ChescoWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This won't be a deal of snow changing back to rain - once it goes to snow (away from coast) it will stay snow I actually like the timing. Heavy precip is occuring before 8AM, so if places just N of Philly change to snow quick I think it would be hard to change back over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I shouldn't have to say this... but I'll remind you all we just looked at the NAM. Cold and wet bias has been its theme all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I shouldn't have to say this... but I'll remind you all we just looked at the NAM. Cold and wet bias has been its theme all season. But you have to. Every. Single. Run. At least around here folks get the bias.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I shouldn't have to say this... but I'll remind you all we just looked at the NAM. Cold and wet bias has been its theme all season. The theme has been a disaster. One run it shows 20 inches & the next 2 inches. Frankly it is troublesome that for US tax dollars this is what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Can't wait for the new NAM clown map to see if it increased my 10-12" from the 6z run! EDIT* It's in! Now 12-15" !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A very tough call, but I think if you look at Missouri and in particular, the St. Louis area, you get a pretty good preview of what to expect here tomorrow. That would mean basically snowy, but just wet in center city Philadelphia, a slushy inch or two in the NE part of the city and Mt. Airy. Would probably approach 4” to 6” through central Bucks and Montgomery counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 A very tough call, but I think if you look at Missouri and in particular, the St. Louis area, you get a pretty good preview of what to expect here tomorrow. That would mean basically snowy, but just wet in center city Philadelphia, a slushy inch or two in the NE part of the city and Mt. Airy. Would probably approach 4” to 6” through central Bucks and Montgomery counties. I'll point out that the models have generally been colder out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It would be amusing if the low ended up so tightly wound (which is possible as it bombs) that a relatively narrow stripe in S NJ gets big snows while most of the region gets coating-3... it wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Might be noteworthy that where the snow has just started in the mid Atlantic it's already sticking to roads and side walks. TWC also showed a shot of St.Louis where it was 50* yesterday and raining all day today, just changed over to snow and in about an hour ground is covered and the interstate they showed was already slushy. With light to moderate snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Might be noteworthy that where the snow has just started in the mid Atlantic it's already sticking to roads and side walks. TWC also showed a shot of St.Louis where it was 50* yesterday and raining all day today, just changed over to snow and in about an hour ground is covered and the interstate they showed was already slushy. With light to moderate snow at best. ST LOUIS INTL HVY SNOW 33 30 88 N17G24 29.62F VSB 1/4 WCI 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Uh yeah STL is +SN and they were down to 1/8th mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Also as far as STL... yesterday's 12Z GFS had the surface temps nailed pretty well there. So before you get your hopes too high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yea it definitely picked back up but when they panned out on that live shot it was NOT heavy snow. Regardless I still think it's sticking to surfaces quicker than people probably thought. Roanoke same thing via the Mid Atlantic forum. Not sure of rates there but temps were still a degree or two above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Snowfall on the 12z GFS from Instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Also as far as STL... yesterday's 12Z GFS had the surface temps nailed pretty well there. So before you get your hopes too high... No hope here in the LV 1-3 - all melts the next day move on winter is over- change the oil in lawnmower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 032413-12zGFS.jpg Snowfall on the 12z GFS from Instantweathermaps. 12z GFS has a nice mid-level track just to the south of area. Would be a foot of snow in phl in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This is the wettest GFS run for the area so far I am getting slightly optimistic was thinking strictly coating to 2" but now 2-4" not sounding half bad unless ecm dries up. Locally with the last storm falling midday roads became bad so it can happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here's a quick rundown of Mt Holly NWS chatter 1. very dynamical system 2. closed 500 mb low moving in 3. models trending wetter closer to coast, NAM may not be as silly as we thought. 4. Ratios will be low, heavy precip rates needed 5. Tony having lots of "fun" with this today on short term Of course I can't go into details about potential products issued untill after they are issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 After the DC fiasco a couple of weeks ago and just the trend of the winter overall I have a hard time believing we will see much of anything here in Delco. Not to mention it is almost April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Tombo land and just outside the city in elevation will get 6+. Southern nj might be in for a surprise if they can flip. Very interesting system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gfs has 1.00 to Ttn. Nam might not be that off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 very similar to the NAM on precip...but still warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 very similar to the NAM on precip...but still warmer Agree nam wet bulbs cnj to a heavy pasting tomorrow. 1-3 along 95 is good for now, but just outside in elevation going to be a diff story. Have to watch snj also tomorrow. This is def a Tombo storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here's a quick rundown of Mt Holly NWS chatter 1. very dynamical system 2. closed 500 mb low moving in 3. models trending wetter closer to coast, NAM may not be as silly as we thought. 4. Ratios will be low, heavy precip rates needed 5. Tony having lots of "fun" with this today on short term Of course I can't go into details about potential products issued untill after they are issued. thanks for the 5 rundown's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This system will have less marine influence than Mar 5 since storm develops offshore. Mar 5 had strong E winds.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Mt holly up snowfall amounts a little bit on there latest briefing. Goes on to say the possibility of 8+ in cnj and snj if banding happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Mt holly up snowfall amounts a little bit on there latest briefing. Goes on to say the possibility of 8+ in cnj and snj if banding happens. Link to the briefing? I can never seem to find it on their website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Link to the briefing? I can never seem to find it on their website... It's on there Facebook site. Sorry on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Link to the briefing? I can never seem to find it on their website... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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