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March 25th - 26th Potential Threat Discussion


goombatommy

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just shocking on the NAMs crawl southeast now with its tail between its legs

 

1-4" sounds pretty darn good

Its been waffling, so a waffle back wouldn't surprise me... then again, it holding steady or even continuing the crawl also wouldn't surprise me :lol:

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Well with less intense precip this is to be expected, no?

Well some NAM runs have had less precip like the current one, but they still had it dynamically cooling to near freezing.  This is the first NAM to totally abandon that, at least at home.

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18z runs of GFS and NAM blended have snow starting in NW Philly burbs before midnight and getting moderate by 3am and heavy by 6am - near 2" on the ground by 6am. Heavy snow between around 7 to 10am moderate snow for most of the day with between 6" to 8" accumulating by the time it all ends tomorrow evening - temps fall below freezing by 4am and stay that way all day. Wxsim thinks snow will be on the ground thru around noon on Thursday...now if that were to come to pass that would be impressive here in the last week of March!

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RAP is showing some pretty impressive simulated radar echoes in DE, SEPA, and SNJ toward hours +16hrs to +18hrs on the 21Z run. Question -- is the RAP usually decent at the end of its forecast period?

Nope...its usually very inconsistent. I don't put much faith in the rap past hour 9. Just ask the dc folks how it turned out for them on 3/6.

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It is only as good as the model (GFS/NAM) inputs it uses...so not a good year for any model as far as I can tell. That said it is very good at local start/stop times and gives precise amounts. But if I shoveled as much as it predicted 24 hours before start times I might have triple the 24" i have recorded to date. But it is a great and fun tool to model a true "in your backyard forecast"

Chesco, how accurate has Wxsim been this winter for you so far?

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