Capt. Adam Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Thats actually Ocean County bullseye, but I wont complain one bit if that actually verified. Hahaha Despite my sentiment of the NAM, you know I am deep down hoping it has the last laugh on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Despite my sentiment of the NAM, you know I am deep down hoping it has the last laugh on us. It is long overdue to score the upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is coating to 2" to summarize NAM = 10-15" GFS = coating to 2" old ecm = coating to 2" old ggem = 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 SERF Plumes place everyone away from immediate coast over 7". Phil is at 9". Even Cape May is has 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 fwiw ggem total snowfall http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=198041 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 fwiw ggem total snowfall http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=198041 That's actually a huge shift south for the GGEM. Towards the EC/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6z gfs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06060.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06066.gif http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=198071 Terrible timing obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not that I believe whats depicted here will actually happen, but the 6z NAM goes nuts with accumulated snowfall at 72 hours for east central and northeast PA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Surely overdone along I-95 and in S NJ as surface temps will be at least slightly above freezing. If the 6Z GFS surface temps along I-95 were just a little colder they'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I still like my 1-3 call in elevations north/west plus Mt Airy/Mt Rib/Chestnut Hill, coating along 95....for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I still like my 1-3 call in elevations north/west plus Mt Airy/Mt Rib/Chestnut Hill, coating along 95....for now. i think that is a pretty good call. I would take a bl;end of the euro and the gfs...which brings you around .5-.75 qpf for phl and like .3 north and west. Precip falling during the day and if you don't get into heavier banding it will have a hard time accumulating. The airport looks to be a 34-35 and wet snow that never accumulates unless they get into something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah, a coating to an inch or so seems reasonable for I-95, more for those NW with elevation. Freezing level at PHL looks like it will be 1000-1500 feet all day long so its gonna be tough to accumulate at sea level, definitely better the higher you go. PHL might have a lot of SNRA. Again this is going off the 0Z GFS/EC blend. If this could push its main precip period into the night time hours, the results could be substantially different. All it takes is the removal of the daytime heating. Right now GFS/EC both have main precip during the day, which is gonna make it tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Latest Wxsim with a 6z blend of the GFS/NAM has snow starting after midnight tomorrow (Monday AM) Moderate Snow at 6am temp 33.0 Heavy Snow at 9am - 32.9 Heavy Snow at 12pm - 33.3 Heavy Snow at 3pm - 33.3 Moderate Snow at 6pm - 32.8 Ending by 9pm - total snow with a 7:1 average is 6" to 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are over one inch of liquid for area. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are over one inch of liquid for area. Fwiw Do you know what they come out to when you leave out the known high-busting NAM members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Its the NAM, yes its the NAM, absolutely be cautious of it because its the NAM... without global support, it should probably be thrown out, in fact... but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Even I'm not going to post the NAM clown maps. It's ridiculous how outrageous the model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Insert comment "If only this was January." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The NAM is doing the same thing it did for the snowquester, it's putting accumulating snow during the day time when temps are mid 30's. That's a tall order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Tropical convection causes rapid deepening of low pressure on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Tropical convection causes rapid deepening of low pressure on NAM. TWC hugging the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Tropical convection causes rapid deepening of low pressure on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Figured I should sneak in an initial forecast before going into work today. More of the same as far as sharp gradients and low-level temperature issues are concerned. Also, March. Further discussion, though you all probably know how it is already: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-90-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-march-24-25-initial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NYC Forum on suicide watch after the GFS! Runs the low straight east off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is a zero snow debacle run The gap in the american models is getting wider than the grand canyon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS is a zero snow debacle run The gap in the american models is getting wider than the grand canyon Because one knows what it's doing for the most part and the other is a colossal POS that needs to get blown up by a drone strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are over one inch of liquid for area. Fwiw When was the last time the SREFs outperformed the globals? (am curious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks awfully familiar to a couple of weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks awfully familiar to a couple of weeks ago... 032313-GFS.jpg The euro isn't too far off. I'm going off a combo of the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Looks awfully familiar to a couple of weeks ago... 032313-GFS.jpg The euro isn't too far off. I'm going off a combo of the gfs and euro I like both of these posts. I really don't want to have to deal with this snowfall. I'll be working the noon to 8:00pm shift running over the Blue Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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