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March 25th - 26th Potential Threat Discussion


goombatommy

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Rgem not to different then the ggem

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif

 

 

Precip map shows a mix, at this point i would just be happy to see flakes fly..

Nasty cut off. 20 mile shift in either direction looks like the difference between light drizzle and 6" of paste.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0431 AM CDT MON MAR 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN/SRN PA...ERN PANHANDLE OF

WV...WRN/CNTRL/NRN MD...NRN DE....SWRN NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 250931Z - 251530Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER ERN OH/WRN

PA....WHILE SNOW INCREASES AND SPREADS NEWD FROM NRN VA AND THE ERN

WV PANHANDLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN/CNTRL MD INTO THE LWR

SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE VALLEYS OF PA...NJ...AND NRN DE.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW ORIGINAL MID-LVL LOW/VORT

CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S MIDWESTERN SNOW STORM NOW

ELONGATING INTO A W-E SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH.

THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPR CENTER REFORMS E OF

DELAWARE BAY LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW OVER SE OH ALSO

SHOULD WEAKEN...WITH NEW SFC CENTER CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ABOUT 125

MILES E OF HATTERAS.

WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY SYSTEM LIKELY TO

CONTINUE WEAKENING...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH

AFTER MID-MORNING OVER ERN OH AND WRN/CNTRL PA. IN THE MEAN

TIME...ISOLD 1 IN/HR RATES MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER

TERRAIN OF SW AND S CNTRL PA.

FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF UPLIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE

ACROSS NRN VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...AND SRN NJ THROUGH LATE

MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROUNDING

BASE OF THE ELONGATING UPR TROUGH. SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL

SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...BUT LOW-LVL THERMAL PROFILES

LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MOST

PARTS OF THE CSTL PLN...AND EVEN OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE

PIEDMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH RATES UP TO AND LOCALLY IN EXCESS

OF 1 IN/HR MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE BLUE

RIDGE OF NRN VA/MD AND S CNTRL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF SE PA...MD AND

VA JUST W AND NW OF PHILADELPHIA...BALTIMORE...AND DC. THIS ACTIVITY

SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

..CORFIDI.. 03/25/2013

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HURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR was an epic fail today.

 

That said, NWS did pretty well on going 3-5 in South Jersey. Hats off.

 

Since it was me that started the 3-5, in retrospect a non-warning 2-4 (3.5) would have been better west of the Garden State, south of 195 and east of 295. Looks like there were a number of around 3 inches that occurred within that area. Funny how along the immediate Delaware River again was shafted.

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