RedSky Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 New NAM just about cut QPF in half back home. just shocking on the NAMs crawl southeast now with its tail between its legs 1-4" sounds pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 New NAM just about cut QPF in half back home. Looks like its finally getting a clue. I like the NWS map a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Walt is not here today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 New NAM just about cut QPF in half back home. Looks like another east of Jamesburg south of Sandy Hook event QPF wise... We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Walt is not here today . Apparently he was talking about an AFD from weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 just shocking on the NAMs crawl southeast now with its tail between its legs 1-4" sounds pretty darn good Its been waffling, so a waffle back wouldn't surprise me... then again, it holding steady or even continuing the crawl also wouldn't surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Woah... just looked at the new NAM soundings and they sure warmed up the surface tomorrow, back home. No more 32-33. Now its 35-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Woah... just looked at the new NAM soundings and they sure warmed up the surface tomorrow, back home. No more 32-33. Now its 35-36. ruh roh raggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Woah... just looked at the new NAM soundings and they sure warmed up the surface tomorrow, back home. No more 32-33. Now its 35-36. Well with less intense precip this is to be expected, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Woah... just looked at the new NAM soundings and they sure warmed up the surface tomorrow, back home. No more 32-33. Now its 35-36. had a feeling about this in banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ruh roh raggy Yeah when the NAM gives up on dynamic cooling, you are in trouble. Won't change anything yet but my adjustment to a slightly snowier scenario may well have been a grevious error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well with less intense precip this is to be expected, no? Well some NAM runs have had less precip like the current one, but they still had it dynamically cooling to near freezing. This is the first NAM to totally abandon that, at least at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The Mt Holly map which shows higher amounts in s jersey looks good...too far north may be a problem. That's why I don't think NYC will see 2 - 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Clown map of the NAM still has foot amounts in South Jerz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 18z GFS instantweathermap output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 18Z GFS also sliced QPF back home by nearly half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It is time for nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I give up on the american models they are inexplicable back down to 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Outside of south jersey the rest of us need elevation!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Outside of south jersey the rest of us need elevation!! Or Dec 5th 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Don't laugh at me but the sky has the look that it always has just before it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 RAP is showing some pretty impressive simulated radar echoes in DE, SEPA, and SNJ toward hours +16hrs to +18hrs on the 21Z run. Question -- is the RAP usually decent at the end of its forecast period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 You know it's a bad sign when you can't even get an advisory posted. Gonna be a sad 24 hours. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 18z runs of GFS and NAM blended have snow starting in NW Philly burbs before midnight and getting moderate by 3am and heavy by 6am - near 2" on the ground by 6am. Heavy snow between around 7 to 10am moderate snow for most of the day with between 6" to 8" accumulating by the time it all ends tomorrow evening - temps fall below freezing by 4am and stay that way all day. Wxsim thinks snow will be on the ground thru around noon on Thursday...now if that were to come to pass that would be impressive here in the last week of March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 RAP is showing some pretty impressive simulated radar echoes in DE, SEPA, and SNJ toward hours +16hrs to +18hrs on the 21Z run. Question -- is the RAP usually decent at the end of its forecast period? Nope...its usually very inconsistent. I don't put much faith in the rap past hour 9. Just ask the dc folks how it turned out for them on 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colette11 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Chesco, how accurate has Wxsim been this winter for you so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It is only as good as the model (GFS/NAM) inputs it uses...so not a good year for any model as far as I can tell. That said it is very good at local start/stop times and gives precise amounts. But if I shoveled as much as it predicted 24 hours before start times I might have triple the 24" i have recorded to date. But it is a great and fun tool to model a true "in your backyard forecast" Chesco, how accurate has Wxsim been this winter for you so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 SREF hold serve if they matter anymore. They were golden in 2010 and 2011. Not so much in 2013. On edit, they are a hair dryer along the northern edges. Still have 1" to Philly and TTN. NYC, not looking so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 0z NAM is now HALF the 12z ecm QPF, this is going to be great to see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Just woke up and saw the NAM... wow. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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