Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I didnt look at models much aside of the euro. But the 0z nam had almost no or no qpf as well? Something is wrong with the math or assimilation of that model. It just cannot correct once it goes off the range. HRRR stunk too. Rap was okay not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I didnt look at models much aside of the euro. But the 0z nam had almost no or no qpf as well? Something is wrong with the math or assimilation of that model. It just cannot correct once it goes off the range. HRRR stunk too. Rap was okay not good. 00z Euro I thought was actually the best...it showed very very intense QPF just south of MVY...but not quite far enough NW of reality...12z backed off a tad which wasn't too good by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 A couple very intense bands coming up from Buzzards Bay right now...if those can hold together, that will nail near Rollo and westward into parts of PYM Looks like its all just starting to slide north so I should get into that. Heavier snow now, based on earlier probably pushing 2 per hour. Need to clean the table in a few will remeasure. About 11-12" so far this year in these micro events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Provincetown (PVC) is getting smoked too...Race Point right now might be fun to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That stuff in far western Barntsable county near the Canal is strengthening...Rollo should get that. I wonder if someone can pull off like a 14" spot in this. What a freakish event...but Norluns can do this. Also watch that band on the SW edge of Buzzards Bay. Could get Wareham again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That stuff in far western Barntsable county near the Canal is strengthening...Rollo should get that. I wonder if someone can pull off like a 14" spot in this. What a freakish event...but Norluns can do this. Also watch that band on the SW edge of Buzzards Bay. Could get Wareham again. We've all had our turn this winter in the max or near it. Was Patrick's turn. He's right under that smokeshow. It's good snow here, I'm up to 7.3" when I just cleared. Unusual snow for us like that event a month or so ago with the freakish 4-5" right along the canal. Falling mostly straight down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 BTW nice forecast by the 18z NAM which came out as the event was starting. It had 0.00 eveywhere in SE MA....LOL. I say this knowing models don't handle Norluns well, but that was beyond deplorable...even for a norlun. forget the 18z... check out bufkit from the 3/22 0z NAM for PYM, like 1 hour from go time... clearly the model does not have the resolution for this... i could be wrong, but i actually wonder if we are focusing on the wrong scale... ie. in broad strokes, most of southeast MA is in the 1-4 range which the NAM (at least earlier today) and GFS actually got sort of right. the meso-scale band now is just too high-res to signal into those broad strokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 forget the 18z... check out bufkit from the 3/22 0z NAM for PYM, like 1 hour from go time... 03_22_0z_NAM.png clearly the model does not have the resolution for this... i could be wrong, but i actually wonder if we are focusing on the wrong scale... ie. in broad strokes, most of southeast MA is in the 1-4 range which the NAM (at least earlier today) and GFS actually got sort of right. the meso-scale band now is just too high-res to signal into those broad strokes. Maybe but I think it's more a syndrome with the NAM. It did the same thing with the mini-warm layer in the blizzard. Just wouldn't let it go run after run. This time it totally missed the precip on the west side of the developing storm around ACY today...and never recovered in any subsequent runs. Just horrible. I'm not going to clear the main 'board' out back. Too pretty. Cleared another area, may or may not make it out to remeasure. getting the huge flakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm about finished with big totals. A little over 7" should be my final tally. Enjoy the 10-12"+ out east! Hoping someone can pull off a 15 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 We've all had our turn this winter in the max or near it. Was Patrick's turn. He's right under that smokeshow. It's good snow here, I'm up to 7.3" when I just cleared. Unusual snow for us like that event a month or so ago with the freakish 4-5" right along the canal. Falling mostly straight down. Thank you Rollo. Amazing event. 9 inches here. Cleared once about 2 hours ago. You are just about to get slammed by two joining bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 forget the 18z... check out bufkit from the 3/22 0z NAM for PYM, like 1 hour from go time... 03_22_0z_NAM.png clearly the model does not have the resolution for this... i could be wrong, but i actually wonder if we are focusing on the wrong scale... ie. in broad strokes, most of southeast MA is in the 1-4 range which the NAM (at least earlier today) and GFS actually got sort of right. the meso-scale band now is just too high-res to signal into those broad strokes. The area that got >3" is more than enough for the model resolution on absolute scale...but I just think the processes that cause this precip is beyond most models. The SREFs were actually not terrible. The Euro was respectable as well at 00z....but it flopped at 12z reasonably....however, this is all a QPF issue. There were signs that this would produce outside of the QPF....we had lift and we had good saturation and good LL convergence. All of those pointed to an over performer somewhere....which iswhy Scott and I were both saying this morning that this will probably surprise in the positive direction somewhere in SE MA...it wasn't a dried up piece of junk like that norlun bust back in early February (or was it late January? I usually remember these dates but can't on that one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The area that got >3" is more than enough for the model resolution on absolute scale...but I just think the processes that cause this precip is beyond most models. The SREFs were actually not terrible. The Euro was respectable as well at 00z....but it flopped at 12z reasonably....however, this is all a QPF issue. There were signs that this would produce outside of the QPF....we had lift and we had good saturation and good LL convergence. All of those pointed to an over performer somewhere....which iswhy Scott and I were both saying this morning that this will probably surprise in the positive direction somewhere in SE MA...it wasn't a dried up piece of junk like that norlun bust back in early February (or was it late January? I usually remember these dates but can't on that one) Was that around mlk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Why is nobody talking about the D4 storm? Looks like very good potential to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Why is nobody talking about the D4 storm? Looks like very good potential to me... We mentioned it in the other thread...but it still has some issues. Euro awaits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Rollo crushage.