famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ~400 feet enough? if cold enough, where are we with possibilities? It helps but really, more is better. With more elevation, per the GFS, you could get 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ggem 978 mb off the coast of nj.. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg It has a rather tight precip shield like the EC depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The always south and east Ukie as about 15mm QPF for Philly and 10 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sounds like euro was more tucked into the coast, near miss with the deformation..AC see's 1.11" of precip..Philly .63".. Just checked out the euro on wunder ground, huge improvement .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah, it's actually a bit wetter than Philly in our neck of the woods. The CCB catches us for a few hours and looks to be a 3-6" hit per wondermaps snowfall. South east Jersey pretty much gets nailed 6-10" under that deform band. Even a 25 mile NW shift would likely double snowfall at least here per Euro. Not a bad run at all. It's literally one tick away from becoming a big deal. Sounds like euro was more tucked into the coast, near miss with the deformation..AC see's 1.11" of precip..Philly .63".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah, it's actually a bit wetter than Philly in our neck of the woods. The CCB catches us for a few hours and looks to be a 3-6" hit per wondermaps snowfall. South east Jersey pretty much gets nailed 6-10" under that deform band. Even a 25 mile NW shift would likely double snowfall at least here per Euro. Not a bad run at all. It's literally one tick away from becoming a big deal. Wondermaps are overdone. 2M temps stay near 2C for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 6z nam less robust on QPF...snowfall totals much, much lower as a result. (shocker). Philly goes from 12" at 0z, 8" at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 One thing of import I note about the 6Z NAM is that, at least back home, its 2M temps are the warmest I think I've seen. Never down to 32, always 33 or 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0Z guidance from the GFS, GEM and EC was actually pretty close with QPF, as follows: ~0.25" isohyet roughly along I-80. ~0.50" isohyet roughly between the NJ/PA turnpikes and I-78. ~0.75" isohyet roughly along the PA/MD border to I-295 to I-195. Relative locations of bullseyes affect it after this point with the EC bullseye just off the southern Delaware coast, the GEM bullseye east of ACY and south of eastern LI, and the GFS bullseye near Dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Still on board for 1-3 above the Fall Line with lollis to 4, coating-1 along and east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Still on board for 1-3 above the Fall Line with lollis to 4, coating-1 along and east of it. Mt. Holly forecast... looks like they have ~5" ABE, RDG, ~3" TTN, PHL, ~2.5" ILG, ~1" ACY, DOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 This model is just f******* ridiculous right now. Complete garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Can't argue with the Mt. Holly map except to tighten the gradient some near the fall line. Would be biggest snow of year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think just outside Phl into some elevation has the best chance of 6+. The best forcing is around that area. Could be a narrow strip. South jersey need to watch also if they can flip early enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I still like coating-2 for TTN... BL looks horrid and the NAM trended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So beautiful out this morning, especially with the springtime sun angle and all. It's hard to believe we have another potential plowable snowfall coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Timing is important. Without good elevation best chance of accumulation is before 9AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 6z GFS and NAM mixfor NW Philly burbs above 650ft Light snow arriving by 1am temp 34.9 Moderate Snow at 6am temp 31.4 - (1.0" accum) Heavy Snow 9am temp 30.9 - (3.0") Heavy Snow 12noon temp 31.2 (5.0") Heavy Snow 3pm temp 31.6 (8.0") Moderate Snow 6pm temp 31.3 (9") Light Snow 9pm temp 31.2 (10.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Cut WXsim's totals by 60% and Paul's model might verify for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So beautiful out this morning, especially with the springtime sun angle and all. It's hard to believe we have another potential plowable snowfall coming up. Don't worry about it. I follow road temps and that's it. All the people who said it wouldn't stick to the roads last time were mistaken. It'll stick to all surfaces and be plow able. You may see me tomorrow! Be careful going up 100, leave early if ya can, that hill backs up so far, all the Indian semi drivers stop on the hill lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yep....the models trended just cold enough over yesterday to increase the accumulation....that said I agree to cut it but I would put your 60 % at low end and 40% at high end .....so I would say 4 to 6 which is right where my NWS point forecast is at this time Cut WXsim's totals by 60% and Paul's model might verify for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Overall 12Z NAM is fairly similar to 6Z. A little more expansive with the QPF bomb over S NJ which affects totals on its periphery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Overall 12Z NAM is fairly similar to 6Z. A little more expansive with the QPF bomb over S NJ which affects totals on its periphery... Still brings heavy snow into area before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 While its obvious the NAM is overdone, I still think there is a small chance for a surprise for someone on the NW fringe of the heaviest lift. Mostly on grassy surfaces though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Still brings heavy snow into area before sunrise. I actually like the timing. Heavy precip is occuring before 8AM, so if places just N of Philly change to snow quick I think it would be hard to change back over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here ya go Looks to generous with snow from Allentown North and east. I would be shocked get anything more than inch or 2 when I live in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 While its obvious the NAM is overdone, I still think there is a small chance for a surprise for someone on the NW fringe of the heaviest lift. Mostly on grassy surfaces though. Yah in Philly grassy surfaces will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Still brings heavy snow into area before sunrise. Your area. Further northeast it arrives near sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Anyone see last night's 00z EURO Day 10? Talk about a late season cold blast APRIL 4th! Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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