produce this warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 I just planted the start of my garden: arugula, lettuce, spinach and radishes. Those crops can handle the cold snap that is coming Tuesday and Wednesday. A certain sign of spring for me is clearing out the beds and planting the first seeds. Very excited for lots of fresh, organic produce this warm season. Good stuff. I always look forward to starting the garden with the cool weather vegetables. Tomorrow I'm gonna go out there and plant peas and radishes. Next week I'll plant lettuce and broccoli. I love winter, but I'm done with it now. Time for warmer weather for spring activites like gardening and baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 January 6, 2007 doesn't count? He mentioned 'first spring' 70 degree days, which seems to mean first days of the meteorological spring season; meaning the winter readings don't count in his context. Makes sense because we are trying to correlate different early spring patterns with one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 The 0z/30 Euro control run showing low 80s for inland spots on April 11th. 75-80F for NYC at least. This is ahead of a cold front. The day before we are 65F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 The 0z/30 Euro control run showing low 80s for inland spots on April 11th. 75-80F for NYC at least. This is ahead of a cold front. The day before we are 65F+ The warmth will soon be upon us as well as the inevitable complaints about the heat and how winter can't get here fast enough. The first month of 70s is fine, but then we see 80s and 90s and finally we add in the humidity and then we shall see how much we love seeing a big ridge over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 The warmth will soon be upon us as well as the inevitable complaints about the heat and how winter can't get here fast enough. The first month of 70s is fine, but then we see 80s and 90s and finally we add in the humidity and then we shall see how much we love seeing a big ridge over us. Not too many "big ridges" during years such as 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Latest guidance continues to uild heights the week of 4/8 with much warmer temps. It'll b interesting to track the first 70s, perhaps 80s for some? On a side note anyone attending wrestlemania sun 4/7 - euro and latest gfs look dry and near to above normal temps-wise. I have the great 'pleasure' of taking the nephews and nieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Not too many "big ridges" during years such as 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2009.and the plains looked nothing like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 The euro ens mean has an eastern ridge through 360 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Latest CFS weeklies are very warm, with ridge over the Eastern CONUS for weeks 3 and 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Warmth will arrive probably around April 9-10 and beyond but for those living on the immediate coast, you could easily end up much colder than inland areas as the waters are very chilly. I'm not sure if the waters are colder at this time compared to last though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 last year it was 88 on 4/16...83 on 4/26/2011...92 on 4/7/2010...if we get into a warm pattern it will be light winter to summer in a week or two...March was almost eleven degrees colder on average this year over last...I would think water temps off the coast are colder than last year...I'm just guessing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 The gfs is really close to a phase, it eventually does so later and explodes the storm. It's def something to keep an eye on even if it won't be snow, could mean a lot of rain and wind though. NAO flipping from negative to positive is usually a coastal storm signal and we've seen big storm prior to major pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Warmth will arrive probably around April 9-10 and beyond but for those living on the immediate coast, you could easily end up much colder than inland areas as the waters are very chilly. I'm not sure if the waters are colder at this time compared to last though. Wouldn't worry so much. Waters are colder than last year by about 5F. The air over the ocean should warm up a few days into the warm period, SST's may be cold still, but as long as the air temps over the waters are warm, I wouldn't worry about the sea breeze. It all depends on the wind direction. A high to our west, or northwest can stop the sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 We truly may go from winter to summer at least for a period this year. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that we bake by April standards in the 15th-30th period. There will be one final pulse of -AO/NAO over the next several days, producing our stretch of 40s and overnight freezes through late week. One last chance, albeit a low chance right now, for snowfall w/ the Fri-Sat coastal storm. Interior Northeast has an advantage as does NNE due to the reasons that have been thoroughly discussed here over the past couple days (lack of nern stream interaction / phasing, etc).Beyond April 8th, we'll begin to see a W-E gradient pattern evolving w/ probably a lot of T-storm threats for the SE US and warm fronts getting stuck near NJ. However, the signals are turning quite strong for a total collapse and reversal of the high lat blocking into a solidly +NAO/AO regime. Some data suggests that very low height anomalies will begin to develop in the Arctic region, and at this time of year, that's an absolute torch signal, especially with a -PNA/-PDO background influencer as well. AO values going from -5 SD to maybe +2 SD on the dailies at least by April 20th.Basically, I'm pulling the trigger on a sustained warm pattern (above avg mean temps) initiating sometime around the 4/12-4/15 period, going through the end of the month, and it will likely be strong enough to erase and reverse the early April cold anomalies. The end of the tunnel is coming and I think this is real folks.We also have model support. ECMWF weeklies indicate the block breakdown, CFS V2 signalling the torch as well, and the GFS ensembles have a strong +AO post D8 or so. Not to mention analog and statistical support is there. We've run this block as long as we can take it really - got it going around Feb 10th, so we'll be running a -AO about 60 days through April 10th. Most blocks breakdown in the 40-60 day time frame, and only the most severe persist to 60-65 days.So it's not a matter of IF, the warmth is coming, though I am still debating whether it's 4/10-15 period or maybe holds off until 4/15-20, but I definitely think the last 1/3 is torch at minimum, probably above normal starting mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Bad, bad meteorology sir. This is taught during the first several lectures in dynamics (PSU Meteo 421). As long as a temperature gradient exists between sea and land....just sayin. Wouldn't worry so much. Waters are colder than last year by about 5F. The air over the ocean should warm up a few days into the warm period, SST's may be cold still, but as long as the air temps over the waters are warm, I wouldn't worry about the sea breeze. It all depends on the wind direction. A high to our west, or northwest can stop the sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Hasn't the CFSv2 flipped by hundreds of meters in just 2 days, 29-31st. in our backyard? What factors (a surprise stratospheric warming/cooling perhaps) can an analog forecast system detect to make it change so much, so quickly and then totally alter the next 5 weeks from a below normal to an above normal cast? I mean the following----when I looked on the 29th. the next 30 days appeared headed for 'bn' temps. but today the motif for the same areas is for 'an' temps. How do you know it won't just flop back? I would wait for a week to determine if this is real. At any rate does anyone know the last time NYC had 3 below normal months in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Hasn't the CFSv2 flipped by hundreds of meters in just 2 days, 29-31st. in our backyard? What factors (a surprise stratospheric warming/cooling perhaps) can an analog forecast system detect to make it change so much, so quickly and then totally alter the next 5 weeks from a below normal to an above normal cast? I mean the following----when I looked on the 29th. the next 30 days appeared headed for 'bn' temps. but today the motif for the same areas is for 'an' temps. How do you know it won't just flop back? I would wait for a week to determine if this is real. At any rate does anyone know the last time NYC had 3 below normal months in a row? Dec'09-Feb'10 (though january was only. 1 below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Dec'09-Feb'10 (though january was only. 1 below) Dec'09-Feb'10 (though january was only. 1 below) Thanks. I thought it was much further back. They all count. Last June was .1 below normal in CPK but above normal at our other 3 official stations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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