bluewave Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 So far the general theme of the March pattern is turning out similar to March 1958 in NYC. Both months featured strong blocking with below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall. The high and low for the month to date is exactly the same at 57 and 27 degrees. The last 4 springs in NYC we recorded our first spring 70 degree reading in March 3-08-12 3-18-11 3-19-10 3-07-09 If the 1958 analog works out, then this would be the first time since 2003 that the first 70 degree reading of spring was delayed until mid-April. I made copies of the March and April 1958 weather data for NYC along with this month so far. March 1958 April 1958 March 2013 500 mb patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 1940 has the latest 70 degree day on record...May 5th...1883 was May 3rd and 1884 May 2nd... year..1st 70...1st 80... 1940...5/05.....5/07 1883...5/03.....5/08 1884...5/02.....5/02 some other years... 1966...4/25.....5/06 1965...4/12.....4/30 1970...4/09.....4/26 1975...4/19.....5/16 1980...4/10.....5/03 1982...4/16.....4/25 2003...4/15.....4/15 1950...1/26.....5/06 2007...1/06.....4/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 1940 has the latest 70 degree day on record...May 5th...1883 was May 3rd and 1884 May 2nd... year..1st 70...1st 80... 1940...5/05.....5/07 1883...5/03.....5/08 1884...5/02.....5/02 some other years... 1966...4/25.....5/06 1965...4/12.....4/30 1970...4/09.....4/26 1975...4/19.....5/16 1980...4/10.....5/03 1982...4/16.....4/25 2003...4/15.....4/15 1950...1/26.....5/06 2007...1/06.....4/23 Thanks for those stats. We really got used to 70 degree days in March during recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 18z gfs long range basically continues the blocking through the 1st week of April and holds off Spring for a long time. It might not be cold enough for snow but there's nothing pleasant about 40s and subfreezing lows in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The 18z gfs long range basically continues the blocking through the 1st week of April and holds off Spring for a long time. It might not be cold enough for snow but there's nothing pleasant about 40s and subfreezing lows in April. Reminds me of 2007 (April) just 2 weeks earlier. I do think there is some hope for a warmup between 4/1 and 4/6 perhaps its brief before more cool, maybe a couple of days. We'll see if the AO and NAO come out of the duldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The cool period in 2007 lasted from 4/4 - 4/20 and included the svere flooding noreaster byut was followed by a decent surge of warmth. NYC 4 42 40 -85 44 34 -106 42 31 -137 43 31 -138 41 30 -149 49 32 -1010 51 33 -911 50 36 -912 44 39 -1013 49 42 -614 56 40 -515 55 40 -516 48 38 -1017 51 42 -718 51 42 -719 61 45 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 I made a list of the first spring 70 degree days in NYC going back to 1980. 2012....3-8 2011....3-18 2010....3-19 2009....3-7 2008....4-10 2007....3-14 2006....3-10 2005....4-6 2004...3-27 2003...4-15* 2002...3-30 2001...4-9 2000...4-6 1999...3-18 1998...3-27 1997...4-7 1996...4-12 1995...3-15 1994...3-23 1993....4-19* 1992....4-10 1991...3-28 1990...3-13 1989...3-17 1988...3-24 1987...3-8 1986...3-19 1984...4-26* 1983...4-23* 1982....4-16* 1981....3-29 1980....4-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I made a list of the first spring 70 degree days in NYC going back to 1980. 2012....3-8 2011....3-18 2010....3-19 2009....3-7 2008....4-10 2007....3-14 2006....3-10 2005....4-6 2004...3-27 2003...4-15* 2002...3-30 2001...4-9 2000...4-6 1999...3-18 1998...3-27 1997...4-7 1996...4-12 1995...3-15 1994...3-23 1993....4-19* 1992....4-10 1991...3-28 1990...3-13 1989...3-17 1988...3-24 1987...3-8 1986...3-19 1984...4-26* 1983...4-23* 1982....4-16* 1981....3-29 1980....4-13 Interesting stats, what about the first 60-65F readings in spring as we have yet to hit that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I made a list of the first spring 70 degree days in NYC going back to 1980. 2012....3-8 2011....3-18 2010....3-19 2009....3-7 2008....4-10 2007....3-14 2006....3-10 2005....4-6 2004...3-27 2003...4-15* 2002...3-30 2001...4-9 2000...4-6 1999...3-18 1998...3-27 1997...4-7 1996...4-12 1995...3-15 1994...3-23 1993....4-19* 1992....4-10 1991...3-28 1990...3-13 1989...3-17 1988...3-24 1987...3-8 1986...3-19 1984...4-26* 1983...4-23* 1982....4-16* 1981....3-29 1980....4-13 I'll nit pick a little...2007 had a 70 in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'll nit pick a little...2007 had a 70 in January... I was only counting the first spring 70 from March to May, not years that it happened in winter. This way we get a better representation of the current spring temperature pattern. 2007 was really an odd winter with the early January record warmth followed by the cold February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I was only counting the first spring 70 from March to May, not years that it happened in winter. This way we get a better representation of the current spring temperature pattern. 