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March 25th - 26th Potential Threat Discussion


goombatommy

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Yeah, it's actually a bit wetter than Philly in our neck of the woods. The CCB catches us for a few hours and looks to be a 3-6" hit per wondermaps snowfall. South east Jersey pretty much gets nailed 6-10" under that deform band. Even a 25 mile NW shift would likely double snowfall at least here per Euro. Not a bad run at all. It's literally one tick away from becoming a big deal.

Sounds like euro was more tucked into the coast, near miss with the deformation..AC see's 1.11" of precip..Philly .63"..

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Yeah, it's actually a bit wetter than Philly in our neck of the woods. The CCB catches us for a few hours and looks to be a 3-6" hit per wondermaps snowfall. South east Jersey pretty much gets nailed 6-10" under that deform band. Even a 25 mile NW shift would likely double snowfall at least here per Euro. Not a bad run at all. It's literally one tick away from becoming a big deal.

 

Wondermaps are overdone.  2M temps stay near 2C for you. 

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0Z guidance from the GFS, GEM and EC was actually pretty close with QPF, as follows:

 

~0.25" isohyet roughly along I-80.

~0.50" isohyet roughly between the NJ/PA turnpikes and I-78.

~0.75" isohyet roughly along the PA/MD border to I-295 to I-195.

 

Relative locations of bullseyes affect it after this point with the EC bullseye just off the southern Delaware coast, the GEM bullseye east of ACY and south of eastern LI, and the GFS bullseye near Dover.

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Latest Wxsim with 6z GFS and NAM mixfor NW Philly burbs above 650ft

Light snow arriving by 1am temp 34.9

Moderate Snow at 6am temp 31.4 - (1.0" accum)

Heavy Snow 9am temp 30.9 - (3.0")

Heavy Snow 12noon temp 31.2 (5.0")

Heavy Snow 3pm temp 31.6 (8.0")

Moderate Snow 6pm temp 31.3 (9")

Light Snow 9pm temp 31.2 (10.0")

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So beautiful out this morning, especially with the springtime sun angle and all. It's hard to believe we have another potential plowable snowfall coming up.

Don't worry about it. I follow road temps and that's it. All the people who said it wouldn't stick to the roads last time were mistaken. It'll stick to all surfaces and be plow able. You may see me tomorrow! Be careful going up 100, leave early if ya can, that hill backs up so far, all the Indian semi drivers stop on the hill lol

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Yep....the models trended just cold enough over yesterday to increase the accumulation....that said I agree to cut it but I would put your 60 % at low end and 40% at high end .....so I would say 4 to 6 which is right where my NWS point forecast is at this time

Cut WXsim's totals by 60% and Paul's model might verify for him. ;)
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