AvantHiatus Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah they thought that in DC too... didn't work out too well. Are we dealing with a similar airmass in comparison to March 8th? The background setup has changed a bit with the record -AO blocking pattern. I suspect this is still a mostly wet snow and rain event for east of I-95 but a more significant event for areas that missed out on the previous coastal storm and that were forecasted to recieve snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Are we dealing with a similar airmass in comparison to March 8th? The background setup has changed a bit with the record -AO blocking pattern. I suspect this is still a mostly wet snow and rain event for east of I-95 but a more significant event for areas that missed out on the previous coastal storm and that were forecasted to recieve snowfall. The longwave pattern over has certainly changed, but that doesn't necessarily lead to a change in the sensible weather on a daily and regional scale. It will still have a marginal air mass at the surface, no high to the north to bring in cooler temps and a primary low in the eastern Ohio Valley giving way to a coastal redevelopment. Many of the same things are in play with this storm as there were with the 3/6-8 event (though without the huge backlash into New England and even into the Philly area long days after the coastal low initially developed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nams WAY west, faster, warmer at the coast, and SLAMS eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM brings a major daffodil crusher, that's right you just got NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM brings a major daffodil crusher, that's right you just got NAM'd Here comes the boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Here comes the boom no purple though, don't you feel cheated? NAM has given me 120" snow this winter on paper 48 hours out that must be a new record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 no purple though, don't you feel cheated? NAM has given me 120" snow this winter on paper 48 hours out that must be a new record lol how about it! i think id be over 200" by now haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 When will the NAM stop NAM'ing us. It's getting annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM is a crushing wet snowstorm for the NW burbs for sure, and I mean just North and West. Daytime has Philly South and East in question imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Can you ban the Nam? Its bull ****ting is getting way out of hand and is constantly off- topic. The 00Z is a grandslam for the LV but I have to realize that the rope is just being extended further to hang us with 1-3. I just cannot expect anything else. My ass hurts from being burned too many times wishing for an overperformer. There needs to be more blocking. The negative tilt is showing however which is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The NAM model needs to be discontinued...enough is enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Can you ban the Nam? Its bull ****ting is getting way out of hand and is constantly off- topic. The 00Z is a grandslam for the LV but I have to realize that the rope is just being extended further to hang us with 1-3. I just cannot expect anything else. My ass hurts from being burned too many times wishing for an overperformer. There needs to be more blocking. The negative tilt is showing however which is a good sign 4-6" is my final snow of the year snowfall forecast for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 so how long has dave warren been on Fox...never really liked his delivery on NBC10 but SO much more relaxed and animated on Fox..must have been "constrained" by someone on NBC10.... has 3-6" for NW burbs and pretty enthused about a big storm! Edit..can't say much for the woman who "replaced" him on NBC10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 At least the NAM has cut back from 18" to 15" over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 im guessing the ny forum is happy again? emotional roller coaster for those guys today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Rgem has a 977 mb storm just off the coast of snj. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 so how long has dave warren been on Fox...never really liked his delivery on NBC10 but SO much more relaxed and animated on Fox..must have been "constrained" by someone on NBC10.... has 3-6" for NW burbs and pretty enthused about a big storm! Edit..can't say much for the woman who "replaced" him on NBC10 He was still with NBC10 as of earlier this month/late last month, but I had read that he was likely on his way out. He might just be freelancing for Fox, I don't know. This is banter, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The MA forum says GFS is very NAM like....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM gets good snow into area before sunrise monday when it has the best chance to accumulate Rgem has a 977 mb storm just off the coast of snj. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Not even close, at least for nj..If anything the gfs is drier then the 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The MA forum says GFS is very NAM like....... Just saw it.. less qpf than nam and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 RGEM gets good snow into area before sunrise monday when it has the best chance to accumulate Yeah.. 40mm water equiv of snow to me in Ocean County NJ. 15+ inches. Ain't never going to happen this time of year. But I like the looks of it.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just saw it.. less qpf than nam and further south Just saw the map and Philly & west looked ok to me. NJ not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Just saw the map and Philly & west looked ok to me. NJ not so much Yep, SW of the city looks good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS has trended to the NAM since the 12z run just a little further south and a little weaker. Mod/heavy precip between balt and philly/S Jersey on monday AM. Boundary layer is warmer than NAM however so snow accumulation is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The 2 C difference between the NAM and GFS at 850 mb essentially transfers to the surface. -4.5C on the GFS means the surface stays near +2C while -6.5C on the NAM brings the surface down to freezing. Edit: At PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ggem 978 mb off the coast of nj.. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The 2 C difference between the NAM and GFS at 850 mb essentially transfers to the surface. -4.5C on the GFS means the surface stays near +2C while -6.5C on the NAM brings the surface down to freezing. Edit: At PHL translates to what for central montco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 translates to what for central montco? Colder but not enough unless you have elevation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Colder but not enough unless you have elevation too. ~400 feet enough? if cold enough, where are we with possibilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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