Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th


cyclone77

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 942
  • Created
  • Last Reply

One thing I've typically learned over the years is that with these QPF outputs, when they seem unrealistically high, is cut them by a third or so. 

 

I don't really want to crush anyone's hopes but I don't think I'd bite on more than Eight or Nine inches in the bullseye out of this system.  There are a lot of interactions that will have to go just perfectly in order to produce some of these 12"+ totals, and that rarely happens.  And the models have tended to be a bit over the top this Winter sooooo......  

 

Again not trying to rain on anyone's parade, or in this case snow on anyone's parade...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My best guess is heaviest snows probably cut right through the St. Louis Metro to over or just a touch North of Indianapolis based on everything I've looked at.... It could be a hair further South if the system ends up taking a bit longer to get its act together though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT mentioning LES tonight and tomorrow.

 

 

EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LAKE-ENHANCEMENT AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD. EVEN SOME
WEAK RETURNS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN OFF MKE
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 13/14 C...WHICH IS FAIRLY MARGINAL. HOWEVER...
INVERSION HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY RISE INTO THE 5000-7000 FT AGL RANGE BY
LATE SUNDAY AND TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
LONG FETCH AND STRONG WINDS PROVIDING MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECTED SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. FOCUS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY LAKE/MCHENRY IL COUNTIES
TONIGHT...THE IL SHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH. HAVE INDICATED GENERALLY 1-3 INCH
TOTALS NEAR THE LAKE AND ESPECIALLY CHICAGO/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little update from DVN

 

 

UPDATE    ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013    ..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW     IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE TAKING A VERY CLOSE LOOK AT  OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN THIS EVENING.   MODEL SPREAD ON THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS WAS SURPRISINGLY HIGH...AND  WOULD HAVE LIKED TO SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My best guess is heaviest snows probably cut right through the St. Louis Metro to over or just a touch North of Indianapolis based on everything I've looked at.... It could be a hair further South if the system ends up taking a bit longer to get its act together though.

 

I was thinking the same thing about Indiana. I'm predicting Mottster in Lebanon to be as close as anyone in the forum to be in the bullseye with B-rent right behind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My best guess is heaviest snows probably cut right through the St. Louis Metro to over or just a touch North of Indianapolis based on everything I've looked at.... It could be a hair further South if the system ends up taking a bit longer to get its act together though.

 

I was thinking the same thing about Indiana. I'm predicting Mottster in Lebanon to be as close as anyone in the forum to be in the bullseye with B-rent right behind.

I'm throwing a snow board in the front yard on my way to work tomorrow morning. I won't be able to do six hour increments, but better than nothing.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The separation in the waves on satellite representation looks much much closer than was probably progged.... I don't know if this will come way further N than what was modeled, but I'd be watching that.  Cold cloud tops starting to really blossom over Iowa too in response to this process.  Hmmm... probably nothing big but something to watch here...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...