Chicago WX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Dude! We're getting hammered. It. Is. A. Lock. I hope so. But I have fears of a mini-March 2008. Still bitter about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I just looked at the last 7 runs of the Euro, only two of them showed a surface center of circulation inland before the 03/20/12z run. The GFS and GGEM have been very consistent with that Idea. The GFS has been further north granted. There have been two runs that the GEM showed a more southern solution and both of those were due to convective feedback issues. When you see a model put down very heavy precip close to the center of circulation that is a sign of convective feedback. When that happens the model can not move the system as far north as it should. I've been watching this system closely, the GEM and the GFS have shown a much stronger ridge over the Eastern part of the country as this ejects out, due to the fact it moved the system near the Canadian Maritimes (sp) out slightly faster than the Euro. Remember that mother nature always tries to put things in balance. and quite honestly I don't think the Euro had the right idea with the ridge between the two systems. The 20/12z run of the Euro finally started to show the ridge at H5 like it should but quickly flattens it out. I think that solution is still incorrect, I expect that the 21/0z Euro will deepen the surface low and move it north ala the GEM and GFS. Call me nuts if you will, but that's the way I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Boy how can Toledo get a storm? At this point it's just unreal how everything continues to miss, our biggest snow so far has been 4". If it's gonna be cold, might as well get a nice foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Had a conversation with someone on my way out of work a little while ago and they mentioned channel 7 was showing 14" for the area on Sunday. Whether you mention a disclaimer on air or not, it's ridiculous to show such solution (Especially one that has no support) to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Had a conversation with someone on my way out of work a little while ago and they mentioned channel 7 was showing 14" for the area on Sunday. Whether you mention a disclaimer on air or not, it's ridiculous to show such solution (Especially one that has no support) to the public. Yeah that was asinine. All it does is make you lose credibility to the public. When a real threat shows up someday and he puts numbers up no one will take it as seriously, even if it's the day before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 18z is way unrealistic with the snow ammounts imo..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 So here are my thoughts, a Winter Storm Watch will be issued for almost the entire state of Missouri and the far SE parts of IA. A winter advisory will be needed from the Quad Cities to Chicago. The Winter Storm watch will be extended from the far SE parts of IA to Gary IN and point east and south, Most of the OH valley will be impacted by this storm. Confidence level moderate to moderately high. Refer to my post # 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 18Z GFS dumps even more snow north of I70 than the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 You mean we're not buying the 18z GFS which has around 14" for LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 You mean we're not buying the 18z GFS which has around 14" for LAF? I mean run out and buy milk and bread by the masses! LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I just looked at the last 7 runs of the Euro, only two of them showed a surface center of circulation inland before the 03/20/12z run. The GFS and GGEM have been very consistent with that Idea. The GFS has been further north granted. There have been two runs that the GEM showed a more southern solution and both of those were due to convective feedback issues. When you see a model put down very heavy precip close to the center of circulation that is a sign of convective feedback. When that happens the model can not move the system as far north as it should. I've been watching this system closely, the GEM and the GFS have shown a much stronger ridge over the Eastern part of the country as this ejects out, due to the fact it moved the system near the Canadian Maritimes (sp) out slightly faster than the Euro. Remember that mother nature always tries to put things in balance. and quite honestly I don't think the Euro had the right idea with the ridge between the two systems. The 20/12z run of the Euro finally started to show the ridge at H5 like it should but quickly flattens it out. I think that solution is still incorrect, I expect that the 21/0z Euro will deepen the surface low and move it north ala the GEM and GFS. Call me nuts if you will, but that's the way I see it. IWX agrees with you,but I still hate to bet against the king. .LONG TERM........PREFERRED GFS ALG W/WELL CLUSTEREDSPRTG GFSENS TAKES A WELL DVLPD MID LAT CYCLONE UP ALG THE OH RVRSAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT AND WOULD IMPLY A SIG WINTER STORM LOCALLY OFWHICH FITS THE PREVAILING PATTN OF LATE. CONFLICTING 00Z GEM/ECMWF GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND EJECT A SLWR AND MUCH FLATTER MID LVLWAVE SUN NIGHT-MON YET DO NOTE A SHIFT IN 12Z GEM TWD GFS SOLUTIONALBEIT SLWR. REGARDLESS AND IN REFLECTION OF CONTD SPREAD...WILLSTAND W/UPWARD YET CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SAT NIGHTTHROUGH MON.OTRWS GIVEN CONTD INTENSE DOWNSTREAM HIGH LAT BLOCKING GENERALLYFOLLOWED COOLEST GUIDANCE BLENDS DYS 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I want to lol @ caplan but... He's a TV met and ratings rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 IWX agrees with you,but I still hate to bet against the king. .LONG TERM........PREFERRED GFS ALG W/WELL CLUSTEREDSPRTG GFSENS TAKES A WELL DVLPD MID LAT CYCLONE UP ALG THE OH RVRSAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT AND WOULD IMPLY A SIG WINTER STORM LOCALLY OFWHICH FITS THE PREVAILING PATTN OF LATE. CONFLICTING 00Z GEM/ECMWF GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND EJECT A SLWR AND MUCH FLATTER MID LVLWAVE SUN NIGHT-MON YET DO NOTE A SHIFT IN 12Z GEM TWD GFS SOLUTIONALBEIT SLWR. REGARDLESS AND IN REFLECTION OF CONTD SPREAD...WILLSTAND W/UPWARD YET CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS SAT NIGHTTHROUGH MON.OTRWS GIVEN CONTD INTENSE DOWNSTREAM HIGH LAT BLOCKING GENERALLYFOLLOWED COOLEST GUIDANCE BLENDS DYS 5-7. I agree that its hard to bet against the king, centuries ago I would be beheaded...LOL Early in 2012 the Euro got a upgrade and it significantly improved it's hurricane forecast for the Eastern seaboard. And rightly so (see Sandy.) However up here in MPX land it seems to have downgraded the accuracy of the winter storm forecast. I used to beat our pro mets based on the Euro alone, not so much this year. Contrary to most posters on this board, I believe the gem has done fairly well since it's upgrade, you may still have to cut it's QPF by about 25% both on the depth and the width and account for convective feedback issues that arise from time to time, but it's still a good improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looking less impressive for Toronto as per 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Looking less impressive for Toronto as per 18z GFS... just another step towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Skilling posted this snowfall map extending through the rest of the month, which shows mainly the snow for this potential system. Increments are T-1", 1-3", 3-6", 6-9", 9-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so does this match well??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Honestly at this junction why even show that. What positivity could possibly come out of showing that right now? They did it just to break ball's. Your right. I apologize. I did overstep by saying what I said. IND does do a good job but there are others around them that perform a bit better IMO... Is it possible for you to change that avatar? I agree that its hard to bet against the king, centuries ago I would be beheaded...LOL Early in 2012 the Euro got a upgrade and it significantly improved it's hurricane forecast for the Eastern seaboard. And rightly so (see Sandy.) However up here in MPX land it seems to have downgraded the accuracy of the winter storm forecast. I used to beat our pro mets based on the Euro alone, not so much this year. Contrary to most posters on this board, I believe the gem has done fairly well since it's upgrade, you may still have to cut it's QPF by about 25% both on the depth and the width and account for convective feedback issues that arise from time to time, but it's still a good improvement. Euro still has it's moments but yeah it has taken another hit with the so called upgrade. Wasn't long ago every model at some point tried to bring a storm ( the one that went around MI and hit Chicago/LAF etc ) up this way and the euro said not and stayed the course and ended up correct. Thing to watch ( to see if the euro might be wrong ) is the euro ensembles and well they have been trending towards a further nw solution and a slew of them track the storm north of the river ( closer to I70 ) across IL/IN and OH. Not saying the euro will be wrong but if it is this is usually when that happens and thus when the model does not agree with it's ensembles. Plus a number of the euro ensembles are still further south and thus south of the river and so they could go back south. This will make it hard for anything to come too far north ( north of say I80 ) unless it can break down ( and rise ) as quick as it has dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 or this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 or this one Damn...that would be one hell of a hit for us Northern Indiana folks. Would no doubt be the largest winter storm for quite some time. (In late March nonetheless!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Congrat's LAF on the map MN meso's posted above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I am going to go out on a limb and say......... no, wait, no I'm not. I have already been asked twice "What is with the 14" of snow for Sunday night"..... To which, I reply "Wait and see." . I think Caplan had the right idea... alert people that snow in some form is on the way. I honestly hope it misses...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 so does this match well??? Impossible. No LAF hole o death. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I am going to go out on a limb and say......... no, wait, no I'm not. I have already been asked twice "What is with the 14" of snow for Sunday night"..... To which, I reply "Wait and see." . I think Caplan had the right idea... alert people that snow in some form is on the way. I honestly hope it misses...... not even close to a lock on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 not even close to a lock on that Nothing is a lock yet. Thats why it kills me that every time a storm potential is there, so many our already ready to writeoff snow in their own backyards before the thing is even sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Nothing is a lock yet. Thats why it kills me that every time a storm potential is there, so many our already ready to writeoff snow in their own backyards before the thing is even sampled. It's tempting here to write it off because of the block and the super cold air, as well as the frequent storms taking a more suppressed track through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys since February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS may be going south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It's tempting here to write it off because of the block and the super cold air, as well as the frequent storms taking a more suppressed track through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys since February. It amazes me that it is the end of March and we are still talking of "suppressed snowstorms"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS much further south. Poor LAF gets the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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