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Based on radarscope I think we're on the downswing now. Only thing that could change that is the sneaky band heading towards west wareham that I think misses or fades? Never know with these stupid things. BTW you can tell the towns weren't prepared. The truck that just plowed my road was one of the huge town trucks you only see on the main roads. They must not have called in the subcontractors or are out of cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 We mentioned it in the other thread...but it still has some issues. Euro awaits. Oh I looked in the wrong thread.. what an epic end to winter that would make. I think SNE probably gets hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Rollo crushage.... LOL, yeah. I just measured again, over 8". I did finally clear the board, it covered over again in under a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Who would have thought that I would end up with a foot tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Was that around mlk? lol i think that 1/18 event was the night of tip's vigil... but i thought that was more direct effects of a coastal low, not a norlun Jan 25-26? there was another event Feb 2-3 event again I think that wasn't a norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 lol i think that 1/18 event was the night of tip's vigil... but i thought that was more direct effects of a coastal low, not a norlun Jan 25-26? there was another event Feb 2-3 event again I think that wasn't a norlun beats me my memory is terrible. I remember coming back from skiing to a bust. Radar "may" have one last gasp left with a mini circulation coming up through Buzzards Bay or this may be the best of the rest right now. Will definitely some oddness to the radar tonight. Being "under" the best band at tilt 1 hasn't corresponded at least here to the heaviest stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 That band in western Buzzards Bay is strengthening and making progress northward....so I think that will be another great burst for those who get it....I'll let it go one more scan befre posting to see if it stays on course and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Awesomeness SE Mass/ Cape Cod in on the snowcover now too. That makes most all of Mass with a snowcover as ORH said ealier. Very nice for March 22nd. Real cool. And the snowcover is holding tough even against the March Sun angle . Lots of IP here caused the pack to be very dense and not melting easily. FTW Congrats SE Mass/CC/ and Islands on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Mattapoisett must be getting annihilated right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like one more bit of enhancement. Still snowing hard. Harder than when we had better returns awhile ago. I'm pushing towards 9, someone under the best has to be 10-12+ by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Norluns are great...they are a total PITA for forecasters...but they are still one of the true winter events that are so unpredictable on a timeline of <12 hours. How many mets would have painted 6-12" from EWB to mid-Cape as recently as 8 hours ago? Nobody....and there's a reason, you couldn't have forecasted it. You could have guessed, but you would probably be wrong 8 out of 10 times. Fascintaing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Norluns are great...they are a total PITA for forecasters...but they are still one of the true winter events that are so unpredictable on a timeline of <12 hours. How many mets would have painted 6-12" from EWB to mid-Cape as recently as 8 hours ago? Nobody....and there's a reason, you couldn't have forecasted it. You could have guessed, but you would probably be wrong 8 out of 10 times. Fascintaing stuff. Yeah these are impossible. Has to be some 10+ out there. I may push 10 but it'll be close. Love any event down here where it isn't blowing 50. Nice to have the uniform easy to measure snow (and electricity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Norluns are great...they are a total PITA for forecasters...but they are still one of the true winter events that are so unpredictable on a timeline of <12 hours. How many mets would have painted 6-12" from EWB to mid-Cape as recently as 8 hours ago? Nobody....and there's a reason, you couldn't have forecasted it. You could have guessed, but you would probably be wrong 8 out of 10 times. Fascintaing stuff. Canadian actually did pretty well... especially compared to the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah these are impossible. Has to be some 10+ out there. I may push 10 but it'll be close. Love any event down here where it isn't blowing 50. Nice to have the uniform easy to measure snow (and electricity) Pretty cool to have the enitre state now covered in snow....on March 22nd. Pretty far cry from last year when nobody had snow left (even Polar Bear Pete) with temps pushing 75-80. This night could easily be mistaken for a January night with temps in the 20s and near 30 in SE MA...and snowcover in the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Pretty cool to have the enitre state now covered in snow....on March 22nd. Pretty far cry from last year when nobody had snow left (even Polar Bear Pete) with temps pushing 75-80. This night could easily be mistaken for a January night with temps in the 20s and near 30 in SE MA...and snowcover in the whole state. My lawn was green by now this time last year. This will make us appreciate summer all that much more. We also needed this to return some normalcy to nature jmho. Heaviest totals should be along 195 between the 25 interchange and eastern New Bedford. They're getting whacked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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