Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 NAM suppressed at this range is probably the best sign for me to move along for MBY. Good luck to those along and south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Angrysummons leaving a trail of destruction in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 NAM suppressed at this range is probably the best sign for me to move along for MBY. Good luck to those along and south of I-70. its actually a bit stronger than 6z. Starting to align with the euro, 998ish slp to e.KY then coastal transfer due east. I-70 actually has room for a northern bump in track and some intensity in strength, but any weaker or further south this is a southern OH event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The nam is the STL snow lover's wet dream. This is somewhat like Feb 1993 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Angrysummons leaving a trail of destruction in this thread. I think best thing at this point is for winter to be over... just to end this forum madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The Euro is shredded out. Doesn't align with that. it's amazingly similar. You're either trolling or drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 From MCI to CVG could be a very nice event. What a winter for MCI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I nailed it Your couple inches of slop for that area will likely bust, so please don't use this thread to brag about your pessimism with 72 hours left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Less dynamic and sheared. Low pressure centers don't tell you that. 12z NAM doesn't work. Either weaken or go north. I'll put you down for drunk trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Less dynamic and sheared. Low pressure centers don't tell you that. 12z NAM doesn't work. Either weaken or go north. That is not always the case. The atmosphere is not static. While the NAM is weird. The H5 charts as convoluted as they appear explain things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 That is not always the case. The atmosphere is not static. While the NAM is weird. The H5 charts as convoluted as they appear explain things a bit. exactly...I'm not seeing anything 'meterologically' impossible with the euro or the nam. The argument that it has to be one extreme or the other, (suppressed or stronger and more north), seems like an argument for the sake of an argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Whiff to the south for NE IL/NW IN? LOT AFD from this morning SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONCERNS FOR SNOW INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ENERGY MOVES DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH HELPING IT TO AMPLIFY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH THEN SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS SOME TIME SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS IS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY BULLISH GFS NOW SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN JET ENERGY THAT WILL AID THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC SO TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY. OVERALL THE SOUTHERN CWA REMAINS FAVORED FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW BEING THE PRECIP TYPE. Probably not a total miss. Looks like the southern areas of LOT could get something. Not clear if that means S of I-80 or S of I-55 or S of I-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah...that "express" has been MIA since AT LEAST the winter of 2007-2008. Ummm.... you mean since 2011-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 6z GFS: 12z GFS: A NW change, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z GFS definitely bumped precip north in MO, IA, IL...but then gets "weird" and doesn't really translate in IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I see this and think...how can it completely miss LAF? But it most likely will... 12z UKie at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 exactly...I'm not seeing anything 'meterologically' impossible with the euro or the nam. The argument that it has to be one extreme or the other, (suppressed or stronger and more north), seems like an argument for the sake of an argument. We have two closed Upper Level Lows. One over the Dakotas and one over the NE/SE Canada. This vort max swings around the trough of the first ULL and there isn't much room for it to amplify between itself and the ULL over the NE. The NE ULL is also moving out but not fast enough for this system to slot in behind it. It looks more like it eventually shears out and gets absorbed over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I see this and think...how can it completely miss LAF? But it most likely will... 12z UKie at 72 hours. 3:21 12z UK 72.gif ukie likes Angry. That sucker looks like it's gonna explode. Then again it could be the ukie being the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 12z GFS would be kinda annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 6z GFS: 12z GFS: A NW change, it appears. might just be slower too. Hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The 12z GFS would be annoying. 3:21 12z GFS snow.gif What a surprise for Central Indiana.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GGEM is relentless. 12z run drives a low overtop EVV at 991mb, at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GGEM is relentless. 12z run drives a low overtop EVV at 991mb, at 84 hours. yep pretty wild. 96 hrs it has a low over Indy and another one popping in the southern midatlantic. Driving rainstorm here...maybe a quick changeover but considering it's a transfer it would probably dryslot to flurries. glad it's the ggem showing it and not the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The GEM has 20 inches of snow for North STL and 2 inches of rain with 1-2 inches of snow 25 miles SE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Still a fair amount of uncertainty it seems. I like the idea of sticking snow here, probably enough to shovel, but it's too early to get a good handle on amounts. I do think that this is easily an advisory and possibly a warning criteria event wherever the heavier band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 12z GEFS mean is north with total QPF...and an overall boost in amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I see this and think...how can it completely miss LAF? But it most likely will... 12z UKie at 72 hours. 3:21 12z UK 72.gif seeing the later panels, that's about the northern extent of the low track....due east from there. If I hadn't seen the later panels I'd swear it was going to pull a ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GGEM is relentless. 12z run drives a low overtop EVV at 991mb, at 84 hours. really slows down too when it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Ummm.... you mean since 2011-12? No. The poster was referring to a storm track that dumps big snow on STL, IND and DTW at the same time (I.E. Evansville to Cleveland). In any event, lock in the 12z GGEM please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 No. The poster was referring to a storm track that dumps big snow on STL, IND and DTW at the same time (I.E. Evansville to Cleveland). In any event, lock in the 12z GGEM please!!! Yes I second that...lock in ggem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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