2007 was really an odd winter with the early January record warmth followed by the cold February. it had a cold spell in April if my memory is correct...1998 went straight to the 80's on 3/27...Five days in a row after 2-5" of snow on this date...That was nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Interesting stats, what about the first 60-65F readings in spring as we have yet to hit that as well. it's been very rare for the first 60 degree reading of March through May to happen in April. We finally reached 60 degrees during the main analog year of 1958 on April 5th. Here are the April first 60 degree dates since 1970 4-5-01 4-3-84 4-3-80 4-8-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's been very rare for the first 60 degree reading of March through May to happen in April. We finally reached 60 degrees during the main analog year of 1958 on April 5th. Here are the April first 60 degree dates since 1970 4-5-01 4-3-84 4-3-80 4-8-70 As of now it looks like it might wait till April as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 it's been very rare for the first 60 degree reading of March through May to happen in April. We finally reached 60 degrees during the main analog year of 1958 on April 5th. Here are the April first 60 degree dates since 1970 4-5-01 4-3-84 4-3-80 4-8-70 1958 had a cold spell the second week of April with upper 20's for minimums...It also had a little snow for icying on top...58 had a cool spring and start to Summer...The March AO was very negative for those years...It helps holding back the torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 As of now it looks like it might wait till April as well. Yeah, there are no 60 degree readings in the forecasts for the rest of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 1957-58 went 141 days with a temperature below 60...the longest stretch since 1947-48 ............................................... 1957-58...11/14 to 4/5.....141 1947-48...11/08 to 3/16...128 1961-62...11/17 to 3/25...127 1977-78...11/17 to 3/23...125 1981-82...11/27 to 3/30...122 1969-70...12/11 to 4/8.....117 1963-64...11/29 to 3/25...116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 For perspective: Last 50 degree day at NYC: March 13th Last 60 degree day: January 31st Last 70 degree day: October 15th Last 80 degree day: September 14th Last 90 degree day: September 1st Last 100 degree day: July 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Thanks for those stats. We really got used to 70 degree days in March during recent years. January 31 was the only 60 degree day (61) the entire winter at KNYC (and at KJFK its been since Dec 3 that we have seen 60), that is INSANE. Has anything like that ever happened before? even in 1993-94 and 1995-96 it happened multiple times. No wonder it felt so warm in SF last week (it was 64 on Sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 January 31 was the only 60 degree day (61) the entire winter at KNYC (and at KJFK its been since Dec 3 that we have seen 60), that is INSANE. Has anything like that ever happened before? even in 1993-94 and 1995-96 it happened multiple times. No wonder it felt so warm in SF last week (it was 64 on Sunday) 1957-1958 was the only winter since 1950 that only reached 59 degrees and stayed below 60 in March. The other years without a March 60 degree reading made it to 60 or higher during the winter(DJF). Winter...Highest Temperature before no March 60 degree readings 2012-2013...62 2000-2001...62 1983-1984...63 1979-1980...60 1969-1970...60 1957-1958...59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 The latest CFSv2 weeklies, now have a Greenland -NAO into mid-April. But it's big flip from past runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Interesting and seemingly persistent pattern for cool into the east, overall. I do think that between trough amplification there might be a day to two that could get us to 70 prior to tax day. But we'll see. Perhaps the first shot at warmer 60s(+) might be between 4/5 and 4/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Looks like we'll be skipping Spring this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 there's always the possibility of a warm day or two in the next two weeks or so...But on the whole it looks cool...Around this time in 1921 it was 84 degrees...A cold front passed and the temp dropped to 26 the next morning...We are not going to see that...But if we get one day with a strong sw flow with sunny skies 70 isn't out of the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 First march since 2001 that we will not hit 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 First march since 2001 that we will not hit 60 The first 60 degree day after the other Marches with highs in the 50's: 4-5-01 4-3-84 4-3-80 4-8-70 4-5-58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 What are our departures so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It may come for those fortunate enough at the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It may come for those fortunate enough at the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 What are our departures so far this month. Not as cold as you might think. NB is about 1.8 below, EWR 2.2 below Looks like interior locations may still have a shot at getting to 60 before March is over while Easter is looking crappier by the minute SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Not as cold as you might think. NB is about 1.8 below, EWR 2.2 below Looks like interior locations may still have a shot at getting to 60 before March is over while Easter is looking crappier by the minute SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. It may not be as cold as one would think but considering a year ago was +8 or higher, the difference looks and feels very dramatic. The difference in the growing season is drastically different compared to last year when the grass was completely green with widespread blossoming ongoing. This year feels quite barren and Saturday will likely be the better and possibly warmer day of the weekend. Monday could actually be in the low 60s but could rapidly drop through the 30s overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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