snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Lock in that GFS run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I had a long post two nights ago regarding a few issues with this system...that may either keep it from moving too far north or from developing into a strong storm at all. It was at an odd hour and got buried at the bottom of a page so most may not have seen, however wave spacing is still an issue...if the polar branch is a convoluted mess it may be hard to get a far north solution due to the waves destructively interfering with eachother and keeping everything strung out and south. If our wave has room to take off this weekend then a track that supports snow up to Chicago and into lower MI and possibly far southern ON is still possible. Long story short, I would not jump on any solution until our energy is sampled for it looks like the 12z Friday runs. Not gonna lie though, kind of happy the GFS joins the Euro in dropping several inches of wet snow on me in Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS may be going south... Iowa misses out completely, which doesn't matter since I've seen enough snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow that shift south is huge! Wasn't expecting that drastic of a shift. SW Ohio looks to get nailed if that holds true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro remains the king. Maybe one of the dozens of American models will someday be able to match the superiority of the the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 oh the 00z GEM. Good stuff. Always entertaining. Lock this in mom nature. do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 oh the 00z GEM. Good stuff. Always entertaining. Lock this in mom nature. do it! What does it show??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What does it show??? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=gemglb http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Have at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow, another borderline storm for Louisville. To be honest I love extreme weather and if it's going to be cold, then let it snow. Spring will arrive at some point, we just have to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 0z Euro looks similar track wise to the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If this turns into a snow event for STL, the way it's set up with the typical late January cold/suppression track is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What a huge waste of the available early Spring cold. Seems hard to win after Feb for last couple of years. Ultra boring pattern looks to lock in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. It's still a little early to write it off completely, due to needing to get a better sample to determine wave spacing, remaining blocking, etc., but the propensity of the evidence is against those of us north of I-70. By the way, you Alek haters might want to hold off in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Gonna be hard for anything to get to far north with the super block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. It's still a little early to write it off completely, due to needing to get a better sample to determine wave spacing, remaining blocking, etc., but the propensity of the evidence is against those of us north of I-70. By the way, you Alek haters might want to hold off in the future. Agreed. Please direct such hatred towards AngrySummons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 This storm drops 6-10 inches along and South of 70 and we could see record lows and record low highs go afterwards with the forecasted mid-level temps and snow pack to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wagons south each run now. Liking my early couple inches of slop for the OH valley call. Enjoy guys! Careful you don't hurt yourself patting yourself on the back. The event hasn't even happened yet. I nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I nailed it Great Call. We down here in the deep South of the Lakes & Ohio Valley deeply appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I doubt it you sound angry, angry this sucker ain't com'n north. In fact this might be a true rare HORVS. (historic ohio river valley snowstorm). Congrats Louisville, cincy and portsmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It must come north to develope. Can't, no storm. Energy will be sheered out. latitude has nothing to do with it. It can dig all it wants, grab as much gulf moisture as it wants, but when it tries to turn the corner and hits the block....east it goes and yes it will shear out but not until it's done it's damage from st.louis up the ohio river, (has a ton of moisture potential). I bet we see qpf start beefing up on model runs even though the low pressure itself won't be that strong. Probably a much better storm in the lower miss and ohio valleys than anything it will do along the eastcoast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol to congratulating or admonishing posters 3 days out from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 lol to congratulating or admonishing posters 3 days out from the storm. true until it happens, no one should be kudo'ed. But Alek's call from a couple days back looks pretty damn good right now. When you have all the models begin to go in the direction of the euro inside of 96 hours....that's a pretty solid indication. I wouldn't bet against it. but we'll see...stranger things have happened in the model world and furture runs could start showing the low cutting to Ohio again....or N.Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 DVN still clinging to hope things trend north. ALL OF THESE WAVE ENERGY POCKETS TOEVENTUALLY TRY AND PHASE IN A COMPLEX EVOLUTION ACRS THE ROCKIES ANDGRT BSN FRI INTO SAT...AND THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACRS THE MID CONUSTHE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEL THEMODELS STILL TRYING TO CATCH UP AND GRAB A HANDLE OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN.THUS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A TREND BACK NORTH...ESPECIALLY TAKING INTOACCOUNT A POSSIBLE FUJI-WARA AFFECT WITH EVENTUAL NORTHERN ROCKIESCLOSED UPPER LOW ACTING ON THE INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERNSTREAM. To me it seems like models are playing catchup towards the Euro. A move back northward seems highly doubtful to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 true until it happens, no one should be kudo'ed. But Alek's call from a couple days back looks pretty damn good right now. When you have all the models begin to go in the direction of the euro inside of 96 hours....that's a pretty solid indication. I wouldn't bet against it. but we'll see...stranger things have happened in the model world and furture runs could start showing the low cutting to Ohio again....or N.Carolina. Anyone can rip and read the Euro. Of course it's always the model of choice until proven otherwise. But, there have been a few people saying suppression or a south track is the more likely outcome. OHweather has laid out some nice/reasoned thoughts that seem to get ignored. I've haven't felt very good about the prospects for LAF despite the GFS and GGEM having been on the hit train. That being said, we're still 3-4 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 when dvn is talking about the "fuji-wara affect" you know it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Anyone can rip and read the Euro. Of course it's always the model of choice until proven otherwise. But, there have been a few people saying suppression or a south track is the more likely outcome. OHweather has laid out some nice/reasoned thoughts that seem to get ignored. I've haven't felt very good about the prospects for LAF despite the GFS and GGEM having been on the hit train. That being said, we're still 3-4 days out... anything is possilbe and anyone from chicago to lexington is in the game. For me personally, I'm moving all my chips on the space that says "southern route". ...granted I might need money for a cab home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Don't want to start getting too excited down here until perhaps tomorrow's 12z runs...but I certainly thought when I left Cleveland on March 10 to come back down here that I was done with any appreciable snow. Just got a surprise half inch snow shower and for better or worse the models show a nice swath of snow just north of the Ohio River three days out. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Quite the move of the ensembles as well, some don't have much more than a line of showers to the south and snowshowers to the north lol......... i just checked out the 6z ensemble panels....all but 2 or 3 look pretty juicy. None indicate 'showers' only. Don't want to start getting too excited down here until perhaps tomorrow's 12z runs...but I certainly thought when I left Cleveland on March 10 to come back down here that I was done with any appreciable snow. Just got a surprise half inch snow shower and for better or worse the models show a nice swath of snow just north of the Ohio River three days out. hmm I think you should transfer to ohio state next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I want to clear up something. I-70 can mean Kansas City, St. Louis, Indy all the way into Ohio,. I highly doubt this storm is to far North for St. Louis. If it is, it won't be by much and it will still hit a good portion of St. Louis. But St. Louis has historically been tied to Chicago storms, Laf storms, Indy Storms, Detroit Storms, in some cases Louisville storms. The STL, Indy/Laf, Detroit express is typically STLs rodeo. This storm could still miss STL and hit LAF, Det. or hit STL and go to those places or Indy or Southern Ohio. One thing is for sure, there is very cold air and blocking in place. a lot of late March cliches need to be tossed. Ground temps are very cold, the airmass before, during, and after is progged to be well below normal with reinforcing CAA. The snow pack over North America is deep creating a 80% or so albedo feedback everyday pretty much anywhere over it because it's so deep. With reinforcing cold air the cold air in place is amazing for this time of year. The temperature gradient to help fuel cyclogensis is great. The NAM is normally way over warm and amplified. Look at the mid level cold air field being pulled down fort this around the Eastern Vortex, the storm it self and the Rockies. I agree with buckeye. I am not sure where but this is going to be a long wide late season thump day or night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah...that "express" has been MIA since AT LEAST the winter of 2007-2008. The STL, Indy/Laf, Detroit express is typically STLs rodeo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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