Jonger Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 STL is going to beat Lansing, Mi this year.... Prob not, but its a funny thought. 14 inches and ya caught Lansing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm doomed. Join the club. Congrats! We are all doomed. Time to congratulate Buckeye. Maybe the GGEM and Roger will score the coup, thus redeeming Roger for his forecast of a blowtorch late February? Roger will be elevated to god status if this storm finds a way to dump the heavy duty snows over top of my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 CMC snowfall output. Is this the "improved GEM" or the "Old and Broken" version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Join the club. We are all doomed. Time to congratulate Buckeye. Roger will be elevated to god status if this storm finds a way to dump the heavy duty snows over top of my backyard. Something very telling....i saw a map on JB's site and he outlines a snow axis identical to the ggem and says it's an i-80 special. This suggests the following: 1. DC is fcked. As bad as JB is, the one thing he NEVER misses a DC snowstorm. They might as well hang it up. 2. JB is infamously too south with his snow, this would indicate that not only does the ggem have a shot, but Harry could be back in the game joking aside...I still favor an Ohio river valley hit....but an extreme northern solution is definitely not out of the question....especially after the euro burped today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Something very telling....i saw a map on JB's site and he outlines a snow axis identical to the ggem and says it's an i-80 special. This suggests the following: 1. DC is fcked. As bad as JB is, the one thing he NEVER misses a DC snowstorm. They might as well hang it up. 2. JB is infamously too south with his snow, this would indicate that not only does the ggem have a shot, but Harry could be back in the game joking aside...I still favor an Ohio river valley hit....but an extreme northern solution is definitely not out of the question....especially after the euro burped today. One of the guys at GRR is not ready to buy the more southern track. Nothing is impossible but yeah i have a hard time seeing a track that brings the heaviest snows this far north to my backyard with the epic block. Stranger things have happened though i suppose. IF it is a real bomb i suppose that could be overcome but nothing yet really suggests that. It is a very unusual pattern to say the least so yeah who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm doomed. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Is this the "improved GEM" or the "Old and Broken" version? Far as I know, it is the improved GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 One strange thing ( well sort of i suppose ) i noticed is how far detached the CMC is from it's ensembles/ensemble mean which looked more like the GFS @00z and more like 12z euro on the 12z run. Guess i'll start following these a bit more to see how well they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 What did the 12z euro ensembles look like today Harry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Compared to March, late February was a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 One strange thing ( well sort of i suppose ) i noticed is how far detached the CMC is from it's ensembles/ensemble mean which looked more like the GFS @00z and more like 12z euro on the 12z run. Guess i'll start following these a bit more to see how well they do. Is the GEM now called the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Maybe the GGEM and Roger will score the coup, thus redeeming Roger for his forecast of a blowtorch late February? I'm still waiting for my Peak Energy Super Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 What did the 12z euro ensembles look like today Harry? The mean is pretty close to the OP BUT there is basically two camps with one that takes a bit of a more southern track vs the other which is near and north of the river to I70. Keep in mind there is 51 members so yeah there tends to be this kind of spread this far out. A couple get as far north as N.OH but all show a coastal taking over which heads east/ene out to sea clipping SNE/The Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Is the GEM now called the CMC? Per the GEM website no but some ( for whatever reason.. Maybe it was once called the CMC? ) have always referred to it as the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The uncertainty here, kind of has me uneasy.... Still looking for a complete whiff to the south. The CMC snow map shows some snow for this part of the subforum, but the HPC maps show the heavier snow well, well south.... So, I guess I will just have to wait and see. Snowblower gassed up just in case...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Through 57hr, the 0z NAM is further north and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM is def north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 0z NAM accumulating snow up to Peoria, and Champaign at hour 60. 3" line into Chicago at hour 69, 6"+ for LAF. Just north of Dayton, gets crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Holy hell! Monster hit from IND to CMH and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The NAM has a beast of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow, a monster snowstorm for Indiana and Ohio. Skilling didn't seem too enthused about the storm, stating it looks to largely miss south. Usually he holds onto weenie hope/hype till the end. Maybe it's because it's late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 May need to fire up the video camera and gas up the car on Sunday. NAM says the promise land is about 30 miles to my north. Not good to see the "south camp" slowly dwindle in numbers...although it is just the NAM and all of the good models have yet to run this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow, a monster snowstorm for Indiana and Ohio. Skilling didn't seem too enthused about the storm, stating it looks to largely miss south. Usually he holds onto weenie hope/hype till the end. Maybe it's because it's late in the season. He's just like us. I think he's just trying out some reverse psychology for a change with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Wow, a monster snowstorm for Indiana and Ohio. Skilling didn't seem too enthused about the storm, stating it looks to largely miss south. Usually he holds onto weenie hope/hype till the end. Maybe it's because it's late in the season. I'm sorry I'm going to miss out on the fun up here. Still, I had two good storms in February so I can't really complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Goodness, what a storm. I love where I sit...unfortunately, I sit in South Carolina for the next week, to enjoy some golf and relaxation with the family...vs being in Muncie, which looks to be in a very nice spot for this. The weather nut in me is actually going to miss not being there...if this unfolds as appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS is definitely on it's own after today's model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 NAM seems to be earlier with the transfer compared to other models. snowfall amounts are a lot lower in IL due to it. this model chaos is giving me a headache. at this point i am forecasting 0-12in for Peoria, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm sorry I'm going to miss out on the fun up here. Still, I had two good storms in February so I can't really complain. Ditto. 3 storms over 6" since Feb. 1st - can't complain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Interesting disco update from DVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL947 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013.UPDATE...REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE FRONT PORTION OF THE ENERGY ISNOW ONSHORE AND ENOUGH TO SAY THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOWFURTHER NORTH THAN MOST SOLUTIONS THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NAMONLY TAKES A PERCENTAGE OF THE DIFFERENCE. MORE LIKELY THEOTHER LATER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS ECMWF AND GFS WILL BE MORE ACCURATE.KEY POINT IS WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS WEEKEND. THE AMOUNTS AND AREASWILL TAKE MORE TIME.CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH TO HIGH...PER NUMEROUS TOOLS ANDTECHNIQUES OF SNOW OVER MOST/ALL THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS coming north as well... That is an interesting piece from DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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