Absolute Humidity Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Pattern of the year is to show supressed solutions then gradually bring these north with a transfer that screws everyone south of 40N while slamming New England. However due to this most intense AO blocking, this one might actually get the job the done for those away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GGEM brings back the whopper balls in dr no's court as expected. I suspect it comes in slightly north and a hair wetter, just enough to torture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 FWIW - GGEM has a 51mm QPF marker over Philly at h96 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Dr. No says No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 6z gfs more in line with the 0z EURo, with a lighter Qpf field overall. If base expectations off of those numbers compared to the NAM and Canadian camp, especially with the potential for a quicker occlusion. (Sorry if I haven't been posting much, I'm just not that excited about this threat, but call me snake bitten) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm rooting for this one, because I'd enjoy the excuse to come home (since I can for this one), but I'm not excited either. 0Z GFS ensembles were more amped than the op... and there's the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm thinking this is going to be a similar event to this past Monday. Locations N&W of the city have a better chance of seeing snowfall accumulations with some mixing. More rain as you get towards Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm rooting for this one, because I'd enjoy the excuse to come home (since I can for this one), but I'm not excited either. 0Z GFS ensembles were more amped than the op... and there's the GGEM... well its friday and this is coming late sunday / early monday so close to decision time, #sand or #snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think 1-3 is doable in the suburbs west and southwest of the city, perhaps into Philly (Mount Airy, Chestnut Hill) and the immediate northern burbs. There might be a trend north on that by the time I put a map up in a couple of days but I'm not enthused with much more than that. The *good* thing is that it is coming in at night...that's the saving grace between this being something and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think 1-3 is doable in the suburbs west and southwest of the city, perhaps into Philly (Mount Airy, Chestnut Hill) and the immediate northern burbs. There might be a trend north on that by the time I put a map up in a couple of days but I'm not enthused with much more than that. The *good* thing is that it is coming in at night...that's the saving grace between this being something and nothing. This is a huge plus for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 When Ray buys a ticket, I will buy into the "snow is coming to NJ" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The *good* thing is that it is coming in at night... Unless you buy the EC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Elliot Abrams this morning on KYW - "If I was tied to a stake to give a prediction, I'd go with 3-6 inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Elliot Abrams this morning on KYW - "If I was tied to a stake to give a prediction, I'd go with 3-6 inches" If I blended the GFS and EC at PHL, it would be more like 0.3-0.6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If I blended the GFS and EC at PHL, it would be more like 0.3-0.6 inches.Thank goodness philly weather does'nt reflect the whole area! It looks like we will need some elevation for decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Elliot Abrams this morning on KYW - "If I was tied to a stake to give a prediction, I'd go with 3-6 inches" I guess Elliot is a fan of the GEM and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Elliot Abrams this morning on KYW - "If I was tied to a stake to give a prediction, I'd go with 3-6 inches" I guess Elliot is a fan of the GEM and NAM Why not its been most consistent. Euros been bumping the low way north and then say south every other run. Euro was consistent for over 14 runs for last Mondays storm. Now it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I guess Elliot is a fan of the GEM and NAM Yea I'd say that's a pretty safe bet. IF he was going only based off a GEM/NAM solution he would be forecasting 4-10/8-12. Most ensembles of the GFS/EURO are more robust than the op which only give us a couple of inches. So I would say a good blend of everything would be right around 3-6" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Why not its been most consistent. Euros been bumping the low way north and then say south every other run. Euro was consistent for over 14 runs for last Mondays storm. Now it's not. There are a lot of variables on the table with the energy transfer, strength of the primary, etc... Canadian *may* be right but it also has an historical bias towards overamping. I wouldn't say 3-6 in the city specifically either given elevation for 40% of the city is under 100'...but that's just me. May be a situation where the Airport is trace because of mixing, etc. and Mount Airy is at 3"...that would seem more plausible than a 3-6" blanket (IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Canadian *may* be right but it also has an historical bias towards overamping. I *hope* the Canadian is right... I'd LOVE to come home for that. Verbatim its probably a foot for the city. But I wouldn't bet on it. Not at this stage, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 potential increases on 12z gfs but... precip moves in 12z mon, out 9z tues. mod precip during the day, surface temps issues. probably snow/rain slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yea I'd say that's a pretty safe bet. IF he was going only based off a GEM/NAM solution he would be forecasting 4-10/8-12. Most ensembles of the GFS/EURO are more robust than the op which only give us a couple of inches. So I would say a good blend of everything would be right around 3-6" IMO. Given the temperatures and timing I think 1-3" for the city and 2-5" for north and west seems more reasonable IMO. Obviously a lot could change, but anyone who's looking for over 6" from this storm is pretty much dreaming at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Given the temperatures and timing I think 1-3" for the city and 2-5" for north and west seems more reasonable IMO. Obviously a lot could change, but anyone who's looking for over 6" from this storm is pretty much dreaming at this point. With all the information given at this time I would say that's a very plausible idea. Hate to beat a dead horse but this sun is going to kill amounts if it falls during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Given the temperatures and timing I think 1-3" for the city and 2-5" for north and west seems more reasonable IMO. Obviously a lot could change, but anyone who's looking for over 6" from this storm is pretty much dreaming at this point. Honestly... anyone in the city who is thinking 1-3" is doing some wishful thinking at this point. Which isn't to say it can't happen, just that the odds are against it (hence the "wishful" part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Honestly... anyone in the city who is thinking 1-3" is doing some wishful thinking at this point. Which isn't to say it can't happen, just that the odds are against it (hence the "wishful" part). Well if the CMC and NAM have got any clue I think 1-2" in Philly isn't too unreasonable. At this point I think its the suburbs which have a chance to cash in. If EURO hops on board I'll be more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well if the CMC and NAM have got any clue I think 1-2" in Philly isn't too unreasonable. At this point I think its the suburbs which have a chance to cash in. If EURO hops on board I'll be more optimistic. ABE Is in a pretty good spot with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 yes ggem looks great but be aware it has been correcting south every run the last 24 hours one more correction and it's in line with the ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 yes ggem looks great but be aware it has been correcting south every run the last 24 hours one more correction and it's in line with the ecm Not really. It was the first model to have this system even remotely this far north and was considered to be an outlier. This run is almost identical to 0z and I would argue that it has been the most consistent model over the past 3 major runs. While I do think this run is overamped. You gotta admit that it's been pretty darn consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Well if the CMC and NAM have got any clue I think 1-2" in Philly isn't too unreasonable. At this point I think its the suburbs which have a chance to cash in. If EURO hops on board I'll be more optimistic. The problem is that you think the NAM might have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The problem is that you think the NAM might have a clue. Touché. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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