Geos Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Satellite view of the gathering storm. Cold cloud tops over Iowa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well I went in the wrong direction from 1-3" to 2-4" in my backyard. No will get nothing and like it. That is ok. Come on Spring...I need some 50's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam gives the STL metro the biggest snow event since Feb 1993 or Jan 1982 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Or now. Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You have had 37" of snow this year. You want to talk about this somewhere else? Not here!! and I believe I can express my concerns and or discuss this storm or the lack of a big storm on this forum..last I looked it is a forum for discussion!! So chill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 For real though, pretty obvious my earlier call for 6-10" for LAF is gonna bust pretty bad. With the consensus south shift, I'm gonna lop it in half and go 3-5" final call. Hopefully that doesn't end up a bullish call. Amazing we'll miss on the heaviest snow to the south in late March. Congrats BMG, CMH, IND, STL, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 .63 thru hr54.... throw in the low ratios and borderline 2m temps... thinking 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 For real though, pretty obvious my earlier call for 6-10" for LAF is gonna bust pretty bad. With the consensus south shift, I'm gonna lop it in half and go 3-5" final call. Hopefully that doesn't end up a bullish call. Amazing we'll miss on the heaviest snow to the south in late March. Congrats BMG, CMH, IND, STL, etc. why would you ignore the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Whens the last time STL got a foot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 why would you ignore the euro? Euro is by itself now for LAF. Everything else is south. Consensus rules the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro is by itself now for LAF. Everything else is south. Consensus rules the day. well if nothing else this will be a great case study. If LAF gets pummeled....euro truly is king. I still think anyone in IL, IN, and OH are in the game, fairly dynamic system. .closer to the central part of the states, especially in IN, I think you have a great shot. On the downside, I think max amounts in IN and OH are 8" lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 assuming the nam is close...(big assumption)....ILN has some 'tweaking' to do with those warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 well if nothing else this will be a great case study. If LAF gets pummeled....euro truly is king. I still think anyone in IL, IN, and OH are in the game, fairly dynamic system. .closer to the central part of the states, especially in IN, I think you have a great shot. On the downside, I think max amounts in IN and OH are 8" lollipops. I give props to the GFS for sniffing out the late south move. Boo to the NAM as usual. I think there's 10" possibilities in Indiana, around the I-70 corridor...but it probably won't translate into OH due to occlusion/transfer issues. STL area will be the big winner, 12" or more looks possible out there. Hope they get whomped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Looking forward to our dusting in Madison tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I give props to the GFS for sniffing out the late south move. Boo to the NAM as usual. I think there's 10" possibilities in Indiana, around the I-70 corridor...but it probably won't translate into OH due to occlusion/transfer issues. STL area will be the big winner, 12" or more looks possible out there. Hope they get whomped. true about the gfs...assuming this southern trend verifies. As far as the precip cutoff due to occlusion in OH, that has become less evident as well in the latest model runs. The primary seems to hold on for so long and now the 500 low is cutting to our south instead of right over us. I've always been more concerned about waa with this one, (that threat seems to be lessening as well). Agree with you, jackpot is somewhere in southern IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 assuming the nam is close...(big assumption)....ILN has some 'tweaking' to do with those warnings I certainly got my south trend...NAM still the only model showing over half an inch liquid frozen precip here, but looking for rare late March snow in the ORV here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Whens the last time STL got a foot of snow? officially at Lambert Field the last 12.0 or greater snow was January 31-31 1982. 31 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I certainly got my south trend...NAM still the only model showing over half an inch liquid frozen precip here, but looking for rare late March snow in the ORV here. You're golden. Amazing for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Top 10, and ties, March snowstorms for STL. Pretty impressive list really. 12.1" - March 24, 1912 11.9" - March 9-10, 1958 10.8" - March 5-6, 1989 10.3" - March 12-13, 1937 10.0" - March 4, 2008 9.5" - March 7-8, 1978 9.1" - March 19, 1906 8.6" - March 20, 1924 8.5" - March 2-3, 1912 8.4" - March 26-27, 1913 8.4" - March 26-27, 1947 8.4" - March 23-24, 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You're golden. Amazing for late March. I'm on a valley floor and some of the snow will fall during the day, so I'll play things very cautious with the accum forecast. One concern of mine is if the low ends up tracking north of the river, which the Euro, while a bit of an outlier, shows, I'll probably either dry slot or mix. QPF wise I'm good though, over half an inch on just about everything (GFS very close) and I'm slowly feeling better about temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm on a valley floor and some of the snow will fall during the day, so I'll play things very cautious with the accum forecast. One concern of mine is if the low ends up tracking north of the river, which the Euro, while a bit of an outlier, shows, I'll probably either dry slot or mix. QPF wise I'm good though, over half an inch on just about everything (GFS very close) and I'm slowly feeling better about temperatures. Yeah, seems temps have become less of an issue for areas further south...again, amazing for late March in my book. I think at this point, the Euro is in the wrong with its more "northern" track...but it's been waffling anyway. Spring time winter storms seem to give the models fits. Good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Serious TSSN threat tomorrow/tomorrow evening withthe best omega right in the DGZ. Snowfall rates are going to be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Yeah, seems temps have become less of an issue for areas further south...again, amazing for late March in my book. I think at this point, the Euro is in the wrong with its more "northern" track...but it's been waffling anyway. Spring time winter storms seem to give the models fits. Good luck down there. Thanks. The GFS occludes and stalls the low immediately to my west which would be a disaster, warm bubble sits right overhead. Will be watching closely tomorrow for sure. Thinking 2-4" here but could be more if a NAM like solution verifies and the surface low doesn't track any farther north than my latitude...will be really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam cut me back a little..1.024 liquid. Gonna be a mess going to work at 5 pm though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gfs looks pretty damn good for the laf crowd.....now step back from the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 0z RGEM went a good bit northwest, specifically for us Indiana folks. I guess I'll have to wave the Maple Leaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Thanks. The GFS occludes and stalls the low immediately to my west which would be a disaster, warm bubble sits right overhead. Will be watching closely tomorrow for sure. Thinking 2-4" here but could be more if a NAM like solution verifies and the surface low doesn't track any farther north than my latitude...will be really close. I'll be watching the progress of that first slug of moisture entering the state from the south. The speed and juice of that may give us a clue early whether this will be a legit hammering or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Gfs looks pretty damn good for the laf crowd.....now step back from the edge GFS has been a disaster. Totally different than the 12 run, for up here. Well, a lot of models have been, to an extent I guess. What a cluster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'll be watching the progress of that first slug of moisture entering the state from the south. The speed and juice of that may give us a clue early whether this will be a legit hammering or not. Yeah. For me I'm more worried about temps than QPF. Even if you briefly start as rain you should quickly wet-bulb cool enough for all snow and won't get into any significant WAA...so you should remain all snow. Will be curious to see how much the precip shield starts to decay from east to west across the state once this occludes and once the coastal starts taking over...I'd guess CMH sees at least half an inch of liquid regardless...question is if it will be a lot more. Edit...although even with .5" of liquid I wouldn't expect more than 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS has been a disaster. Totally different than the 12 run, for up here. Well, a lot of models have been, to an extent I guess. What a cluster... Regardless.... Time to shut down the model links and fire up the radar. Good luck to all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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