dryslotted Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hard to have any confidence that this systems results in anything more than a coating on the grass (if we're lucky) and unnecessarily epic traffic (this will definitely happen) for those of us in the city on S & E regardless of model output. Fool me once, shame on me, fool me dozens of times in one winter, go to hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 well the 12z euro looks better this run. nice 996 low at 78 off the del coast 992 at 84 off nj then 988 pulling away at 90 interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro has .5 up to Ttn-NYC .75 up to Phl-toms river 1.00+ for Delmarva Surface temps meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 1" precip dl, cape may .75" south jersey .5" phl from my rookie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 surface temp crappy at 18z mon getting better by 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 now that the ecm is trying to tease by bumping up the precipitation, what is the time frame it falls in? I get the idea it comes in at a bad time of day the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z mon - 12z tues 18z mon mod stuff so afternoon temp issues best shot (for white sticking) is 0z to 6z tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z mon - 12z tues 18z mon mod stuff so afternoon temp issues best shot (for white sticking) is 0z to 6z tuesday as long as we could get the bulk of the moderate stuff after 4pm we could see 1-3" fairly large jump in the ecm at this range ensemble will be interesting as will the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z mon - 12z tues 18z mon mod stuff so afternoon temp issues best shot (for white sticking) is 0z to 6z tuesday If system can slow down some, 6Z-12Z Tuesday would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 How much QPF on the ECM for ABE and what are the surface temps like? Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 noaa: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z euro phl: .81" upper levels good, 2m issues abe: .47" , 2m hanging closer to 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ECM EPS ensemble mean came even farther NW of 00z... From Earthlight in the NYC Metro thread: "The Euro ensembles are def improved as well...better than 00z. The best thing about the Euro was that it was a marked improvement over the 00z run...and that is an important thing to see at this range. It is very close to showing a big solution...the ensembles don't necessarily add confidence to the fact that the big solution is coming..but it's good to see them improved. We are running short on time for the Euro to show another big bump to the NW. Usually after around 66-72 hours out whatever changes it makes will be small ticks and variations and nothing major. We need a good run tonight." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ECM EPS ensemble mean came even farther NW of 00z... From Earthlight in the NYC Metro thread: "The Euro ensembles are def improved as well...better than 00z. The best thing about the Euro was that it was a marked improvement over the 00z run...and that is an important thing to see at this range. It is very close to showing a big solution...the ensembles don't necessarily add confidence to the fact that the big solution is coming..but it's good to see them improved. We are running short on time for the Euro to show another big bump to the NW. Usually after around 66-72 hours out whatever changes it makes will be small ticks and variations and nothing major. We need a good run tonight." I know the quote is form a NY poster but we don't want it coming any further north....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 From a timing standpoint, the EC isn't that good for much of note except on the front and back end due to it coming in during the mid to late AM (at least locally) and having to counteract March solar & marginal temps...so it might be 4" of snow but half of it might melt. Granted, precip *may* be heavy but we're relying on a Euro model that missed the mark on QPF quite a few times this winter and hasn't been that reliable or consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Wxsim 18z GFS and NAM - for NW Chesco has a mix arriving Sunday night around 9pm with it becoming all snow by midnight and then moderate snow by 3am. Moderate snow at 6am and Heavy Snow at 9am. Sees total accumulation at 4" to 6" despite temps hanging between 32.1 and 33.0 for the most part of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I know the quote is form a NY poster but we don't want it coming any further north....right? I would say yes more of north eastward motion over the benchmark. We want the CCB cold conveyer belt to set up over us and stay over us. Currently EC gets some of the CCB over Philly but its mostly south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I would say yes more of north eastward motion over the benchmark. We want the CCB cold conveyer belt to set up over us and stay over us. Currently EC gets some of the CCB over Philly but its mostly south and east. Some of us are ok with south and east of Philly. Pretty much every model showing snow, including Euro at this point. Albeit going to have the issue of daytime snowfall that will keep accumulations down. Amazing only 3 pages on this. This is starting to shape up as a storm we only get to see once every few years. (i.e. - a true spring snow event) But with recent weather phenomena of the past 9 months, can't say I'm surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM is a solid hit for South Central and SE/E PA, no? Monmouth County bullseye, lol: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamp24078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 From a timing standpoint, the EC isn't that good for much of note except on the front and back end due to it coming in during the mid to late AM (at least locally) and having to counteract March solar & marginal temps...so it might be 4" of snow but half of it might melt. Granted, precip *may* be heavy but we're relying on a Euro model that missed the mark on QPF quite a few times this winter and hasn't been that reliable or consistent with this storm. Yeah it sucked all winter. Was spot on with Mondays went. Now not consistent with this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 freakin nam, cold and snow, geeze. keeps 32 around i95. heavy wet snow 1.5-1.75" phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM is a solid hit for South Central and SE/E PA, no? 12+ from Philly to northern tier pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6z mon thru 6z tues for nam storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If only the NAM was the Euro. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How accurate has been the NAM this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 nam needs other 0z support, we all know this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How accurate has been the NAM this winter? I think the NAM is probably closing in on 150"+ of model output snow for parts of NJ this year... 15"-20" on the clown map this run. I'd laugh if it wasn't so sad to think our tax dollars actually pay for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM is a solid hit for South Central and SE/E PA, no? Monmouth County bullseye, lol: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamp24078.gif Thats actually Ocean County bullseye, but I wont complain one bit if that actually verified. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 at NAM best part is it now manages to hit boston and sne, so that part of it ends up being right btw I am still waiting for my 15" from the NAM for Feb 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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