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March 21 - Inverted(Norlun) Trough


Baroclinic Zone

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NAM blows....but it's the NAM

 

I know it's been said countless times about norluns and you guys no doubt have more experience than me...

Localizing best convergence and instability... I feel like as long as some signal is there over SNE (which it continues to be in 0z Nam), we'll need 2 or more cycle runs to work out any details... I wouldn't take any model to the bank even 24-30 hours away

 

And also, NAM blows

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I know it's been said countless times about norluns and you guys no doubt have more experience than me...

Localizing best convergence and instability... I feel like as long as some signal is there over SNE (which it continues to be in 0z Nam), we'll need 2 or more cycle runs to work out any details... I wouldn't take any model to the bank even 24-30 hours away

 

And also, NAM blows

 

The NAM is probably "fine" for it.  I think what we started to lose this run was that shuffle west.  There would be a intense are of precip around here somewhere probably just offshore SW like earlier runs from other models.  In short BOX has it covered pending banding which there's no way to predict yet.

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NAM pretty much in line with the BOX map.  Hi Res shows the potential.

 

The shift west kind of stopped with this run of the NAM anyway.  In line with RGEM/Euro

 

Yeah I see what you mean. Using that model trend link that Quincy posted, stopping the westward shift might actually be better for you/PYM if best frontogenesis sets up over you vs. Taunton/RI... In any case, this is probably all academic at this point

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Yeah I see what you mean. Using that model trend link that Quincy posted, stopping the westward shift might actually be better for you/PYM if best frontogenesis sets up over you vs. Taunton/RI... In any case, this is probably all academic at this point

 

Yep.  RGEM just kind of sharpened up a bit.  There's more precip by 0z Friday, about the same after that but maybe a few miles east...wobbles. 

 

Is what it is, could be an inch or two or it could be 4-8", we'll see.

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Gfs looks great

 

Let's see what the king says.  Tight band of 4-8 or maybe even 5-10 seems like it's possible.

 

Nice to see the west "shift" end so far on these runs - sorry guys, Cape has taken one for the team lately.  Be nice to see someone down in the CP Hood get some good stuff, or over towards Phil.

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