MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 0z GFS for NYC .25 + of precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_048_precip_p48.gif 0z Nam wasn't impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 RGEM looks even drier than Nam. GFS looks all alone with that much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Interesting writeup by Upton CUTOFF LOW PIVOTS FROM W-E TO N-S ORIENTATION ALONG THE HUDSONRIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES ROTATINGAROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT TRACKSJUST S OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND A STRONGER COASTAL LOWTHAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACKS TO SOF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MAINLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWATONIGHT AND THURSDAY COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM SHORTWAVESROTATING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCT TO NUMEROUS SNOWSHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTOTHURSDAY - EXCEPT OVER FAR NW ZONES WHERE SHOULD SEE SOME SCTFLURRIES.FOR NOW ONLY GOING WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION - HOWEVERWITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 50-58 FORECAST ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWAFROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS THE POTENTIALFOR LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BERULED OUT. IF THESE SNOW SQUALLS MATERIALIZE - THEN THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES - MAYBE UP TO 4 - OF SNOW UNDERNEATH THEM -DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW LONG THEY LAST. THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILLBE VERY LOCALIZED AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THISTIME TO FORECAST THESE AMOUNTS WITH ANY SPECIFICITY. FOR NOW ITAPPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT OF SNOW SQUALLS LIES ALONG AND EAST OFA LINE FROM NYC NE INTO SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z Nam has .10 + for the area with more towards eastern LI. Not a big deal though. Hi- Res Nam Hour 15 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=12ℑ=nam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_018_sim_reflectivity.gif Hour 18 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=12ℑ=nam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_018_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Interesting that Upton thinks thundersnow is possible in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Interesting that Upton thinks thundersnow is possible in this setup. Thundersnow, in snow squalls or convective banding, is possible with TTs in upper 40s and low 50s late tonight and tomorrow. Especially from NYC S&E: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/view/nam/ttotals/20130320/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 The 12z GFS gets some ligh snow into the area on Thursday for a few hours. Very light, gets a tad NW of KMMU. Sussex is completely dry. Then a few hours later it dries up and comes back again, mostly confined to the coast, but there are temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Mount holly THERE IS A CONVECTIVEFLAVOR TO THIS EVENT. SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHICH WE SUPPOSEMIGHT BE AS MUCH WEST AS EAST. WATCH THE PCPN IN THE TENNESSEEVALLEY, THAT IS THE SPOT THAT WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THETROF. FOR CONSISTENCY AND TIMING SAKE THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSEST TO THECAN RGEM WHICH PLAYS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION WRT TO TIMING ANDINTENSITY BETWEEN THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS.WELCOME TO SPRING? IMPACT BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WASISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OURCWA BASED ON THE TIMING COINCIDING WITH THE THURSDAY MORNINGCOMMUTE. MANY THANKS TO PENNDOT FOR ANSWERING SOME GENERIC QUESTIONSABOUT ROAD AND BRIDGE SURFACES THIS MORNING.FOR THIS EVENING THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR PCPN CHANCES ARE GOING TO BEIN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA WHERE WEAKER SHORT WAVES ARE MOVINGTHROUGH. CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING, THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ISPRESENT AT THIS TIME, BUT THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP. OTHERLIMITING FACTORS ARE BOTH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTSTHAT THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS TO OVERCOME.AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT THE EMPHASIS FOR BEST PCPNCHANCES SHOULD CHANGE TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. WE EVEN HAVE SOME OF THEHIER RESOLUTION ARW AND NMM MODELS KEYING ON THIS CORRIDOR. BY THENTEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER, SO HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST ACOATING OCCURRING. REASON FOR NO ADVISORY BEYOND THE PREDICTED SNOWAMOUNT IS THE NON-DISRUPTIVE TIMING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.THIS TAKES US TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE EVEN THE GFSIS FORECASTING MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MID LEVELFGEN FORCING ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOSTOF THESE FACTORS ARE NOT AS STRONG FARTHER TO THE WEST, COUPLED WITHFORECAST TT(S) INTO THE UPPER 50S AND SOME CROSS HAIRING OF SNOWGROWTH AND OMEGA GIVES THE EASTERN CWA THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OFHEAVIER SNOW FALLING FROM THE SKY. THE QUESTION STILL BECOMES WHATHAPPENS ONCE IT HITS THE GROUND AS TODAY HAS BEEN WARM. THUS IS NOTTHE MOST CONFIDENT OF ADVISORIES, BUT GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWSHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE START OR PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTEPLUS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DO NOT HAVE THE CONTACT WITH THE GROUNDLUXURY, WE HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORY.POPS ARE HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST, BUT CLOSER TO THEMELSEWHERE. WE TOOK A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peregrinator Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 39/21, flurrying on and off here in NW Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Light coating on ground, looks like snow should resume soon from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Interesting, the NWS expects snow to become more widespread, while the radar is showing scant lines of snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Very light snow falling here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Flurries on and off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Light snow bursts from time to time in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Very light snow and 33F...great to see on 3/21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Light to occasionally moderate snow in Ronkonkoma. Melting on all surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Been snowing here sine about 11am, temp just a hair above freezing. Coating on grass, trees. Have had heavy snow occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Moderate snow garden city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It just feels cold and raw today, a few flakes here and there. Yesterday felt way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Been light to very light snow here basically all day. There is a frosting on the evergreens but nothing on the ground. Temp is 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Have had steady light snow for the past half hour. Dusting on all cold surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like Nassau County's had at least light snow for an hour or so now. Just an occasional flizzard where I'm at in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Flurries now after some light, moderate and even a little heavy snow. The coating on the ground has melted and temp is 34 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Steady snow out here in KFRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We've not accumulated even a dusting on the ground so far, but the evergreens have a nice dainty frosting and the old snow piles look whiter. It's snowing decently right now. Vis might be less than a mile. 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Nice snow here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looks like southern/eastern Nassau is getting hit pretty good. Any accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Nice snow falling again. Temp dropping fast and accumulating fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Temp has dropped to 30 here in the somewhat steadier snow and the ground is now coated. Areas about 10-15 miles to my southwest seem to have been stuck in a steadier band and it shows: http://www.trafficland.com/city/ISP/camera/6262/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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