Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 All the 12z Globals looked pretty similar imo. Whether or not they are correct, remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Southern burbs of bos right to elbow of the cape look like the current possible crosshair of these impressive echos on okx radar That would put me in the center of the crosshairs. I'll take it. Oh, you must be right...while typing this I counted 4 snowflakes! Here it comes! I would like 3 inches from this. At least three and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 That would put me in the center of the crosshairs. I'll take it. Oh, you must be right...while typing this I counted 4 snowflakes! Here it comes! I would like 3 inches from this. At least three and I'll be happy. Duxbury to Hyannis looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Quick BOX update. 000FXUS61 KBOX 211748AFDBOXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA148 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW TO PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SE MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPECOD THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOWFRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORMMAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR IT MAY PASSJUST TO THE SOUTH. DRY SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...1 PM UPDATE...MADE UPDATES TO BASICALLY THE WHOLE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE RADAR WITH SHOWERS REPORTED ATLOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WORCESTER... NORWOOD...NASHUA NH AND WILLIMANTIC CT.TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT THESE DIFFERENCESTO GET SMALLER AS THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION MOISTENS THE AIRMASS THROUGH EVAPORATION.EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS... DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION THE BEST AND INDICATES AN INCREASEIN QPF ON THE CAPE AND PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z.BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE INCREASED OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS A BIT.STILL KEEPING THEM LARGELY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES.AFTER THE 12Z ECMWF COMES IN WE WILL SEE IF PERHAPS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN ORDER.THE MORE NUMEROUS/INTENSE SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER 6 PM. EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS THROUGH 6 PM.&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...TONIGHT...STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SNOW POTENTIAL TO INCREASEWITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXISWILL PIVOT OVER SNE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BIGSURFACE LOW OUT TO SEE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANORLUN TROUGH WILL SET UP. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN CANPRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND WHERE STRONGESTLOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP BUT FORECASTING WHERE THIS HAPPENSIS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CONVERGENCE REGIONMAY SET UP AROUND THE SOUTH COAST OF MASS TO THE CANAL. ANY SHIFTIN THE LOW PRESSURES PATH WILL SHIFT THIS CONVERGENCE REGION.AGAIN THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE TRICKY TO FORECAST. BUTCONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME SOFT OF BANDING WILL OCCUR ASTOTAL TOTALS ARE WELL OVER 50 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8C/KM. ALSO LOOKING AT QPF...GFS IS STILL QUITE HIGH...YET THE EC ISNOT THAT FAR OFF. THE CANADIAN SEEMS TO PUT THE AXIS OF HIGHER QPFFARTHER NORTH AND EAST THEN ALL OTHER MODELS. RIGHT NOW LEANINGTOWARDS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF QPF. BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR A GENERAL1-3" ACROSS RI AND SE MA...HIGHEST AMOUNTS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPECOD. LOW PROB FOR 4"+ IF LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW CAN DEVELOPBUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINESAT THIS TIME.FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES...TAKING ALL OF THELIFT AND MOISTURE WITH IT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLEACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE FIZZLING OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DISPLAY A NEGATIVE TILT ASUPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NW ZONES BY THEAFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHTHE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM UP TO THE MID30S TO LOW 40S...STILL BELOW AVERAGE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Woah is this a weird system. Clear skies above me in patches (mainly mid-high clouds). Just some scattered lower clouds around. Sun is out. It will burst for 20 seconds in like a football field sized area of snow and then stop. Then start again. Can see looking out a few miles just patches of snow that aren't very wide but are actually decent in small areas. Dynamic, weird system. What a PITA for you forecasters. Huge, good flakes. That is what I was getting also. But last 20 minutes it's now a solid cloud pack. I did get 4 flakes about 5 minutes ago. Solid, large, lonely white flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 That is what I was getting also. But last 20 minutes it's now a solid cloud pack. I did get 4 flakes about 5 minutes ago. Solid, large, lonely white flakes. steady flurries here now. Satellite is cool. Check out the area between the main cloud shields east of Delaware. Sharp line moving east but clouds developing behind it. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20130321&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Dont see this ob too often at ACY in mid-afternoon of Mar 21st...esp the temp KACY 211802Z 34006KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV009 M01/M03 A2972 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 P0001 T10111033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Dont see this ob too often at ACY in mid-afternoon of Mar 21st...esp the temp KACY 211802Z 34006KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV009 M01/M03 A2972 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 P0001 T10111033 29f NOW. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Dont see this ob too often at ACY in mid-afternoon of Mar 21st...esp the temp KACY 211802Z 34006KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV009 M01/M03 A2972 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 P0001 T10111033 Will what do you think down here? How was the Euro? I know norlun's are not the Euro's strength. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Light snow here now. Steadily falling for the past 40 or so. Vis is about 3sm. The harbour is absolutely dead calm, can see the reflection of the JFK library in the water from a mile away. The snowgrowth is actually not too bad. A very pretty snow falling. I have no complaints about the little mini bands overhead dumping some snow, however little it may accumulate. Off to the Carney Hospital, dad fell yesterday delivering packages and can barely walk, might have some ligament damage to the knee judging by swelling and pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 You can see the bands setting up over SE MA. Someone could get a good dumping there later on. That stuff is separate from the stuff near ACY up through CT and BOS. That's where the good stuff will be I think...near GHG and esp south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 One thing I love about these. Bright sun and snow falling at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 You can see the bands setting up over SE MA. Someone could get a good dumping there later on. That stuff is separate from the stuff near ACY up through CT and BOS. That's where the good stuff will be I think...near GHG and esp south. Looks like the ACY stuff might be some ML fronto. Its showing up at 850mb on spc mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like the ACY stuff might be some ML fronto. Its showing up at 850mb on spc mesoanalysis. Yeah 850-700 stuff. Cool to see..maybe that can finger into CT and ORH-points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow, all of the sudden steady light snow with nice puffy flakes here at downtown crossing. Not weenie snow anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah 850-700 stuff. Cool to see..maybe that can finger into CT and ORH-points east.Yeah I'm hoping for a tickle finger tonight of an inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like the ACY stuff might be some ML fronto. Its showing up at 850mb on spc mesoanalysis. Looking at the older Euro, it was from that area that it triggered the "serious" stuff tonight, but still kind of just barely missed. Looks west of the old euro though, and looks like it may setup just west of me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah I'm hoping for a tickle finger tonight of an inch or 2 What happened to 2-4 east of the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What happened to 2-4 east of the river?Still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah radar really blossomed over the area in the last couple scans. PYM/TAN and points SE. Nie band up by BVY as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Unbelievable little screwhole here about 3 miles wide right over my house. Sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What happened to 2-4 east of the river? He didn't say which river. Overcast here and 30F, high of 32F so far with no melting of the snowcover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Updated 12z Global Models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Flurries in Salem. Man it's cold out, I don't think I saw any melting today and there's ice on the ground. Now steady light snow with the sun out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Ripping here. Temp diving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Ripping here. Temp diving I think this event is going to be pretty good for places like UUU, EWB, PYM, HYA and FMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Ripping here. Temp diving Yeah, TAN dropped 3F in 30min when the snow came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I think this event is going to be pretty good for places like UUU, EWB, PYM, HYA and FMH Yeah, TAN dropped 3F in 30min when the snow came in. If we can get the banding at night it'll stack. That was a wall of white with that last band and now in between it's steady accumulating (if at night) snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Bright sunshine in west rox at the end of my drive to hospital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If we can get the banding at night it'll stack. That was a wall of white with that last band and now in between it's steady accumulating (if at night) snow. If ACY can pull off +SN and 29/28 everyone can play with this even during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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