SouthCoastMA Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Hopefully the euro agrees. What did it show last night? No one made comment, so I figured it was less impressive than 12z 3/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 What did it show last night? No one made comment, so I figured it was less impressive than 12z 3/19 It was pretty similar to the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I will ride which ever scenario gives me the most snow. Thanks. Ride this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Here is the RGEM 48h total precip close up. 10mm+ for SE MA/ CC and Islands. That's 0.4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Here is the RGEM 48h total precip close up. 10mm+ for SE MA/ CC and Islands. That's 0.4"+. PR_000-048_0000.gif GFS/Euro/RGEM all kind of agree on that max just sw of the MVY. Need that to shift north a bit, let's get greedy. Mildly excited about this one. If it were a normal storm I'd be very excited but these things are so fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 GGEM looks ok for SE MA and the Cape. The thing with these features is that models will likely be horrible with QPF. Features like low and mid level convergence and fronto are more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 hope I can squeak 2.5" out of this. It'll put me at the century mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 GGEM looks ok for SE MA and the Cape. The thing with these features is that models will likely be horrible with QPF. Features like low and mid level convergence and fronto are more important. I agree. I've been using it for the area of best lift/forcing. I'll add the Ukie to list of SE MA and CC hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The mid-levels looks pretty good on most guidance even back into the interior a little ways. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a 1-2" type deal for a fairly wide swath and then in a more narrow zone likely in SE MA or E MA and perhaps RI we see a much more intense stripe that yields some nice surprises. Hopefully the Euro looks good in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Navgem onboard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Is Noyes calling for a changeover in eastern MA? Then I'd feel safe knowing a good snow is coming. Sorry couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I could envision like a 2-4 inch deal back to CT River . With 4-8 east of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I could envision like a 2-4 inch deal back to CT River . With 4-8 east of that You never know with a Norlun Trough..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z Euro looks like crap for this event. No more than flurries around 495, Maybe up to an inch in Boston, 1-3 south Shore, 2-5 Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z Euro looks like crap for this event. No more than flurries around 495, Maybe up to an inch in Boston, 1-3 south Shore, 2-5 Islands Given the euro performance with earlier Norlun events those numbers are fine IMO. Lets see how it all looks later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Given the euro performance with earlier Norlun events those numbers are fine IMO. Lets see how it all looks later tonight Could you refresh my memory? Is it usually very poor with Norlun and Inverted troughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z Euro looks like crap for this event. No more than flurries around 495, Maybe up to an inch in Boston, 1-3 south Shore, 2-5 Islands Were you expecting it to show 6"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Were you expecting it to show 6"+? No, but it was a serious step down from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro def looks worse...but given the fickle nature of these setups, we'll have to wait until we are closer in to really get a better feel for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 As Scooter said models will be awful with qpf. Look at forcing and 700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 As Scooter said models will be awful with qpf. Look at forcing and 700 Well the mid levels may cause QPF to be lousy...but yeah you should look deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Well the mid levels may cause QPF to be lousy...but yeah you should look deeper. It also might just not snow that much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It also might just not snow that much if at all. Euro hasn't looked as good in one form or another for 2 runs now. That said it was woeful with an earlier inverted trough before the pattern broke. It's still close enough to watch and it's still a LONG way away for a norlun to care much either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Well the mid levels may cause QPF to be lousy...but yeah you should look deeper.Based on that. Euro says game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 It also might just not snow that much if at all. These are usually real localized so yeah..many places may not see much. It's one of those things where you and I probably should not be all that hopeful for something other than some light snows...but since the models still disagree...something like the GFS isn't impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Based on that. Euro says game on Well 700 lift wasn't great verbatim...but I didn't look deeper since it's not easy manipulating the stuff I get internally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Srefs blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Srefs blow My memory may be fuzzy but one of the big early busts I believe it was the Euro and SREFs that forecast a huge hit with a norlun that turned into a norno. Interesting those two are the most meager right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Yes they had 8" probs of > 50% only 18-24 hours out and I think we pulled off 2-3"...but it wasn't from the norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Yes they had 8" probs of > 50% only 18-24 hours out and I think we pulled off 2-3"...but it wasn't from the norlun I can't get excited about norluns outside of 12-18 hours. Looks like crap on the new NAM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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