goombatommy Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I didn't see one, but since we're ~5 days out, hope you don't mind if we can start a thread towards this potential threat. If its too soon please feel free to delete. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Well for here in NW Chester County PA the latest model runs with the Wxsim tool shows a mix of rain and snow beginning early afternoon on Sunday transitioning to all snow by late Sunday evening with 10" to 13" of very heavy wet snow accumulating - temps will range between 32.2 and 33.1 during most of the very heavy snowfall rates during the overnight and during the day on Monday. Of course much will change by then....no doubt a miss to the south will be one of the future model runs - as the good ole GFS will always do a few days before any big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This one is a rough one. We've got 3 different cyclonic circulations surrounding and working in tandem with the main upper low coming across the Appalachians. As each one slightly alters with each model run, the timing of the vertically stacking primary and redevelopment will change too. This makes a huge difference for who gets into the heaviest precipitation and who does not. The ECMWF/EPS indicate the potential for banding induced snow accumulation early Monday in our south and eastern areas, possibly extending into the I-95 corridor (per EPS). The window may be brief but the timing is looking good, arriving after sunset Sunday. Assuming the inland / GGEM-like tracks are not as correct, we should have no problems in the mid levels for snow (although I haven't seen profiles). The issue is the low level easterly wind (is that a pseudo-coastal front on the ECMWF Monday AM?) starting Sunday evening into Monday. There is still time to see changes with this setup to bring the low on the euro further north, but that also means this could go the way of the GGEM. It is possible, though, that with a further north solution, that means the primary holds on longer. This reduces the precipitation amounts/intensity and cold air. Pretty fine line in this setup and the line got finer because of the calender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Looks like the 12Z GFS and Euro want to give ILG and PHL cold rain. The Euro shows some flurries near the end. There are some accumulations in the lowest part of the DELMARVA, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Well for here in NW Chester County PA the latest model runs with the Wxsim tool shows a mix of rain and snow beginning early afternoon on Sunday transitioning to all snow by late Sunday evening with 10" to 13" of very heavy wet snow accumulating - temps will range between 32.2 and 33.1 during most of the very heavy snowfall rates during the overnight and during the day on Monday. Of course much will change by then....no doubt a miss to the south will be one of the future model runs - as the good ole GFS will always do a few days before any big event the weenie dream to end winter and roll into spring, oh wait it's already spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Cold rain per 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Cold rain in SJ could equal heavy snow in NW burbs......or the more likely a slushy mess. Plenty of time for many more changes Cold rain per 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Cold rain in SJ could equal heavy snow in NW burbs......or the more likely a slushy mess. Plenty of time for many more changes or (next-to) nothing if the storm suppresses...and that it a plausible scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0z runs were ugly... just a weak secondary that looks to shoot ene , not run up towards the benchmark. minimal precip being thrown back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0z runs were ugly... just a weak secondary that looks to shoot ene , not run up towards the benchmark. minimal precip being thrown back. yes the whopper is history. Now it looks like a famous rays coating to 2 inches N&W of I95, a fitting end to this snow season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0z runs were ugly... just a weak secondary that looks to shoot ene , not run up towards the benchmark. minimal precip being thrown back. yes the whopper is history. Now it looks like a famous rays coating to 2 inches N&W of I95, a fitting end to this snow season Weenies last stand: it's just on its own with this solution. The euro ensembles were pretty meager with strength of the secondary and an OTS/southern slider track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Weenies last stand: it's just on its own with this solution. The euro ensembles were pretty meager with strength of the secondary and an OTS/southern slider track. We're talking a few days out, models don't have the correct solution from this range. Just have to wait and see, although average highs in the area for late march are in the mid to upper 50's in the day.....has to be way below normal or have most of it fall at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 yes the whopper is history. Now it looks like a famous rays coating to 2 inches N&W of I95, a fitting end to this snow season In fairness I should note that I think I borrowed that term from my days at AccuWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 euro brings about .25-.5 to the region but the bl is very questionable...my snow maps show majority of the snow accum from nw chesco into berks and lehigh on west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 from FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z gfs, 32 surface hanging around I95, hr90-96, .25", good timing wee hours WV jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z gfs, 32 surface hanging around I95, hr90-96, .25", good timing wee hours Yes, the BL cools off enough such that some of that could actually stick at night all the way down to I-95... before melting away during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 ^ yet another coating, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z GGEM is still really amped uphttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 AccuWx precip type maps show snow almost all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 How does the 12z euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 How does the 12z euro look? Not out for another hour because of the time change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 How does the 12z euro look? eh, some light precip during daylight hrs as low slides south and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 the primary on the euro goes from southern alabama to ohio from 72-96 hours, then most of the precipitaion misses us south? only this year could such a thing occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM a big hit.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 There is only one model that I care about...I refuse to let these other dipsh** models get my hopes up. If the euro comes in wetter and a little more amped then I may throw my heart into this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 0z trend is north in the models, full sampling causing a change possibly. But i would worry about bl issues with a primary into ohio in late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 0z trend is north in the models, full sampling causing a change possibly. But i would worry about bl issues with a primary into ohio in late march It can also depend on rate of precip; light precip more likely to be rain or mix. 00z GFS was an improvement in getting more precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I am not excited for this one as of right now a low to the west in the Ohio Valley and another at the coast is death to us when it comes to snow especially so this late in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I am not excited for this one as of right now a low to the west in the Ohio Valley and another at the coast is death to us when it comes to snow especially so this late in March! We have to watch how quick that transfer is. Right now it could honestly go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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