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Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th


cyclone77

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For the sake of making this post short, I will only post one image and that is of the 700mb chart from the RGEM, at 03z.  I don't know if you can still see the 03z 700mb chart on the SPC meso page, but the 04 should be close.  I would encourage you to find the 700mb chart from the Nam at 03z, it looks vastly different.  Not sure what it means, but if I would guess I would bet on the RGEM before I would the NAM, the 700mb chart  off the GFS looks very similar to the NAM.

 

 

CONUS_RGEM_700_GPHVORT_03HR.gif

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so If I read the the RGEM and the UKIE  right, are the foreign models coming in a tad further north than the NCEP GFS and NAM?

 

0z GFS came north in MO, IL, and IN with QPF, compared to its 12z run. Alas, its 12z run looks like a bad run in hindsight. 

 

LAF added around 0.20 to 0.40" on the 0z UK, versus the 12z run. Heh.

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You're going to melt in Dallas this summer. :(

 

Good luck and stay cool!

lol, will say this, at this one complex, if I get lucky I'll have one heck of a East-SE view over Ft Worth, if there wasn't this hill behind the complex next door I'd have a perfect view right into downtown Ft Worth.

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0z GFS came north in MO, IL, and IN with QPF, compared to its 12z run. Alas, its 12z run looks like a bad run in hindsight. 

 

LAF added around 0.20 to 0.40" on the 0z UK, versus the 12z run. Heh.

 

I saw the 12z GFS this morning before I went to work and dismissed it.  6hr rains of 3", followed by another 6hr rainfall event of 3" over the same area off the Carolina cost was acting to keep the surface low to far south.  Those rainfalls were unrealistic IMO.

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At Meridian, MS, the GFS, NAM, and RAP all had SE winds progged at 6z.  But the obs are N at 6z (10 degrees) and now a special ob says they've backed slightly to 330 degrees.

 

KMEI 240625Z 33012KT 2SM -RA BR BKN005 OVC012 14/13 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W-N RAB17 CIG 003V007 PRESRR P0000 $
KMEI 240558Z 01003KT 4SM BR BKN008 OVC012 14/14 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND NW RAB0459E43 CIG 004V009 SLP019 P0002 60011 T01390139 10178 20139 402000089 56014 $

 

At Hattiesburg, the models range from SE (NAM), to S (RAP), to WSW (GFS).  Actual wind?  350 degrees.

 

KPIB 240555Z AUTO 35003KT 1 1/4SM OVC002 16/14 A2959 RMK AO1 10160 20160 57003

 

So what does that mean?  As of now, our Low is farther south than progged, by about 75-100 miles.  As for the PRESRR at MIE, I'm not really sure what to make of it.  To me, that would indicated that the SLP is moving away (so south or east) from MIE).  If so, then that means we're dealing with an SLP that's farther south than progged, and not moving north.

 

The real question though is if this matters at all, since we're still in the formative stage of our cyclone, and some random wobbles are to be expected.

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Before I turned off the laptop and "went to bed" it looked like the 500mb shortwave was a bit sharper than the NAM/GFS 0z projected for 6z. Will be interesting to see if that, along with what Thunder Road pointed out, will mean anything. I'm riding razor's edge here in Athens and do not know what to expect in 18 hours :lol:

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